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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 2 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
5601 Posts
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Posted: December 18, 2012, 11:55 pm - IP Logged

But first of all I still don't know what mean you are referring to.  You keep saying the mean, but not specifiying the mean what.  Like "the mean sum," "the mean number of 5/5 wins", etc.

 

And while everything you said is possible, that doesn't make them probable, nor does it mean that you can average better than the odds dictate.  You, of course, can win, but cannot consistently win in the long term.  So that means the average will not be better than the odds state.

"nor does it mean that you can average better than the odds dictate."

I'll try to keep it simple. A group of 28 numbers creates 98,280 possible combos and there are 3,819,816 possible outcomes. That's 2.57% or odds of 39 to 1. You don't need 5 consecutive five number matches to beat the 39 to 1 odds; 2 out of 39 drawings is enough. During the test, Ronnie was the only one who consistently changed his 28 number groups and had the best results.

"You, of course, can win, but cannot consistently win in the long term."

Not by playing all 98,280 combos in every drawing even if is logistically possible. Using a more realistic 5000 combos a drawing, Ronnie had a five number match and correctly picked the bonus number. And because he only used 1 bonus number, every line paid off.

"So that means the average will not be better than the odds state."

You're still missing the point because even if whatever group of 28 numbers matched the probable 1 in 39 drawings one time, in that drawing the odds were reduced from 3,819,816 to 1 to 98,280 to 1. If reducing the odds by 97.43% isn't getting better odds, what is?

    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing

    United States
    Member #59354
    March 13, 2008
    2334 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: December 19, 2012, 8:17 am - IP Logged

        This seems like such a waste but at the same time it's entertaining.  When I first choose to take on the lottery

    one of the first things that I found was the more math I used in my selections the worse I fared.  Random is in my

    opinion the opposite of math.  While math has it's place it is not going to help predict random. 

     

        Probability defines the probable, nothing more nothing less.  Playing Quick Picks is using one random event to try

    and match another random event.  If a player of self picks can pick up on any trend that seems to follow some sort

    of logic then they gain advantage over a QP provided the trend continues.   Is the trend just a chance event or is it

    a product of some unknown which might be defined given someone was willing to investigate?

     

        The argument here has gone more full circles than the merry go round at Coney island.   I guess it is more a question

    of what one believes than anything.  Most know the odds and if not the game websites provide this information.   Can\do

    some people fare better than others?   The thing is that even if one does the factors responsible are still questionable.

    Was it a chance event or was the players analysis somehow influential?   

     

        I guess it's up to the individual to make up their own mind,  I have yet to see the argument spring up out of thin air and

    most if not all are started by the people who favor QP's.  With all things being equal the simplest explanation is normally

    the correct one.   What we should ask is some simple questions,  I think the whole thing boils down to that some don't

    want others using a few tools and their head which might give them an advantage.   This is nothing new as we see it all

    the time.   If a person is successful then there are plenty of unsuccessful that want to tear them down.   If a person is 

    unsuccessful then they will be forced to change course at some point.  Some want to force their views on others and while

    they may have a few good views the rest suck.   No thank you please, I don't need or want what you have.

     

    RL

    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

    they are not.  Most great discoveries come while searching for something else

    US Flag


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      Member #116272
      September 7, 2011
      20244 Posts
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      Posted: December 19, 2012, 9:47 am - IP Logged

      "nor does it mean that you can average better than the odds dictate."

      I'll try to keep it simple. A group of 28 numbers creates 98,280 possible combos and there are 3,819,816 possible outcomes. That's 2.57% or odds of 39 to 1. You don't need 5 consecutive five number matches to beat the 39 to 1 odds; 2 out of 39 drawings is enough. During the test, Ronnie was the only one who consistently changed his 28 number groups and had the best results.

      "You, of course, can win, but cannot consistently win in the long term."

      Not by playing all 98,280 combos in every drawing even if is logistically possible. Using a more realistic 5000 combos a drawing, Ronnie had a five number match and correctly picked the bonus number. And because he only used 1 bonus number, every line paid off.

      "So that means the average will not be better than the odds state."

      You're still missing the point because even if whatever group of 28 numbers matched the probable 1 in 39 drawings one time, in that drawing the odds were reduced from 3,819,816 to 1 to 98,280 to 1. If reducing the odds by 97.43% isn't getting better odds, what is?

      You're still missing the point because even if whatever group of 28 numbers matched the probable 1 in 39 drawings one time, in that drawing the odds were reduced from 3,819,816 to 1 to 98,280 to 1. If reducing the odds by 97.43% isn't getting better odds, what is?

      Stack always gets right to the clear simple truth of what we are doing on this thread..............

      You don't need 5 consecutive five number matches to beat the 39 to 1 odds; 2 out of 39 drawings is enough.

