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aquariuslottery's Blog

  • aquariuslottery's Blog has 7 entries (0 private) and has been viewed 13,276 times.
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July 21, 2012, 12:59 amThe wizard of odds

In every numeric lottery its numbers are supposed to be drawn at certain frequency rate which is defined as odds for the number. Pick 3 is such a lottery which defines odds for each of its numbers. These are mathematical odds, a ratio that is equal for all numbers.

For Pick 3 lottery there are 3 numbers from 0 to 9 drawn independently to form a 3-digit winning number (e.g. 123). The odds for each of these single digit numbers are the same: 1 in 10.

Thus, if we consider 30 draw span in a lottery there are 90 single-digit numbers drawn in that time. If we apply mathematical odds to all the Pick 3 available numbers (10 of them) in 30 draws each number should be drawn 9 times. Compare this with the frequency chart for 30 draws in June 2012 in Kansas Pick 3 lottery:

0 - 14

1 - 10

2 - 4

3 - 8

4 - 10

5 - 8

6 - 13

7 - 4

8 - 7

9 - 12

Total is 90 as expected. But look at the distribution - not a single number was drawn at its mathematical odds. The difference between the highest and the lowest is 10, the highest was drawn over 3 times more than the lowest. What happened to the mathematical odds, why all the numbers aren't at 9 times frequency as they are supposed to be?

Because there is a feature called the CURRENT ODDS - the odds at which each individual number is drawn at current time. Current odds are independent from the mathematical odds and, while mathematical odds always remain the same, the current ones constantly fluctuate. By using appropriate statistics these odds can be identified and applied to selecting numbers for actual playing.

There is evidence that the current odds for each number do exist and they may sinificantly affect the results of playing. Here is the proof.

Kansas Pick 3 lottery, the month of June 2012, 30 draws. I picked this month without any bias or prejudice - it is the latest data I have available for the whole month at the time of writing (July 20/12).

I compared (backtracked) 2 selection methods for this period of time. I used box play for singles and selected in each case 8 numbers wheeled into 56 combinations. Doubles were ignored.

The methods selected for comparison were hot numbers (the most frequent) for the latest 30 draws and cold numbers (the least frequent), also for the latest 30 draws.

With each draw the frequency charts for hot and cold numbers were updated to make sure their hot or cold status was current.

Both methods always used 8 numbers out of available 10, so there was always a significant overlap. In fact, for hot numbers only 2 coldest would not make the list, and for the cold - only 2 hottest would not fit. 2 out of 10 does not seem to make a significant difference, does it? Well, look at the results.

30 plays in June:

Hot numbers won 16 times.

Cold numbers won 10 times.

For curiosity I also computed stats for overdue numbers (the ones that have been waiting the longest for being drawn) - they won only 8 times.

These results were computed automatically by backtracks. Once I set calculation parameters, the computations were done automatically and no adjustment could be made to affect the results.

The difference between hot and cold numbers is 6 wins. For box single play this means 6 times $80 = $480 diference in just one month. For me it's a fair chunk of money. In fact, this may make you earn or loose money in actual playing.

So, how come hots and colds did not score the same within the same time period, while always differing by only 2 numbers? Why such a difference in winning ratio? Because their CURRENT ODDS were not the same. The odds for the hots were always higher than for the colds and this showed in the final results. This proves that considering the current odds for all numbers must be an essential part of selecting numbers for actual playing.

As this analysis illustrates ignoring the current odds for Pick 3 lottery numbers is a prescription for a financial disaster and is most likely the reason why so many people win little or not at all in Pick 3. No matter how you play you always have to have the right numbers to win. And only the current odds will tell you which numbers are right. Mathematical odds should only be used as a reference and never applied to actual number selection.

Entry #7
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July 10, 2012, 2:48 amPick 3 simulation

The purpose of this simulation is to test Aquarius Pick 3 lottery system in a real-life like situation. It is a simulation because no real money is played or won.

The purpose of the simulation is to establish procedures that facilitate consistent winning in Pick 3 lottery, identify system's strengths and weaknesses, and introduce improvements, if possible, in its peformance.

