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Mega Millions Just The JackpotReply
To your point about variance, yes, JTJ is obviously going to be higher than a regular ticket. Both are going to be a huge variance, regardless. So, if variance is the concern, don't play the games to begin with. You will get a few bucks back by playing a regular ticket and hitting the minor prizes, but as percentage of $ spent, it's still very low. The return is basically predicated on hitting the jackpot, which the average person more than likely would not hit in a thousand lifetimes. Ther
Jul 17, 2023, 8:17 pm - Orange71 - Mathematics Forum

Mega Millions Just The JackpotReply
Ponder that the winning numbers for PB and MM are selected by mechanical lotto machines, not PRNGs. The PRNG algorithms only select Quick Picks. Any slight bias in the algorithm is going to have such a very minor effect on the Binomial assumption it won't practically matter. The players with unique combinations selected on play slips will have a more significant effect on deviation from the Binomial Distribution. There was one Jackpot winner in last night's $1 Billion Power Ball drawing. Per
Jul 20, 2023, 8:18 pm - Orange71 - Mathematics Forum

Mega Millions Just The Jackpot
In my state the lottery commission offers an alternative to the regular $2 Mega Millions ticket. It's called Just The Jackpot . (I'll call it JTJ for short.) You get two tickets for $3, but you can only win the jackpot. Lower tier prizes are eliminated. Two interesting questions arise: (1) At what Expected Value of the Jackpot does the JTJ offer a better expected value of return per unit bet compared to a $2 regular ticket, and (2) At what Expected Values of the Jackpot do a regular $2 ticket an
Jul 16, 2023, 12:06 pm - Orange71 - Mathematics Forum

"Post-Game Review" - $1.58B MM Jackpot This Week
A single winner in Florida hit the $1.58B Mega Millions this week. The cash value (I saw on TV anyway) was about $783M. This begs the question: playing a regular $2 ticket, did a player have a positive return expectation (expected value of return $2 bet)? Answers: 1. Before income tax - yes, roughly $0.11 gain per $ bet (about +11% return) 2. After income tax - no, roughly $0.28 loss per $ bet if you assume a 35% tax rate on winnings. (about -28% return) First, I looked up the nu
Aug 12, 2023, 12:53 pm - Orange71 - Mathematics Forum