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I've done very well in beating these games without Probabilty and Theory on game play involved in my System ..How many times have you Predicted in Pick 5 games 5 out 5 , 4 out 5 , 3 out 5 and 2 out 5 ???

State of Mind United States Member #93949 July 10, 2010 2117 Posts Offline

Posted: January 15, 2013, 1:55 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by CajunWin4 on January 15, 2013

jimmy4164 ,

I've done very well in beating these games without Probabilty and Theory on game play involved in my System ..How many times have you Predicted in Pick 5 games 5 out 5 , 4 out 5 , 3 out 5 and 2 out 5 ???

CW4

I've never tried, and consequently, never "Predicted" a lottery draw result. I got lucky one time in the PA Cash 5 and matched 4/5 with a Quickpick. Since I've never matched 5/5, my ROI is under 50% in this game. It sounds like you've had the good fortune to do better. Congratulations!

United States Member #116348 September 8, 2011 2084 Posts Offline

Posted: January 15, 2013, 3:30 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on January 14, 2013

Lakerben,

I want to stick with this simple (5,2) model until the probabilities of winning with subset selection can be compared to the obvious one in ten chance of a "Jackpot" when 2 numbers for a ticket are chosen purely at random. I'm still waiting for someone else to do it, preferably someone who believes the subset approach will be superior.

--Jimmy4164

Average life expectancy of humans are short compare to odds of large scale matrix. Flipping a coin 100 x, theoritically tells me the ratio is 0.5, but the ratio could be 20/80 or 40/60 or 80/20. The theoritical ratio will even out as you increase the flips (but my life span is short). Statistics and Probabilty may seem mutually inclusive, but they are completely two different concepts(Everything lies with interpretation of probability) . A data is more on the physical side, probability is more of inference, hence the intuition of human brain sets in. I love this topic, hope guys will address the concept of this thread ' Reduce model', the pros and cons in open-minded way, devoid of any condescency from both sides, is all about sharing.

Atchafalaya Basin United States Member #90218 April 24, 2010 10277 Posts Offline

Posted: January 15, 2013, 3:35 pm - IP Logged

Then what is the use of this INFORMATION ? It can't help us Win . It just some reading material for People on Probabilty and Theory . It's really of NO USE !!! I have done Ok in my Predictions and Wins from my own System , Method and Theories on games .

United States Member #116348 September 8, 2011 2084 Posts Offline

Posted: January 15, 2013, 4:00 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by CajunWin4 on January 15, 2013

Then what is the use of this INFORMATION ? It can't help us Win . It just some reading material for People on Probabilty and Theory . It's really of NO USE !!! I have done Ok in my Predictions and Wins from my own System , Method and Theories on games .

The question posed is whether 'reduced model can increase the odds in winning?', over larger matrix. Is not whether you've done well with your predictions or not. If you are gathering data and selecting picks whether by stats(graphs,skips,sum, +1,-1 etc) or intuition (probabilty base on choosen data), you're still using information.What am saying is, every ideal should be given a thought, some may choose not to comment, but if one choose to comment , start with the subject in question , give reason why the premise of concept is right or wrong without condescency, afterall, this a forum to share ideals, and ideals are information. I believe in the reduced model, and I can explain my thoughts on that, some may have opposite view and point out the flaws by countering with their views. You just can't say is wrong without explanation, and then result to personal verbiage(not you, have read comments not related to the subject between members and is not pretty!) when asked to explain.

State of Mind United States Member #93949 July 10, 2010 2117 Posts Offline

Posted: January 16, 2013, 1:39 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by CajunWin4 on January 15, 2013

Then what is the use of this INFORMATION ? It can't help us Win . It just some reading material for People on Probabilty and Theory . It's really of NO USE !!! I have done Ok in my Predictions and Wins from my own System , Method and Theories on games .

CajunWin4,

The purpose of the (5,2) Lotto is to provide you with a model to use in testing Lotto System ideas. For example, if Stack47 were to translate his ideas involving 19,000 sets of 28 numbers to the scaled down (5,2) world here of 5 sets of 4 numbers, we might be able to see more clearly just what he is hypothesizing.

Atchafalaya Basin United States Member #90218 April 24, 2010 10277 Posts Offline

Posted: January 16, 2013, 1:42 am - IP Logged

Jimmy4164 ,

What you need to do is Convert the Drawn Lines into their Deltas for this to work ....