I'm unable to test the system in real life because there is no Pick 3 lottery in British Columbia. Other Pick 3 lotteries are strictly territorial which means non-resident do not qualify fow winning.

For the simulation I picked Kansas Pick 3 lottery, for 2 reasons. First, it has only 1 draw a day which suits me better as I do not have time capacity to process and analyse stats and predictions more often than once a day. Second, it has standard set of rules and wins which facilitates setting up a playing strategy. But the system may be applied to any Pick 3 lottery, regardless of draw frequency.

As in any Pick 3 lottery the goal of playing is to actually make money. Not just wining, because it is easy to win if you discard the cost factor. However, making money on a consistent basis is a different ball game in which the cost of playing must strictly be monitored.

Conducted backtracks of the system indicated that this is possible. However, being fully automated, the backtracks lack one important element - the human decision regarding when, what and how much to play. This simulation is intended to test this element.

The daily analysis of predictions and results of the simulation includes:

- draw stats for the latest 15 draws: ratio of singles to doubles;

- odds evaluation: what to play (singles, doubles, both) and brief reason(s) for the choice;

- target win: box single or double, or both;

- prediction method used: there are 6 available;

- numbers selected for playing - 8 out of 10 (wheeled)

- cost of tickets played;

- actual numbers drawn;

- the result: win or loss;

- the winning combination in case of win;

- the amount of win;

- profit/loss calculation for the draw;

- total amount of profit or loss for the whole month;

The startup capital was set at $300, to initiate playing.

The system used in the simulation is based on the "7 principles for being succesfull in Pick 3 lottery" posted on my blog in LP. It's a computer software for Windows.

----------------------------------------- Jun 1/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 1/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 014

Result: won

Winning combination: 014

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$24

----------------------------------------- Jun 2/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 2/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, expect singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 492

Result: won

Winning combination: 249

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$48

----------------------------------------- Jun 3/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 3/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 112 x $1 = $112

Actual numbers drawn: 512

Result: won

Winning combination: 125

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$48

Total profit/loss: +$96

----------------------------------------- Jun 4/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 4/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 67%, doubles 33%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 112 x $1 = $112

Actual numbers drawn: 140

Result: won

Winning combination: 014

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$48

Total profit/loss: +$144

----------------------------------------- Jun 5/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 5/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: singles & doubles close to avg, play both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.5 + 56 x $0.5 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 456

Result: won (singles)

Winning combination: 456

Amount of win: $40

Profit/loss calculation: -$16

Total profit/loss: +$128

----------------------------------------- Jun 6/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 6/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: singles & doubles close to avg, play both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.5 + 56 x $0.5 = $56

 

Actual numbers drawn: 818

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$72

----------------------------------------- Jun 7 /12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 7/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 76%, doubles 33%

Odds evaluation: try for doubles streak

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 100

Result: won

Winning combination: 001

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$104

Total profit/loss: +$176

----------------------------------------- Jun 8/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 8/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, try both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - repetitive

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.5 + 56 x $0.5 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 146

Result: won (singles)

Winning combination: 146

Amount of win: $40

Profit/loss calculation: -$16

Total profit/loss: +$160

----------------------------------------- Jun 9/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 9/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - repetitive

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 968

Result: won

Winning combination: 689

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$184

----------------------------------------- Jun 10/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 10/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - repetitive

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 853

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$128

----------------------------------------- Jun 11/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 11/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - repetitive

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 075

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$72

----------------------------------------- Jun 12/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 12/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 67%, doubles 33%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box singles

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - repetitive

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 801

Result: won

Winning combination: 018

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$96

----------------------------------------- Jun 13/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 13/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 67%, doubles 33%

Odds evaluation: singles streak overextended, play both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - repetitive

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.50 + 56 x $0.50 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 995

Result: won (doubles)

Winning combination: 995

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$120

----------------------------------------- Jun 14/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 14/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 67%, doubles 33%

Odds evaluation: continue double streak

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - cold (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 663

Result: won

Winning combination: 663

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$104

Total profit/loss: +$224

----------------------------------------- Jun 15/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 15/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 67%, doubles 33%