      Exactly right, the second time 5 of 5 is matched the odds have been improved upon for all 39 draws.......


        United States
        Member #116272
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        Posted: December 19, 2012, 9:50 am - IP Logged

        Im not quite sure why Boney and others turn a blind eye to simple logic and reason............

        As I said before I'm not trying to prove a cosmic truth or do this for 1000 years strait without fail.......

        Im just trying to get BETTER ODDS in the short term to help my chances of winning...........


          United States
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          Posted: December 19, 2012, 9:55 am - IP Logged

          Set of 18 for MM. Tue. Dec. 18, 2012.

          03 07 11 19 22 24 28 31 32 33 39 41 43 44 51 52 54 56

          bonus ball 10

          1 of 5 on this draw........

          Tuesday, December 18, 2012                01 · 06 · 07 · 18 · 29    16          3$12 Million


            United States
            Member #116272
            September 7, 2011
            20244 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: December 19, 2012, 9:57 am - IP Logged

            Boney gets 2 of 5 on this draw.......

            1, 4, 8, 12, 14, 15, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 30, 31, 35, 38, 39, 40, 41, 43, 46, 53, 54, 56  Not sure if you wanted me to use a bonus ball.  RNG says 45.

             

            Tuesday, December 18, 2012         01 · 06 · 07 · 18 · 29    16        3$12 Million


              United States
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              Offline
              Posted: December 19, 2012, 10:26 am - IP Logged

              Excellent call on the 6 ball LottoBoner We could have keyed the 6-7 with the field and hit 5 of 5. lol.lol.


                United States
                Member #124498
                March 14, 2012
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                Offline
                Posted: December 19, 2012, 12:06 pm - IP Logged

                Excellent call on the 6 ball LottoBoner We could have keyed the 6-7 with the field and hit 5 of 5. lol.lol.

                Thumbs UpI,ve noticed when I get a real strong feeling in the patterns in my games pick 5, those numbers tend to hit in the Mega and in my pick six.  Kind of weird,


                  United States
                  Member #124498
                  March 14, 2012
                  7024 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: December 19, 2012, 12:11 pm - IP Logged

                  Im not quite sure why Boney and others turn a blind eye to simple logic and reason............

                  As I said before I'm not trying to prove a cosmic truth or do this for 1000 years strait without fail.......

                  Im just trying to get BETTER ODDS in the short term to help my chances of winning...........

                  Boney likes to disprove logic with other logic.

                  Boney touts the standard deviation, but he cant even figure out the mean.Roll Eyes

                  Boney doesn't realize that the standard deviation can change from year to year.

                  Boney also doesn't realize that at some point, logic must allow intution to take over.

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                    Kentucky
                    United States
                    Member #32652
                    February 14, 2006
                    5601 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: December 19, 2012, 12:18 pm - IP Logged

                        This seems like such a waste but at the same time it's entertaining.  When I first choose to take on the lottery

                    one of the first things that I found was the more math I used in my selections the worse I fared.  Random is in my

                    opinion the opposite of math.  While math has it's place it is not going to help predict random. 

                     

                        Probability defines the probable, nothing more nothing less.  Playing Quick Picks is using one random event to try

                    and match another random event.  If a player of self picks can pick up on any trend that seems to follow some sort

                    of logic then they gain advantage over a QP provided the trend continues.   Is the trend just a chance event or is it

                    a product of some unknown which might be defined given someone was willing to investigate?

                     

                        The argument here has gone more full circles than the merry go round at Coney island.   I guess it is more a question

                    of what one believes than anything.  Most know the odds and if not the game websites provide this information.   Can\do

                    some people fare better than others?   The thing is that even if one does the factors responsible are still questionable.

                    Was it a chance event or was the players analysis somehow influential?   

                     

                        I guess it's up to the individual to make up their own mind,  I have yet to see the argument spring up out of thin air and

                    most if not all are started by the people who favor QP's.  With all things being equal the simplest explanation is normally

                    the correct one.   What we should ask is some simple questions,  I think the whole thing boils down to that some don't

                    want others using a few tools and their head which might give them an advantage.   This is nothing new as we see it all

                    the time.   If a person is successful then there are plenty of unsuccessful that want to tear them down.   If a person is 

                    unsuccessful then they will be forced to change course at some point.  Some want to force their views on others and while

                    they may have a few good views the rest suck.   No thank you please, I don't need or want what you have.

                     

                    RL

                    "Probability defines the probable, nothing more nothing less."

                    We could calculate the probability of the number of times each MM number should be drawn over the next 700 drawings and see it's around 59 to 65 times, but when looking at the last 700 drawings we'll see only 30% of the numbers matched that probability.

