Sedertree's Blog

Well, this week my new algorithms are off to a fantastic start.  One of them surprised me today in Georgia by including a biased digit in my predictions after so many occurances, where normally it would be excluded.

The Prediction Wizard is a fine piece of work.  Unfortunately I can't share it with the world, because then the world would be me.  Then who would I be....  It would be different if it was just a tool with a myriad of possible ways to interpret the data and post/play a prediction.  We can't have everyone, who would be using my system, posting the same set of numbers every day.

Someday, I will retire from all of this and pass the torch to my step-daughter Alexandrea.  It's funny, she is calling herself Ms. Bayesoft these days.  Eight more years and she will be able to participate here at Lotterypost.

Heyyyy, I have great news for everyone using Mikes "Crunch"....  I approached him the other day and gave him authorization to add my Spike/Trough Filter to his project.  He should be adding it for the next release.  If any other developers are interested in including this filter in your software just let me know either here at Lotterypost by message or at my email address.

That's all for now,

...../George

Tried a blanket prediction today on Tony's suggestion to use multiple states recent winning numbers.  I chose ten states and input their recent winning number into the LP Prediction Wizard an viola.... Nothing....  Ouch, I shoulda stayed in bed LOL.  It's ok Tony I'm not blaming you, I had to try it at least once.  It seemed like a good time since not all states have a sunday draw.  I think I'll stick to my state specific predictions from now on.

Sometime this week I'll try parsing out the drawfile from a textbox instead of adding it by hand.  I added an "Undo Last" button today but haven't coded it yet.  If I make a data entry error right now I have to hit the master reset button and re-enter the whole drawfile.  Time consuming if I make a mistake.

Here's hoping the algorithms work this week....

I Tweaked its A**

Spent the morning tweaking the code on my Lotterypost Prediction Wizard.  Finally negotiated the redundancy bug that kept popping up every once and again.  Which was a logic error BTW.  Did some manual back-testing to find out where the majority of hits were coming from... It was no surprise that they came from my own SST-STS-TSS Matrix Permutation Set.  So I hard-coded the internal filter for two of the three Spike/Trough Filters and still ended up with an eight number set of Pick-3 Numbers to post.  So if anyone plays my numbers boxed, you'll be happy to see that you only have to play four assorted numbers now.

Kicking myself in the arse for breaking my own cardinal rule this week on the correct usage of drawfile histories.  Didn't realize my mistake until Friday and finally hit on two of the states in which I had been doing poorly.  ie; Mid/Eve for Mid/Eve and Mid4Mid/Eve4Eve.....  Oh well, it's not too late.

Will post a few more states today for the evening draw before I leave.

Well,

     Two days is not a good indicator of the success or failure of a system by any means.  Especially when the prediction limit is ten numbers and I'm only posting eight.  But today I hit California in a big way so I'm optimistic that the rest of the week will prove lucrative for other states as well.  If I don't by this weekend, I can go back and tweak the Prediction Wizard to where all the hits are coming from.

     It would be cool if Todd could add a parse for the following prediction normat:  

XXX-XXX-XXX-XXX-XXX-XXX-XXX-XXX

I can't seem to write a carriage return into a textbox after each number in VB.  Which means I have to manually hit return after each number and remove the separator (-).  Just a little extra work to do on my part but the rest of the process is smooth.  This is way coolness.

Now that Todd has finished the prediction stats I feel an obligation to once again dust off the predicating toolbox.  I had at one time a VB App that I used to automate the prediction process of my new Triple-8 workout.  It produces eight of each Assorted, Doubles and Triples based on the particular states drawfile.

But, my computer crashed awhile back and I lost it.  The darn sasser worm shut my computer down as I was saving a file.

Sooooo, for the past 12 hours I have been hard at work creating a replacement Prediction Wizard that will, in theory, produce a profit.  There is a small redundancy bug that defies logic since it comes and goes.  Maybe it's just operator error.  All I need to do now is put the lists in a textbox and I'll be able to copy and paste the output here at lotterypost.  I'm not going to tackle it tonight.  It is after 3am and I need my ugly winks.

Reading one of Tony's posts, I may post an all states prediction sometime this week.

Here we are a week after work began on my homestead in beautiful Northern Michigan.

I have spent the last three days out at my property with my chainsaw.  Cutting firewood from brush piles and taking out the dead and dying trees.  My muscles are sore but I think they are getting used to the hard work now.

http://www.bayesoft.com/homestead1A.html

Enjoy,

...../George

Well, the loggers didn't show up until Wednesday because of the rain on Tuesday.  I took them out to the property and they were impressed with my little "forest in the hills".