Odds evaluation: continue double streak

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - cold (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 963

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$168

----------------------------------------- Jun 16/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 16/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 269

Result: won

Winning combination: 269

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$192

----------------------------------------- Jun 17/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 17/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 112 x $1 = $112

Actual numbers drawn: 306

Result: won

Winning combination: 036

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$48

Total profit/loss: +$240

----------------------------------------- Jun 18/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

 

Actual numbers drawn: 709

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$184

----------------------------------------- Jun 19/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 19/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 652

Result: won

Winning combination: 256

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$208

----------------------------------------- Jun 20/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 20/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 112 x $1 = $112

Actual numbers drawn: 064

Result: won

Winning combination: 046

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$48

Total profit/loss: +$256

----------------------------------------- Jun 21/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 21/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: singles streak overextended, play both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.5 + 56 x $0.5 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 109

Result: won (box single)

Winning combination: 019

Amount of win: $40

Profit/loss calculation: -$16

Total profit/loss: +$240

----------------------------------------- Jun 22/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 22/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: doubles underplayed

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 500

Result: won

Winning combination: 005

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$104

Total profit/loss: +$344

----------------------------------------- Jun 23/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 23/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: continue doubles streak

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 701

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$288

----------------------------------------- Jun 24/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 24/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: uncertan, play both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.5 + 56 x $0.5 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 346

Result: won (box single)

Winning combination: 346

Amount of win: $40

Profit/loss calculation: -$16

Total profit/loss: +$272

----------------------------------------- Jun 25/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 25/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 112 x $1 = $112

Actual numbers drawn: 453

Result: won

Winning combination: 345

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$48

Total profit/loss: +$320

----------------------------------------- Jun 26/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 26/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 946

Result: won

Winning combination: 469

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$344

----------------------------------------- Jun 27/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 27/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box singles

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 746

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$288

----------------------------------------- Jun 28/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 28/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: singles streak overextended, play both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - cold (30)

Numbers predicted: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.5 + 56 x $0.5 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 388

Result: won

Winning combination: 388

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$312

----------------------------------------- Jun 29/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 29/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: continue doubles streak

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - cold (30)

Numbers predicted: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 093

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$256

----------------------------------------- Jun 30/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 30/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 87%, doubles 13%

Odds evaluation: doubles underplayed

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - cold (30)

Numbers predicted: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 991

Result: won

Winning combination: 991

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$104

Total profit/loss: +$360

Summary:

The simulation was conducted for one whole month, in this case - June 2012 (30 days). The month was selected without any prior asumptions regarding actual numbers drawn and proportions of singles to doubles.

The analysis of odds was conducted after every draw and then a decision was made what and how to play.

At the beginning of the simulation I assumed that the best deciding factor for what to play was the current ratio between singles and doubles. It was a major miscalculation and was quickly abandoned. As it turned out, it was far more successful to follow streak patterns for both singles and doubles as streaks are common for both (although there were none longer than 2 win streaks for doubles in the entire month).

Additionally, it turned out that there may be periods of "instability" during which neither singles nor doubles form any lasting streaks. Such periods make winning much more difficult. I played through such periods, usually with mixed results. Another option is to stay put during such times and wait for clearly defined streaks.

The simulation proved beyond question that it is imperative to monitor several prediction methods at the same time. The backtracks were conducted after each actual draw and each of the 6 prediction methods monitored for efficiency. This resulted in actually using 3 different methods at different periods of the month: hot, repetitive and even cold as their efficiencies varied.

It should be noted that it is possible to use box single wheels for playing straight single. All numbers in wheels are arranged in ascending order and if the winning singles are also drawn from the smallest to the largest this will result in straight win, not box (e.g. winning numbers 047 will give the straight win and not the box) . Some Pick 3 lotteries allow split for box and straight on the same slip so it is possible to play box and straight at the same time. During the simulation I did not explore this possibility although it appears to be an opportunity for increased winning.

I took a rather conservative approach to playing. Only on few occasions I played more than $56 to increase chances of winning more money. Bolder players may risk more and win more as well. I avoided unnecessary risk-taking.

