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Bulgarian lottery repeat probed

InternationalInternational: Bulgarian lottery repeat probed

The Bulgarian authorities have ordered an investigation after the same six numbers were drawn in two consecutive rounds of the national lottery.

The numbers — 4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42 — were chosen by a machine live on television on 6 and 10 September.

An official of the Bulgarian lottery said manipulation was impossible.

A mathematician said the chance of the same six numbers coming up twice in a row was one in four million. But he said coincidences do happen.

Minister of Physical Education and Sport Svilen Neykov said the commission established to investigate would provide answers towards the end of the week.

The lottery organisers described it as a freak coincidence and pointed out that the numbers were drawn in a different order.

Nobody won the top prize in the first draw.

But a record 18 people guessed all six numbers in the 10 September draw.

Each will win 10,164 leva (5,196 euros; $7,643).

Thanks to erik braspenning for the tip.

BBC

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23 comments. Last comment 5 years ago by KY Floyd.
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time*treat's avatar - radar

United States
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March 30, 2005
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Posted: September 16, 2009, 2:53 pm - IP Logged

Interesting that people would bet on an exact repeat in a 6-ball drawing. Skeptical

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

    CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
    ORLANDO, FLORIDA
    United States
    Member #4924
    June 3, 2004
    3835 Posts
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    Posted: September 16, 2009, 3:14 pm - IP Logged

    Interesting that people would bet on an exact repeat in a 6-ball drawing. Skeptical

    I find it very hard to believe that 18 people would play the same numbers from the previous draw. Something smells, wonder if these 18 people knew each other?

      maringoman's avatar - kobold
      Massachusetts
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      April 14, 2006
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      Posted: September 16, 2009, 3:48 pm - IP Logged

      Fraud! Where the Interpol at??

        savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
        adelaide sa
        Australia
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        April 11, 2006
        2738 Posts
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        Posted: September 16, 2009, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

        hmm he said the odds of same 6 numbers 2 in a row. must be a real small pool , 6 out of 42 or something.

         

        anyhow i bang on about playing last weeks numbers in the next weks draw, and do play em on our 7 from 45 game. no luck yet but this is encouraging news to me.

          "  I WON THE LOTTO , SUBMIT YOUR BEGGING  REQUESTS HERE " 1900 BEG4BUKZ

        2014 winnings

        JAN -$48.50;  FEB  -$77.5; MAR -$18.05;

         

        <div_prefs id="div_prefs">

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: September 16, 2009, 4:29 pm - IP Logged

          I find it very hard to believe that 18 people would play the same numbers from the previous draw. Something smells, wonder if these 18 people knew each other?

          I was looking at a few lotteries and playing the previous winning combination may be a better strategy than playing 1 2 3 4 5 6 which is a popular strategy in lotteries with a *small pool of numbers.  For example:

          Playing the previous winning combination in the West Virgina Cash25 since it began on 02/06/90 would have matched 5/6 three times, 4/6 38 times and 3/6 316 times returning $1446 of the $2894 it cost to play.

          Playing 01 02 03 04 05 06 in the West Virgina Cash25 since it began on 02/06/90 would have matched 5/6 one time, 4/6 47 times and 3/6 291 times returning $1011 of the $2894 it cost to play.

          * I said small pool of numbers because in most lotteries the odds of a combination hitting once is usually more than 1/4M let alone hitting twice.

          * Thoses who can, do * 
          * thoses who can't, just talk *
          Roll Eyes 

            Avatar
            New Jersey
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            September 4, 2005
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            Posted: September 16, 2009, 5:37 pm - IP Logged

            Actually. if this was impossible, the probability of winning the lottery would be zero.

              Avatar
              FL
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              July 19, 2009
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              Posted: September 16, 2009, 5:39 pm - IP Logged

              it's possible..

                time*treat's avatar - radar

                United States
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                March 30, 2005
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                Posted: September 16, 2009, 6:51 pm - IP Logged

                I find it very hard to believe that 18 people would play the same numbers from the previous draw. Something smells, wonder if these 18 people knew each other?

                ... 18 out of a population of about 8 milion or so.. playing the same 6 of 42 numbers. Roll Eyes

                If it's not a scam, some poor fortune cookie maker is gonna get it. LOL

                What I'd like to know is where did that ''mathematician" get one in four million from? Crazy

                In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                  Littleoldlady's avatar - basket
                  Clarksville
                  United States
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                  July 15, 2002
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                  Posted: September 16, 2009, 7:29 pm - IP Logged

                  If they think that is possible I got some "real estate" on Mars to sell them.  the crooks (thieves) are at it again.  It is called manipulation.