CW4

HOW IT WORKS:

It's actually very simple. The idea occurred to me when I thought about how a computer software program would store a winning lotto, keno or lottery number on disk. Storage space is always an issue with computers, so data compression is used whenever possible. To compress a lotto number, the software might store the "delta" of each number instead of the lotto number itself.

What's a delta? The delta is the difference between a number and the previous number.

For example, look at this winning lotto number:

3-9-18-19-27-33

Now here is the same number, represented as deltas:

3-6-9-1-8-6

All the numbers are smaller, yet it still represents, and can be converted back into the same winning lotto number!

I created this number by subtracting each of the lotto numbers from the number right before it. The first number is still three because there is no number previous to three. For the second number, 9-3=6, third number, 18-9=9, fourth number, 19-18=1, fifth number, 27-19=8 , and sixth number, 33-27=6.

To turn the delta numbers back into the original winning lotto number or keno number, we do a series of simple additions, always adding the result of the addition just done to the next number in the series: The first number is 3, second number, 3+6=9, third number, 9+9=18, fourth number, 18+1=19, fifth number,19+8=27, sixth number, 27+6=33.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

It means that you can pick lotto numbers and keno numbers by guessing numbers between 1 and 15 instead of 1 and 50! Numbers higher than 15 will occur, but 90% of the time they don't! Please bear in mind that all the examples on this page assume a six-digit game, with numbers from 1 - 50. The values in these examples will vary, based on your game (the software can adjust these values automatically.)

WHAT'S HAPPENING? WHY DOES THIS WORK?

It works because the smaller numbers represent the typical distribution of winning keno and lotto numbers. In other words, in a six digit game like this, the numbers are usually spaced 1-15 digits from each other. Since this spacing stays somewhat consistent from winning number to winning number, our scheme to represent them as smaller delta numbers works.

By guessing deltas that follow our rules instead of guessing the keno or lotto numbers themselves, your guess will have the same number distribution characteristics as other winning numbers. Does this give you an advantage? Well, read on.

WAIT! THERE'S MORE! IT GETS BETTER!

I studied the distribution of delta numbers in a year's worth of winning numbers from the New York, California and Michigan lotteries. When I did this, I discovered something exciting but at first, truly puzzling. They are not randomly distributed, but instead have a clear bias toward smaller numbers!

It turns out that nearly 60% of the time, a delta calculated from a winning number will be SIX or less! 30% of the time, the delta will be THREE or less!

In fact, ONE is the single most popular number, occurring almost 15% of the time. That translates to more than half the time in any given six-number pick. The predominance of the number ONE means that adjacent number pairing in winning lotto numbers must be quite common (and it is quite common, just look at any series of winning lotto numbers.)

Therefore, most of the Delta numbers you will be guessing can be picked from an even smaller set of numbers!

Why the low number bias exists in our calculated delta numbers is a challenge to explain. I expected to find a nice even distribution, perhaps clustered around 7 or 8, since that would be the average spacing when 50 is divided by six numbers. Instead, I see numbers below 8 coming up much more often. Why?

Well, there are valid statistical reasons this happens. When you consider that the sum of all the Deltas have to add up to the highest lotto digit, it's apparent that there isn't room for many large numbers. But the patterns I'm seeing still often seem out-of-the-ordinary. One possibility is that the balls in many lotto picking machines at times do not thoroughly mix. The excess of small delta numbers, and especially the predominance of ONE, mean that balls that went in the lotto machine next to each other are coming up together! It's not obvious in the lotto numbers themselves, but the delta calculation reveals the pattern.

To visualize this, imagine a lotto number machine where the balls all enter lined up in numerical order (like they do here in Michigan.) Now imagine that the numbers are picked without mixing the balls. What would happen? Well the picks would still be somewhat random, of course. But the balls nearest the exit ports of the machine would be the ones most likely to be picked. And All the balls near the exit port are consecutive numbers, since that's how they went into the machine. You might not know what numbers they are. But if you track Deltas, those number pairs would show up as ones. Now, this is an extreme example. But if the balls don't mix enough, you can see how some of these tendencies could remain.

