Your math is correct. Here is my thinking on playing the dogs
or horses and maybe it can be applied to the lottery.
I look for about 10 different things when I try to decide if a dog can win.
If it meets all ten items of the criteria the odds are real good that dog will
win. The better the dogs the better you can predict the winner --but they
are still dogs and who knows what might distract them.
So you look for those situations where you have the best chance of winning
and only play those races. I have chosen as high as 60% winners and average
close to 50%. The good thing is that my winners may not be what every one
else thinks will be the winner so sometimes the payoffs are real good.
That is my goal for pick three or A&N. Play fewer times and play when it looks
like I have a good chance to win.
The other night I played 3 bets and lost all 3. (One of the bets the dog was
clearly faster and better than the other dogs--he just got crowded at the start
and could not recover.) But they were all good high percentage bets and I know
that next time I might hit 2 of 3 and maybe even all 3.
The old addage you have to be in it to win it is true but if you play 500 games
before you win $250 what have you accomplished?