Derby..Rick G..

Rick G...Big Brown got the worst PP he could get..You think he will still win?...I think I might go with Pryo and some other horse...

Big Brown/Cool Coal

Eight Belles

Smooth Air

Thanks for the reply..

Tiggs, I think Big Brown will do fine from the 20 post.  In fact it's a good spot for him.  He'll be able to avoid early taffic problems in the stampede to the first turn.  He has enough speed to get in good position early on the outside.  In this race that's a good spot to be.  Pyro ran a terrible race last....not a good prep for winning the Derby and I wouldn't recommend him.

My picks are in pretty much in agreement with dbello....

Big Brown

Smooth Air

Eight Belles

I don't think anyone's going to beat Big Brown for the next three races.  I think he'll take the Triple Crown.  Smooth Air was second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby and was best of the rest of the field in that race.  The Florida Derby was the key race this year as it had the strongest field of all the other prep races.  The filly, Eight Belles beat a very tough field in her last start and did it in good fashion.  Her trainer, Larry Jones opted to run her in the derby instead of the Oaks which is a good sign and she gets a good post, #5.  She should do well.

I'm betting a decent chunk of $ on Big Brown to win and place and exacta/trifecta boxes on those three.

Good luck to you and all players!!!

Kentucky Derby:

                 Rick, it looks as though Big Brown will shine tomorrow, with

  Colonel John up for 2nd and a tight photo between denis of cork and eight belles for third.

                               Big Brown

                               Colonel John

                                Denis of cork / Eight belles. 

                                                                               Good luck everyone..         

RE:  Big Brown....I don't think he's just going to win the race, I think he'll blow them away by five or more lengths.  Maddog and I both agreed after his performance in the FL Derby...this horse looks like a new Secretariat.   When he's asked in the stretch he explodes.  It would be dangerous to ignore him, regardless of his post position or odds.  But as we all know, anything can happen in the Derby and in a 20 horse field racing luck plays a big hand.  Today the track was sloppy so track conditions might play a role too.

Hey Rick, et al

Watch for #9 Pyro @ 6/1

And I can/t resist the #7 Big Truck lL/S @50/1

Hope to See you in the winner's circle-

Good Luck All,

EddessaKnight

Big Brown ran the big race we all thought he would paying  6.80  5.00  4.80.  Congrats to all who had a bet on him.

I feel real bad about Eight Belles...she was the best filly in the country.

Yes I had the ext. with 5 10 20

 I like Eight Belles from the beginning

 To Bad for her

Very nice handicapping Maddog.  If you played Big Brown to win and boxed and keyed some exactas and trifectas youv'e got some big dough! 

Also agree with Rick G that Big Brown has a good chance at winning the Triple Crown; definite favorite for the Pimilico Stakes.  In the Belmont will have to watch for Dennis of Cork to menace though, as he actually has the better breeding to go the 1 1/2 mile distance, and in the Derby he was in 20th position about the first third of the race and came flying like a freight train overcoming post 16 and a tough start to get up for 3rd.

I played races 7,8,9, and 10 making about 50dollars profit.  I lost the Derby bets through strange dumb luck though; I boxed 5 horses and Eight Belles wasn't one of them; she would have been my sixth pick.

Here is what I played:

RACE 7:  $1 boxed trifecta 7,8,9; result was 7, 9, 8; I got about $118 payout for the boxed trifecta; 1/2 of the 236 dollar payout. 

RACE8:  $2 boxed exacta 1 and 9; result was 9-8-1; the 1 got photoed out of 2nd by only a head; thus the bet was lost; regret not betting the 9 to win as the 9 payed $30.  Took 4 dollar loss despite good handicapping.

RACE9:  $1boxed exacta 3,5; result was 5-1; took 2 dollar loss.  Too bad I didn't play the 3 to win.

RACE 10: $4win Colonel John #10; 10 place #10; $2 win #14 for longshot play; $5boxed exacta 10-20; $1boxed exacta on 5 horses 10,14, 15,17,20; $1 boxed trifecta 1-14-20; $1 triple key 10,20 with 14; $1 triple key 10,20 with 15; $1 triple key 10,20 with 17; $2 superfecta 10-20-14-17; net loss of $60 on the Derby despite having the winner as a horse played in all of the exactas and trifectas

Biggest mistake of the day was not playing the pick 4; it payed 14,000 and in each race one of my top 2 picks one each of the 4 legs; if I had invested $32 in the pick 4 could have won over 10 grand!  Race 7 was the saving grace for me in coming ahead for the day; but with more bets played and more chances taken on the exotics like the daily double and pick 3's and pick 4's the payout would have been larger; allocated too much on trifectas in the Derby and thus the lackluster $50 ahead for the day.  On the other hand it was better to come ahead 50 than lose 72.

Congratulations to RickG and Maddog; both executed very professional handicapping.