The owner didn't come out to the property at that time, but he did stop in later that afternoon.  The deal is pretty straight-forward.  We take a 50/50 split from the mill at $150 per tree/log....  He estimated that we would get at least $8000 for the lumber.  Maple is a good hardwood anyway and we have been hit with the emerald ash borer in Michigan.  So the price of Ash has went up.

I went out to see their work this afternoon and they had already left for the day.  The logs were perfect, not a rotten heartwood in sight.  It was strange to see daylight striking the ground, and patches of sky through the canopy.  Not to mention the nice new driveway they graded for me through the woods.

I felt a bit of sadness as I looked at trees older than myself, some two feet in diameter, laying in piles  ready to become a part of someones home or furniture.  All around me I could smell the earth.  Kinda like earthworms, you fisherman can relate.  You know that smell when you pop the top of a bait bucket.  The wounds left on the ground from the CAT were apparent.  Nothing that a shovel and rake can't fix.

It had to be done though, so I'm not going to lose too much sleep over it.  My house has to be built.  Did I hear "Tree-Killer!!" from the back row?

...../George

You are now reading the Blog of a very, very happy man.  With one simple word, "Done", yours truly and Bayesoft Technologies has been inducted into a roster of Bayesian Thinkers from around the world.

I am now affiliated with like-minded scholars from around the world.  Most of them Ivy League.  This honor is sure to open doors for me in the future as a respected researcher in this field of study.

Well.... back to work.

Tonight I spent almost four hours combing the Internet for content and research links that will be added to the Bayesoft Technologies Website.

I stumbled upon a link to a prestigious order of like-minded colleagues in Statistical Analysis that are affiliated with an Ivy League University.

I sent an email to the chairman tonight asking to be included among the nations top thinkers in Bayesian Inference.  It's too soon to celebrate of course but it would be nice to receive validation and win acceptance from the academic community for my contributions to statistics thus far.

This morning I will be taking the loggers to my property so I'd better get some sleep.

Today has been part two of my 22 day vacation from the shop.

I was happy to hear tonight that a friend at lotterypost was having success with my sum pair theory.  Another piece of the proverbial puzzle slides into place with experimental data to back it up.  Makes me feel good.

Terri and I played five easy picks for the Mega Millions last night.  Hit two out of five numbers in one set, so that means about squat.

My step-daughter is back home with her grandmother for now.  We should have her back with us next month for the new school year.

Finally finished tarring the roof this afternoon when it started to cool-off outside.  My long handled roller came apart so the rest was completed on bended knee.

I've been asked how the plans for my underground house are coming along.  I'm happy to report that upon careful survey of my property.  I own what could be best described as a heavily-wooded volcanic or meteorite crater up in the hills.  Luckily one side of the crater is washed out towards the valley at a 45degree angle to the SSW.

On Tuesday a logging company will be following me out to the property.  They need to assess the terrain before making me an offer for the lumber.  They are using a CAT to pull logs, so I've stipulated that the bottom of the crater be leveled out with a blade and the exit route be graded down the slope when they are finished.  The cash I make on the lumber will be used to set the well and pour the wall footings.

I dug a pilot hole a couple of weekends ago in the crater to determine composition.  I was happy to discover that under 8 inches of leaf-litter and loam was the typical sand for our area.  I was worried because the valley below me is solid clay.  I was told that it is about 24' thick in some areas.  So with this there is no need to worry about drainage.  I will still lay underground tiles because we get a lot of snow melt in the spring.

I will post some pictures on my website as work progresses.

Content... Content... Content...

Three new pages and the existing index page of bayesoft.com needs content added.  Not enough time to do it today.  I'm sure this roof will keep me busy until work.

Added Pages:

Game Theory - Glossary - Developers

Game Theory will contain normulas, innormation and links to separate pages.  With possible downloads of things like charts, number sets, drawfiles etc.

Glossary will contain relevent mathematical terminology with descriptions and possible links to outside resources.

Developers will be a resource for code snippets and tools for developers of lottery software.  I'll get the ball rolling with some stuff for VB Programmers.

Well.... Time to start on that roof.

Hmmmm.....

I Spent most of the day removing stubborn spy/ad ware from our computer after installing some "Freeware".  This new stuff is tenacious, even with Spybot S&D and Adaware.

My step-daughter is "up north" with us for a couple of weeks.  She wanted to make a walking stick/staff so we killed an hour there.  Terri and Alex went into town to do laundry while I finished up the staff for her.  She was happy to see it finished when she got back.  Alex and my neice, Emily, are spending the night with my mother tonight.

It is 3:20am right now.  I stay up late on my last night off to re-adjust my internal clock for work.  So to keep busy I worked on bayesoft.com with MS Frontpage and FTP'd what I finished with Leech.  Did a little P2P and am now ready to sleep while my downloads continue.

I have to "tar" the roof this afternoon before I leave for work.  Four days and then we shut-down for two weeks.  Such is the life of a shop-rat.