                  If you know your number is going to hit, have patience and then KILL IT!

                  You never know when you will get another hit.

                    Avatar
                    Columbia City, Indiana
                    United States
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                    December 9, 2003
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                    Posted: September 16, 2009, 8:08 pm - IP Logged

                    "The numbers - 4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42 - were chosen by a machine live on television on 6 and 10 September."

                    The article doesn't state whether the "machine" is an RNG or a mechanical ball-type machine.

                    Does anyone know?

                    "An official of the Bulgarian lottery said manipulation was impossible."

                    This is the standard argument used by lotteries that draw their numbers electronically, and I'm also skeptical about the "mathematician's" figures. At minimum, the odds of identical numbers being drawn back-to-back would have to equal the 6-out-of-6 odds of the entire matrix, so even if it's just a 6/42 matrix like Colorado's Lotto, the odds against such an event would be at least 1 in 5,245,786.

                    Come, Pinky; we must prepare for tomorrow night...

                    Jim

                      rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                      -Ridge Runner- Oracle of the Appalachians
                      Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                      Posted: September 16, 2009, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

                      "An official of the Bulgarian lottery said manipulation was impossible".

                      So there, it's settled. Everyone knows you can't manipulate a computer and everyone knows there is no such thing as corrupt lottery officials. Case closed.

                      I believe that.

                      I also believe that the Brain Suckers from Mars are hiding under my bed.

                        four4me's avatar - gate1
                        MD
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                        Posted: September 16, 2009, 8:47 pm - IP Logged
                        The article doesn't say the numbers were draw in the same exact order out of the machine if one was used the balls could have been draw the same but came out of the machine in a different order.
                         
                         
                         
                        As for 18 people playing the same numbers....   18 people out of how many thousands of players Is feasible since many people sometimes play the previous numbers which were drawn. And some of those players might have played the same numbers who didn't bother to check the previous results.

                        Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                                       I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
                          johnph77's avatar - avatar
                          CA
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                          Posted: September 16, 2009, 11:53 pm - IP Logged

                          The mathematician's math is a bit off. In a 6/42 lottery there is a 1::5,245,786 chance of any six-number combination being drawn, including a duplicate set of the previous draw.

                          Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                          Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                           =^.^=

                            Avatar
                            NY
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                            Posted: September 17, 2009, 1:00 am - IP Logged

                            I find it very hard to believe that 18 people would play the same numbers from the previous draw. Something smells, wonder if these 18 people knew each other?

                            I think everybody here knows that 1,2,3,4,5,6 is an extremely popular combination, even though many other people think it's less likely to come up than other combinations. Plenty of people also think that the same numbers repeating again is less likely than any of the other combinations coming up, but whether it's 1,2,3,4,5,6, the numbers that came up in the last drawing, or any other combination you  choose, they've all got the same odds. Plenty of people play numbers that are cold, thinking that they're due. Others play numbers that are hot, thinking they're more likely to come up. Playing the most recent set of winning numbers is just one way of playing numbers you think are hot. I'm a bit surprised it was only 18. My guess is that if we had the data from MM and PB we'd be seeing hundreds of people playing the numbers from the previous drawing.

                            As for the odds, it's a 6/49 game, so the game odds are just under 1 in 14 million. I've got no idea where the 1 in 4 milion figure might have come from, but 1 in 14 million really isn't any more accurate just because those are the game odds. The drawings happen twice a week, and every drawing is another chance to repeat the numbers from the previous drawing. So far, there have been 3 drawings this month. There was a 1 in 14 million chance that the 2nd drawing would repeat the first, and there was a 1 in 14 million chance that the 3rd would repeat the second. That means there was a 1 in 7 million chance that either the 2nd or 3rd would repeat the previous one. With 104 drawings every year there are 103 chances to repeat the previous drawing, so the chances of this happening once in any given year is 103 in 14 million, or about 1 in 136,000.

                            Now factor in another 99 lotteries in other countries and states, and it becomes 1 in 1,360. Then consider that people would still be surprised if the results had been a repeat of any result from the past year. At that point it's a foregone conclusion that there are going to be repeats.