The system won 22 times in 30 days (73%). This is consistent with backtracks that indicated similar ratios. Not all wins resulted in a profit: several wins actually resulted in loosing money (the cost exceeded the winning). However I tried to limit loses by avoiding excessive risks in times of uncertainty.

The simulation proves that money can be made in Pick 3 lottery. The success depends on strategies adopted for playing.

The simulation identified that following streaks for singles and doubles is the most successful strategy. Observing singles to doubles ratio may also be important at times, particularly during significant deviations from standard percentages (72% for singles and 27% for doubles). During "instability" periods (no clearly defined streaks) it is probably the best strategy to stay put and skip a couple of draws.

Below are the Kansas Pick 3 numbers for the month of June 2012 used in the simulation. They are quoted here to demonstrate the presence of single and double streaks that, in my belief, are the key to success in any Pick 3 lottery. Indentations should improve visibility of the streaks.

The actual ratio between singles and doubles for the entire month was 77% to 23%, compared with standard of 72% to 27%. However, if the last 3 draws are discounted, the ratio for doubles is only 18.5%, significantly lower than std. Doubles are the money-makers in any Pick 3 lottery. Their lower than average presence makes generating profits much harder. I've seen months (in other lotteries) where doubles were at 40%. Such months may be financially very rewarding.

06/30/2012    991          double

06/29/2012    093    single

06/28/2012    388          double

06/27/2012    746    single

06/26/2012    946    single

06/25/2012    453    single

06/24/2012    346    single

06/23/2012    701    single

06/22/2012    500          double

06/21/2012    109    single

06/20/2012    064    single

06/19/2012    652    single

06/18/2012    709    single

06/17/2012    306    single

06/16/2012    269    single

06/15/2012    963    single

06/14/2012    663         double

06/13/2012    995         double

06/12/2012    801    single

06/11/2012    075    single

06/10/2012    853    single

06/09/2012    968    single

06/08/2012    146    single

06/07/2012    100         double

06/06/2012    818         double

06/05/2012    456    single

06/04/2012    140    single

06/03/2012    512    single

06/02/2012    492    single

06/01/2012    014    single

Aquarius

Entry #6
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May 6, 2012, 11:19 pmBeware of winning

The ultimate goal of playing Pick 3 lottery is winning.Winning as frequently as possible. Because winning means making money - at least that's what most people think.

Unfortunately, this is not a straightforward association. While it is always true that in order to make money in lottery you have to win frequently, the reverse is not - you may be winning all the time and still loose money. Because every time you play you have to consider the cost factor, the amount of money you need to spend to achieve a win. Amazingly, many people don'tsee things this way. They just want to win something, no matter what the cost.

Before you start playing any new number prediction method ask yourself a question - how much? Actually, 2 how muches: How much can I reasonably win with this method and How much is it going to cost me? If you don't have any info on this run a backtrack, if possible.Compare the results. Observe these stats for a while as they may fluctuate. This should giveyou a better idea if the prediction method can make you money in a longer term.

Entry #5
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April 9, 2012, 11:15 pmBreaking even in lottery

In jackpot lotteries you don't need to break even. You hunt for the bigger prey (the Big Jack) and losses are acceptable and actually, quite common. Even if you frequently win smaller prizes in the process you are not likely to break even. You just reduce your losses until you hit something bigger.

In non-jackpot lotteries it's a different ball game. There are no big wins to be expected, only small prizes at usually preset value. Therefore in such games it does not make sense to play for losses. You have to devise a strategy to play not only for breaking even but for actually making a profit, at least once in a while.

Pick 3 is such a non-jackpot game. Match 3 numbers out of 10 and you are a winner. Looks deceptively easy piece of cake - but the cake is hard to bite, as many found out, including your humble undersigned.

Aquarius

Entry #4
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April 9, 2012, 11:11 pmReasons for playing doubles in Pick 3 Lottery

It's very tempting to concentrate on singles as they constitute 72% of all combinations.

But I see this from the following angle:

The ods for winning a double are 10 X 10 = 1 in 100.

The same ods for a single are 10 X 10 X 10 = 1 in 1000.