Lending support to this theory are apparent trends (look at the raw data) in the frequency of number ONE in the deltas. The beginning of the chart shows lots of ones. Later on, they taper off, then start appearing more often again. This sort of behavior might occur with changes in the operation of the lotto machine. Perhaps some weeks the balls are allowed to mix longer than at other times, owing to TV schedules or other factors. An astute observer might pay attention to these trends and play lots of adjacent pairs when there are many delta ONEs coming up.

State of Mind United States Member #93949 July 10, 2010 2117 Posts Offline

Posted: January 16, 2013, 12:37 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by CajunWin4 on January 16, 2013

Jimmy4164 ,

What you need to do is Convert the Drawn Lines into their Deltas for this to work ....

CW4

HOW IT WORKS:

It's actually very simple. The idea occurred to me when I thought about how a computer software program would store a winning lotto, keno or lottery number on disk. Storage space is always an issue with computers, so data compression is used whenever possible. To compress a lotto number, the software might store the "delta" of each number instead of the lotto number itself.

What's a delta? The delta is the difference between a number and the previous number.

For example, look at this winning lotto number:

3-9-18-19-27-33

Now here is the same number, represented as deltas:

3-6-9-1-8-6

All the numbers are smaller, yet it still represents, and can be converted back into the same winning lotto number!

I created this number by subtracting each of the lotto numbers from the number right before it. The first number is still three because there is no number previous to three. For the second number, 9-3=6, third number, 18-9=9, fourth number, 19-18=1, fifth number, 27-19=8 , and sixth number, 33-27=6.

To turn the delta numbers back into the original winning lotto number or keno number, we do a series of simple additions, always adding the result of the addition just done to the next number in the series: The first number is 3, second number, 3+6=9, third number, 9+9=18, fourth number, 18+1=19, fifth number,19+8=27, sixth number, 27+6=33.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

It means that you can pick lotto numbers and keno numbers by guessing numbers between 1 and 15 instead of 1 and 50! Numbers higher than 15 will occur, but 90% of the time they don't! Please bear in mind that all the examples on this page assume a six-digit game, with numbers from 1 - 50. The values in these examples will vary, based on your game (the software can adjust these values automatically.)

WHAT'S HAPPENING? WHY DOES THIS WORK?

It works because the smaller numbers represent the typical distribution of winning keno and lotto numbers. In other words, in a six digit game like this, the numbers are usually spaced 1-15 digits from each other. Since this spacing stays somewhat consistent from winning number to winning number, our scheme to represent them as smaller delta numbers works.

By guessing deltas that follow our rules instead of guessing the keno or lotto numbers themselves, your guess will have the same number distribution characteristics as other winning numbers. Does this give you an advantage? Well, read on.

WAIT! THERE'S MORE! IT GETS BETTER!

I studied the distribution of delta numbers in a year's worth of winning numbers from the New York, California and Michigan lotteries. When I did this, I discovered something exciting but at first, truly puzzling. They are not randomly distributed, but instead have a clear bias toward smaller numbers!

It turns out that nearly 60% of the time, a delta calculated from a winning number will be SIX or less! 30% of the time, the delta will be THREE or less!

In fact, ONE is the single most popular number, occurring almost 15% of the time. That translates to more than half the time in any given six-number pick. The predominance of the number ONE means that adjacent number pairing in winning lotto numbers must be quite common (and it is quite common, just look at any series of winning lotto numbers.)

Therefore, most of the Delta numbers you will be guessing can be picked from an even smaller set of numbers!

Why the low number bias exists in our calculated delta numbers is a challenge to explain. I expected to find a nice even distribution, perhaps clustered around 7 or 8, since that would be the average spacing when 50 is divided by six numbers. Instead, I see numbers below 8 coming up much more often. Why?

Well, there are valid statistical reasons this happens. When you consider that the sum of all the Deltas have to add up to the highest lotto digit, it's apparent that there isn't room for many large numbers. But the patterns I'm seeing still often seem out-of-the-ordinary. One possibility is that the balls in many lotto picking machines at times do not thoroughly mix. The excess of small delta numbers, and especially the predominance of ONE, mean that balls that went in the lotto machine next to each other are coming up together! It's not obvious in the lotto numbers themselves, but the delta calculation reveals the pattern.