                    If players understood probability, the question of the day would not be "will the $50 million PB jackpot roll?". This is an good example of when calculating the probability does apply. With ticket sales less than 15 million, there is a 92% chance the jackpot will roll. Jackpots have been won with less sales so probability is nothing more than an educated guess.

                    "Playing Quick Picks is using one random event to try and match another random event."

                    It's because of the slick advertising the lotteries have used for years. When people see a $200 jackpot they assume it's like a raffle where all the tickets are sold and somebody must win. And they know the odds against winning are "only" 175 million to 1.

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
                      United States
                      Member #9
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                      Posted: December 19, 2012, 12:27 pm - IP Logged

                      "Not playing combinations that could be birthdays because you might have to share a jackpot if you win" was something I first read on Gail Howard's website and have seen repeated many times since.  Apparently many of the lottery experts on this site are just repeating something they read rather than something they know.

                      Last night's MegaMillions winning numbers 12/18/12 - 01 06 07 18 29  +16  was a good example of that  theory while sounding logic not being based on facts.  This all birthday numbers combination produced nine second place winners but no jackpot winner.  How many times has such combinations had no winners let alone multi-winners?

                      * you don't need more tickets, just the right ticket * 
                      * your best chance at winning a lottery jackpot is to buy a ticket * 
                           Wink 


                        United States
                        Member #124498
                        March 14, 2012
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                        Offline
                        Posted: December 19, 2012, 12:49 pm - IP Logged

                        Last night's MegaMillions winning numbers 12/18/12 - 01 06 07 18 29  +16  was a good example of that  theory while sounding logic not being based on facts.  This all birthday numbers combination produced nine second place winners but no jackpot winner.  How many times has such combinations had no winners let alone multi-winners?

                        I see your point RJ.  Using the 1 2 3 4 5 6 scenario as well, there are times when you could easily score 3 to 4 number correct.  It is not something that should be necessarily frowned upon.

                        When the numbers 1 2 3 4 6 came up in New Yorks sweet million many people were $500 dollars richer, and I was not one of them

                        I did on that particualr draw play 1 2 5, and it didn't occur to me to do a consecutive formation.

                        Maybe it was because of the unconscious stigma of that combo?   I dont know, but I have played strings of numbers such as 30 31 32 33, and have won money.

                        P.S.

                        I think a second place win might be considered a jackpot at a payout of $250,000


                          United States
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                          Posted: December 19, 2012, 12:57 pm - IP Logged

                          But first of all I still don't know what mean you are referring to.  You keep saying the mean, but not specifiying the mean what.  Like "the mean sum," "the mean number of 5/5 wins", etc.

                           

                          And while everything you said is possible, that doesn't make them probable, nor does it mean that you can average better than the odds dictate.  You, of course, can win, but cannot consistently win in the long term.  So that means the average will not be better than the odds state.

                          The mean is what you make it BoneyDroney.

                          It could be the mean of flag formation numbers,

                          It could mean the mean of L-factor formations,

                          It could be the mean of 1day skip numbers,

                          It could be the mean of 2 day skip numbers,

                          It could be the mean of Decades,

                          It could be the mean of Adjacent numbers,

                          It could be the mean of Leapfrog numbers,'

                          It could be the mean of annoying posts by boney.

                          If i said boney has a mean of 2 posts per day, and boney has not posted in two days, then the standard deviation would lead me to believe boney is about to post something annoying 4 more times.

                          Since boney does not have a dictionary, lets all help him out with a definition.

                          Main Entry:arithmetic mean Function:noun Date:1767

                           : a value that is computed by dividing the sum of a set of terms by the number of terms

                          a.k.a.

                          the average

                          And while everything you said is possible, that doesn't make them probable, nor does it mean that you can average better than the odds dictate.  You, of course, can win, but cannot consistently win in the long term.  So that means the average will not be better than the odds state.

                           

                          Now since boney has 2 averge posts per day, and yesterday he posted 4 times, he was able  to do better than the odds dictate, and hopefully to keep in line with standard deviation he will go back into his stupor where by according to the standard deviation, we wont have to hear him ramble on for at least four days, whereby he will awake from his stupor and come back with some more enlightening arguments, on average, two of them.


                            United States
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                            Posted: December 19, 2012, 1:06 pm - IP Logged

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                              Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
                              New Jersey
                              United States
                              Member #99034
                              October 18, 2010
                              1439 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: December 19, 2012, 1:10 pm - IP Logged

                              If you don't know the "mean" you can't find standard deviation so it too is irrelevant. You're either looking for frequency distribution or probability density function and with either you must know the mean.

                              I know what A mean is, but I don't know what THE mean is of what you are referring to.

                               

                              Like I don't know if you mean the mean # of tickets per game, the mean number of draws for a some undetermined set of 28 numbers to last, etc.

                               

                              Obviously I know what a mean is, I don't know what mean you are talking about.

                                 
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