Of all combinations possible in Pick 3:

720 are singles

270 are doubles

10 are triples.

The ratio of singles to doubles is roughly 2.7 to 1. Far from 10 to 1.

And on top of this doubles pay more than singles. Which means that

if you ONLY play box singles you will ALWAYS win LESS money than

if you ONLY play box doubles.

Looks straightforward and logical to me. Conclusion: if you want to

make money in Pick 3 - you`ve gotta play doubles. Period. And if you

can`t make money in Pick 3 what`s the point of playing it?

Aquarius

Entry #3
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April 8, 2012, 6:31 pmThe importance of backtracking

I used to play Pick 3 lottery for some time but generally with little success (doesn't it sound familiar to most folks?). At first I observed the numbers for a while and then picked a set of my personal favorites. I played them over and over again. But I seldom had any success with them - they did not want to come up, at least not in sequences I used for playing.

I also used to play Lotto 649 before and experience from it gave me some insights. Personally I prefer prediction methods based on statistics on current numbers drawn. I used them in Lotto 649 and applied them to Pick 3 as well. They are rather simple, easy to calculate (even manually, but preferably by computer which is much faster and less error-prone) and can be easily backtracked.

I selected the following methods for predicting numbers: hot, cold, repetitive, due to hit, overdue, and growing in popularity.

While I could see differences in efficiency between these prediction methods they all had one thing in common - they all fluctuated, sometimes they won and many times they didn't. Similar to what many people expressed on LP.

So I conducted backtracks on all my methods. The results were a big surprise to me. They showed me that the reasons why I was not winning lied not in the methods themselves but in the way I was using the predicted numbers. In other words, it matters much more HOW I use my numbers rather than WHAT my prediction method is.

Backtracks showed me clearly what I SHOULD NOT be doing when playing Pick 3.

1. Using one method only.

Backtracks confirmed without a doubt that all predictions methods fluctuate significantly in efficiency. Using one method exclusively put me outright in the "looser" category. I could not win consistently with one method only, at least not for any extended period of time. I had to monitor all of them for performance (which was expressed by the number of wins for the same, comparable, period of time).

One of the surprises was that, at one time, cold numbers outscored hot numbers by a significant margin, which sounded completely illogical, but it happened. Hot numbers were always (naturally) my personal favorite, so I learned a valuable lesson - no favorites. Play only what's winning now.

2. Trying to time the numbers precisely..

Many times I was playing a small selected group of "favorite" numbers (usually 3 or 4) arranging them in varieties of combinations that I was sure would win. They very rarely did. It is basically impossible to regularly predict with any degree of accuracy sets of 3 numbers - for example, the numbers 750 will be drawn today.

Backtracking clearly confirmed that: all methods tested yielded the same perfect score: zero.

3. Mixing goals.

In Pick 3 there are 5 win levels: straight singles, straight doubles, box singles and box doubles, and triples (I ignore the last one). To increase winning probability I was often playing for all of them, a mixed bag of combinations of my favorite numbers.

But it was like trying to hit 4 different birds, each flying in different direction with different speed and pattern - with one stone. It basically meant throwing the stone high in the air and hoping that one of the birds would accidentally collide with it. It happened on few occasions but rather seldom, with no consistency.

The backtracks clearly indicated that, in order to be more successful I have to target precisely what I want to win and aim at one target at a time. Either straight or box, and then either singles or doubles. No mixing combinations.

And the main reason for targeting was that I wanted to play more than 3 or 4 numbers at a time.

4. Playing insufficient numbers.

As it turned out playing insufficient numbers was one of the main reasons for my failures.

But if you want to play more than 3 numbers you have to wheel them. (For unfamiliar, wheeling means distributing numbers into combinations that cover all possibilities so no matter which of your selected numbers are drawn and in whatever sequence you win something).

Since I could not find any reliable information on Pick 3 wheeling anywhere I designed my own wheels. Actually, it was not that difficult. What turned out was that wheels are strictly type-of-play dependent. Which means they are different for straight and box plays, and within these - for singles and doubles. And that's a big reason for targeting, because these wheels are not exchangeable.