To visualize this, imagine a lotto number machine where the balls all enter lined up in numerical order (like they do here in Michigan.) Now imagine that the numbers are picked without mixing the balls. What would happen? Well the picks would still be somewhat random, of course. But the balls nearest the exit ports of the machine would be the ones most likely to be picked. And All the balls near the exit port are consecutive numbers, since that's how they went into the machine. You might not know what numbers they are. But if you track Deltas, those number pairs would show up as ones. Now, this is an extreme example. But if the balls don't mix enough, you can see how some of these tendencies could remain.

Lending support to this theory are apparent trends (look at the raw data) in the frequency of number ONE in the deltas. The beginning of the chart shows lots of ones. Later on, they taper off, then start appearing more often again. This sort of behavior might occur with changes in the operation of the lotto machine. Perhaps some weeks the balls are allowed to mix longer than at other times, owing to TV schedules or other factors. An astute observer might pay attention to these trends and play lots of adjacent pairs when there are many delta ONEs coming up.

"I studied the distribution of delta numbers in a year's worth of winning numbers from the New York, California and Michigan lotteries."

If you think for a while about the thousands of years that must transpire before all the possible combinations of most lotteries have been drawn, you will understand why I highlighted "a year's worth" above.

New Mexico United States Member #86100 January 29, 2010 8019 Posts Offline

Posted: January 16, 2013, 2:21 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by CajunWin4 on January 16, 2013

Jimmy4164 ,

What you need to do is Convert the Drawn Lines into their Deltas for this to work ....

CW4

HOW IT WORKS:

It's actually very simple. The idea occurred to me when I thought about how a computer software program would store a winning lotto, keno or lottery number on disk. Storage space is always an issue with computers, so data compression is used whenever possible. To compress a lotto number, the software might store the "delta" of each number instead of the lotto number itself.

What's a delta? The delta is the difference between a number and the previous number.

For example, look at this winning lotto number:

3-9-18-19-27-33

Now here is the same number, represented as deltas:

3-6-9-1-8-6

All the numbers are smaller, yet it still represents, and can be converted back into the same winning lotto number!

I created this number by subtracting each of the lotto numbers from the number right before it. The first number is still three because there is no number previous to three. For the second number, 9-3=6, third number, 18-9=9, fourth number, 19-18=1, fifth number, 27-19=8 , and sixth number, 33-27=6.

To turn the delta numbers back into the original winning lotto number or keno number, we do a series of simple additions, always adding the result of the addition just done to the next number in the series: The first number is 3, second number, 3+6=9, third number, 9+9=18, fourth number, 18+1=19, fifth number,19+8=27, sixth number, 27+6=33.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

It means that you can pick lotto numbers and keno numbers by guessing numbers between 1 and 15 instead of 1 and 50! Numbers higher than 15 will occur, but 90% of the time they don't! Please bear in mind that all the examples on this page assume a six-digit game, with numbers from 1 - 50. The values in these examples will vary, based on your game (the software can adjust these values automatically.)

WHAT'S HAPPENING? WHY DOES THIS WORK?

It works because the smaller numbers represent the typical distribution of winning keno and lotto numbers. In other words, in a six digit game like this, the numbers are usually spaced 1-15 digits from each other. Since this spacing stays somewhat consistent from winning number to winning number, our scheme to represent them as smaller delta numbers works.

By guessing deltas that follow our rules instead of guessing the keno or lotto numbers themselves, your guess will have the same number distribution characteristics as other winning numbers. Does this give you an advantage? Well, read on.

WAIT! THERE'S MORE! IT GETS BETTER!

I studied the distribution of delta numbers in a year's worth of winning numbers from the New York, California and Michigan lotteries. When I did this, I discovered something exciting but at first, truly puzzling. They are not randomly distributed, but instead have a clear bias toward smaller numbers!

It turns out that nearly 60% of the time, a delta calculated from a winning number will be SIX or less! 30% of the time, the delta will be THREE or less!

In fact, ONE is the single most popular number, occurring almost 15% of the time. That translates to more than half the time in any given six-number pick. The predominance of the number ONE means that adjacent number pairing in winning lotto numbers must be quite common (and it is quite common, just look at any series of winning lotto numbers.)

Therefore, most of the Delta numbers you will be guessing can be picked from an even smaller set of numbers!