More numbers for playing requires bigger wheel to cover all combinations. So I experimented with different number of numbers for different plays.

Backtracks were pretty consistent. From 3 numbers to 6 (inclusive) the results were quite similar - usually zero, seldom more than that. Playing this way I would not spend much money but I would not win much (if anything) either.

When I started to wheel 7 numbers the methods began showing some signs of life. I would win something at least once in a while. Still, not as frequently as I wanted.

The fun began with 8-numbers wheeling. The wins became quite frequent and consistent. Although there were fluctuations between methods the consistency was there for all of them. Also, while wheeling 8 numbers does require quite a number of bets, if you win frequently you can still turn a profit, at least from time to time. Considering the cost-to-win ratio 8 numbers seem to be optimal.

The conclusion is simple. If I want to win in Pick 3 more consistently I have to wheel more than 3 numbers. There is no alternative.

5. Constantly targeting singles.

No question that box singles appear an easy target. Most of my plays were aimed at them. But, unfortunately, as the backtracks demonstrated, money is in doubles. Here is why I think so.

In order to correctly predict a double we need to predict only 2 numbers. Odds for that are 10 x 10 = 1 in 100. But to predict a winning single we need 3 numbers: 10 x 10 x 10 = 1 in 1000. No question which odds are better.

Moreover, doubles pay more money for a win, usually twice as much as singles. Financial benefit obvious.

Here is what my backtracks told me: when wheeling 8 numbers, singles would win only approximately between 30 -50% of draws. For doubles this ratio would be 70-90%. These ratios apply to all prediction methods - because odds are simply better for doubles.

6. Failing to monitor the draws.

It never occurred to me before to watch the actual draws for types (levels) of win. Surely, I was watching the numbers for patterns but why types of wins (singles or doubles)? It did not seem relevant. But it actually is - very relevant. Without watching this I cannot target effectively. It's like shooting with eyes closed.

72% of all possible winnings are singles, doubles constitute only 27%, roughly 3:1 ratio. Does not look good, does it? But these are only statistical averages. Actual percentages, particularly in a short period of time (2 weeks, for example) may be totally different. I have seen split 50-50 between singles and doubles in a period of 12 days, or 60-40 (for singles) in the whole month. That does not look that bad. In fact, these are the situations to take advantage of.

Win percentages have to be monitored all the time. This is very important for targeting doubles. Can I predict 100% when doubles start coming? Of course not. But if doubles, in a short time, (again, 2 weeks for example) are grossly underplayed (I've seen their percentage drop to 13%) it is fairly safe to assume that they will start coming back. And that's the time to play them - because of their much higher efficiency ratio and higher payout.

Moreover, not unusually, win types come in streaks: several singles or doubles one after the other. If there were no streaks for a long time chances are one may appear any time.

To sum up my observations:

The backtracks told me clearly that it is far more important HOW I play my numbers than WHAT these numbers are. Targeting, wheeling and draws monitoring, all combined, take precedence far ahead of any single prediction method, no matter how good such a method may appear. The "perfect" prediction method simply does not exist and it is a waste of time to look for one.

So the final lesson is: backtrack before playing. It's a must, not an option.

Aquarius

Entry #2
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April 8, 2012, 6:29 pm7 principles for being successful in Pick 3 lottery

These are my thoughts on how to become more successful in playing Pick 3 lotteries. Please take a look.

I would appreciate comments.

After analyzing Pick 3 lottery games I came to conclusion that there are 7

principles for improving chances in winning:

1. Identify short term trends.

2. Observe what's winning.

3, Analyze your numbers.

4. Target your wins.

5. Wheel for success.

6. Backtrack before you play.

7. Accept risks.

Below are more detailed comments for each of the principles.

1. Identify short term trends.

Pick 3 lottery is a game of chance. All its numbers, from 0 to 9, drawn at perfect

random, have an equal chance of being selected, regardless of what was drawn

before. Therefore, theoretically, all numbers should be drawn at similar frequency

- most of the time.

But when you look at weekly or monthly frequency stats almost always you

can see significant differences between these frequencies. Below is a table

of monthly (actually - first 30 days for each month) frequencies computed for

Ontario Pick 3 lotto:

Numbers          Oct 2011               Nov 2011              Dec 2011              Jan 2012

0                            8                          6                           11                         15

1                            9                          7                             9                           6

2                          10                          8                           15                           9

3                          11                          7                           13                         13

4                            9                        13                             6                           6

5                            7                        12                             8                           9

6                            6                        14                             6                         10

7                            6                          5                           10                           9

8                          11                          8                             7                           8

9                          13                        10                             5                           5

 

Variations are clearly visible. In fact, such variations are norm rather than exception for practically all Pick 3 lotteries. They constitute what I call SHORT TERM TRENDS.

The further back you look the less variation you can see - conflicting, opposite

trends tend to cancel each other out. In the long run, say 500 plus draws, frequencies may be very similar for all numbers.

Not only frequencies are subject to such short term trends, other statistics as well. The point is to identify such trends early enough and exploit them to one's advantage. With appropriate tools, I believe, this can be done.

What defines a "short term"? I believe up to 30 latest draws, definitely no more than 50.

Because of these constant frequency fluctuations I don't consider playing constant numbers a good strategy. Obviously they will come up at some time but in order to predict this with any degree of accuracy you need to know their current skipping patterns - how many draws, on average, they skip before being drawn again. And if you are using sets of numbers their current skipping patterns may be totally different and incompatible.

2. Observe what's winning.

In every Pick 3 lottery there are 3 levels (types) of wins - only single numbers (all 3

numbers unique), doubles (2 numbers the same) or triples (all 3 the same).

Statistically, there are 1000 unique combinations of 3 numbers out of 10. 720 of

these (72%) are singles, 270 (27%) are doubles and only 10 (1%) triples.

These are statistical averages. But when you look at draws at any given time

(again, in short term) you will see significant variations. Despite averages doubles

may be drawn several times in a row. The same may apply to singles. Not

unusually win types cluster into longer streaks. When it happens playing doubles

when singles are winning (or the other way around) is a pure waste of money.

Below are stats for Ontario Pick 3 lottery:

Month           Singles     Doubles      Triples

Oct 2011         64%          36%           0%

Nov 2011        60%          40%            0%

Dec 2011        74%           26%           0%

Jan 2012        71%           23%            6%

 

Like with number frequencies there may be significant variations in these

percentages. So, in order to be successful in Pick 3 lottery you have to observe

what is currently winning so you can adjust your strategy accordingly. It is

important because, before you play, you should explicitly target what you want

to win (refer to Principle 4 for more info on this).

Because triples are so statistically insignificant I ignore them in this analysis.

3. Analyze your numbers.

I believe that numbers should be analysed based only on logical statistics. Short

term frequencies are an example of such stats. But there may be many others. I

also analyze numbers that repeat themselves frequently at short intervals

(but excluding doubles) or numbers that show an increase in current popularity

(frequency) compared with the past.

Whatever other statistical method you use bear in mind that it should be helpful

in predicting future numbers. It should attempt to predict, based on some

statistical criteria, numbers that may more likely be drawn in the near future.

The criteria should be consistent to allow for comparison between different

prediction methods (eg. when comparing hot numbers versus cold ones both

should be computed for the same number of draws).

I believe that to some degree, such predictions are possible and at times may be

quite successful (for more info refer to Principle 6 - Backtrack you methods).

They may not win all the time but they should help in increasing your chances

of winning.

Keep your statistics as current as possible. Use only the latest numbers. Stats

that relate to distant past are not very relevant for the present time. And never

apply stats from other lotteries to your own. Their trends and patterns may be

completely different from yours.