Why the low number bias exists in our calculated delta numbers is a challenge to explain. I expected to find a nice even distribution, perhaps clustered around 7 or 8, since that would be the average spacing when 50 is divided by six numbers. Instead, I see numbers below 8 coming up much more often. Why?

Well, there are valid statistical reasons this happens. When you consider that the sum of all the Deltas have to add up to the highest lotto digit, it's apparent that there isn't room for many large numbers. But the patterns I'm seeing still often seem out-of-the-ordinary. One possibility is that the balls in many lotto picking machines at times do not thoroughly mix. The excess of small delta numbers, and especially the predominance of ONE, mean that balls that went in the lotto machine next to each other are coming up together! It's not obvious in the lotto numbers themselves, but the delta calculation reveals the pattern.

To visualize this, imagine a lotto number machine where the balls all enter lined up in numerical order (like they do here in Michigan.) Now imagine that the numbers are picked without mixing the balls. What would happen? Well the picks would still be somewhat random, of course. But the balls nearest the exit ports of the machine would be the ones most likely to be picked. And All the balls near the exit port are consecutive numbers, since that's how they went into the machine. You might not know what numbers they are. But if you track Deltas, those number pairs would show up as ones. Now, this is an extreme example. But if the balls don't mix enough, you can see how some of these tendencies could remain.

Lending support to this theory are apparent trends (look at the raw data) in the frequency of number ONE in the deltas. The beginning of the chart shows lots of ones. Later on, they taper off, then start appearing more often again. This sort of behavior might occur with changes in the operation of the lotto machine. Perhaps some weeks the balls are allowed to mix longer than at other times, owing to TV schedules or other factors. An astute observer might pay attention to these trends and play lots of adjacent pairs when there are many delta ONEs coming up.

Excellent explanation!!

The only percentage in gambling is 50 percent. You either win or lose.

United States Member #116348 September 8, 2011 2084 Posts Offline

Posted: January 16, 2013, 4:49 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on January 16, 2013

"I studied the distribution of delta numbers in a year's worth of winning numbers from the New York, California and Michigan lotteries."

If you think for a while about the thousands of years that must transpire before all the possible combinations of most lotteries have been drawn, you will understand why I highlighted "a year's worth" above.

Thousand years!, I don't want wait that long for eventual combo to drop when dealing with a fluid/conditional concept like probability(more of inference concept based on choosen physical data, data deals with statistics, which can be extrapolated ). Probability is not a physical concept, and its definition is not absolute, but left to interpretation. The member CAJUN gave detailed explanation why the trend at a moment should be a subscale model(model should be dynamic, depending on TREND DATA).

State of Mind United States Member #93949 July 10, 2010 2117 Posts Offline

Posted: January 16, 2013, 6:23 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by adobea78 on January 16, 2013

Thousand years!, I don't want wait that long for eventual combo to drop when dealing with a fluid/conditional concept like probability(more of inference concept based on choosen physical data, data deals with statistics, which can be extrapolated ). Probability is not a physical concept, and its definition is not absolute, but left to interpretation. The member CAJUN gave detailed explanation why the trend at a moment should be a subscale model(model should be dynamic, depending on TREND DATA).

And just what do you suspect could cause a TREND in the DATA? I'm not persuaded by the idea that the configuration of the balls in the machine before the fans are turned on can have any measurable effect on the results.

United States Member #116348 September 8, 2011 2084 Posts Offline

Posted: January 16, 2013, 6:59 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on January 16, 2013

And just what do you suspect could cause a TREND in the DATA? I'm not persuaded by the idea that the configuration of the balls in the machine before the fans are turned on can have any measurable effect on the results.

The cause generating a Momentary trend could be many factors, but am not concerned. What am concerned is the transitional data(could last a certain time, remember my life span is short with regard to large matrix odds). Like I said, stats and probabilty may seem mutually inclusive , but two completely different concepts. Stats deals with data(physical and dynamic), probability is more of inference , base on a data(Physical and dynamic).Since probability is a conditonal concept, i have the pleasure of elasticity with my data trend.

See ,I play the pick 3 mostly with pool size 0-7, but sometimes 0-6 ,depending on the draw digits range(Trend), and make decent sum every month. The clue is when you downsize your pool, your betting strategy has to change.