4. Target your wins.

As Principle 2 (Observe what's winning) indicated there may be significant

fluctuations (in short term) in winners for singles and doubles. Not unusually

they come in clusters: several singles or doubles in a row. Below is an example

from Ontario Pick 3:

18 Nov 2011 543 singles

17 Nov 2011 468 singles

16 Nov 2011 384 singles

15 Nov 2011 299        double

14 Nov 2011 515        double

13 Nov 2011 772        double

12 Nov 2011 216 singles

11 Nov 2011 368 singles

10 Nov 2011 054 singles

9 Nov 2011 699          double

8 Nov 2011 474         double

7 Nov 2011 454         double

As you can see in this 12-day period singles and doubles are on par, far from

their average percentages (72 and 27 respectively). If you played only singles

for that period of time, no matter what prediction method you used, you would

not be very successful.

Therefore, every time you play you have to decide what you want to win: straight

or box, and within these - single or double. For each of these your strategies will

differ.

Once you decide what you want to win you can select numbers for playing and

apply an appropriate wheel (refer to Principle 5 - Wheel for success).

5. Wheel for success.

Once you've selected numbers for playing you need to arrange them into sets.

For straight play you have to do it even if you selected only 3 numbers; more

so if you want to use more than 3 numbers (which I strongly recommend).

This is where wheels come into action.

(For unfamiliar - wheels are methods of distributing numbers into sets that cover

all possible combinations for a win, so no matter which of your selected

numbers come up you will win something).

For example, if you play straight numbers (singles) where the sequence of

numbers matters, even for 3 numbers you have to use 6 bets to cover all

combinations. The more numbers you want to use the more bets you will need.

Generally, straight play for either singles or doubles requires more combinations

than box play.

For straight singles using 4 numbers you will need 24 combinations:

123 124 132 134 142 143 213 214 231 234

241 243 312 314 321 324 341 342 412 413

421 423 431 432

But for the same box play the number of combinations is only 4:

123 124 134 234

In both these wheels no matter which 3 out of your selected 4 numbers come up

you are guaranteed 1 straight single in the first wheel and one box single in the

second - provided that winning numbers are all singles.

Similar wheels exist for straight and box doubles.

Using wheels may be expensive but they significantly increase your chances of

winning.

6. Backtrack before playing.

I cannot imagine anybody playing a lottery like Pick 3 without ability to backtrack

what's winning currently. Backtracking must be an essential element of any playing

system for the following and simple reason:

No matter how good and successful your prediction system is it is NOT going to win all the time. Take it for the fact. It may keep winning for a while, then slow down or stall completely - or any combination of these.

If your system stops winning you have 3 courses of action:

- Keep playing your system (and usually loose money), or

- Stop playing altogether, wait for better times but monitor your system for signs of recovery, or

- Monitor other prediction systems and switch to one that still keeps winning.

This is where backtracking shows its valour.

Before you consider using any prediction method backtrack it first for at least 30

past and most recent draws. Compare its results with your favorite system. Try

several other methods and compare again. Select one that provides the best

results - now.

And even if you play your favorite method keep an eye on others - they may be

winning better than yours. In such a case consider switching.

7. Accept risks.

Many people have unrealistic expectations of winning in a lottery - all the time.

Unfortunately, this is not likely to happen.

There may be times when you will win frequently and there will be times when

you will loose just as often. The risk of loosing is always present and you have

to accept it as a factor if you want to achieve anything in Pick 3 lottery.

If you cannot accept this risk - DO NO PLAY the lottery. Spend your money for

some other, less stressful pastime.

Pick 3 lotteries appear deceptively easy to win but they are not. They are designed

in such a way that odds are always against you. You have to use appropriate

tools and strategies to beat these odds.

Playing Pick 3 resembles investing in stock - the more money you put into it the

more money you may win. Some strategies may require cash in amounts that

exceed one person's financial ability. If this is the case - POOL it! Create a pool

(syndicate) with your family, friends, co-workers or neighbors, or a combination

of any of these. Not only you create a greater financial resource for playing but

also spread the risk.

Finally, do not believe claims that someone invented a system that "cracks"

Pick 3 lottery. Always ask for supporting evidence (backtrack) before falling for

such a system. If you cannot verify the claim on your own do not waste your

time (and/or money) for it. Chances are high it's simply crap.

The best you can do realistically is to IMPROVE (to a degree) your chances of

winning - and even then you may not be successful all the time. But, then, after

all Pick 3 is a game of chance.

Aquarius

Entry #1
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