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prediction vs. guessing


PREDICTION: A statement foretelling the possible outcome(s) of an event, process, or experiment, based on observations, experience, and scientific reasoning.

GUESS: A statement foretelling the possible outcome(s) of an event, process, or experiment based on conjecture and intuition.

simple  enough

Entry #170


Comment by pacattack05 - July 27, 2007, 9:59 pm
They both sound plausible. The intuition part raised the value of the latter which was "Guess", making it eligible to be a running mate in the finals with "Prediction".

If "guess" was only just conjecture without intuition, it would have no credence. In my opiness anyway...lol
Comment by ochoop17 - July 28, 2007, 2:12 pm
Let me guess, Your prediction forth coming!!
hypersoniqComment by hypersoniq - July 28, 2007, 3:01 pm
not at all... just getting a handle on what's what
truecriticComment by truecritic - July 28, 2007, 6:36 pm
If you ran a RNG, for a number.....would that be a prediction or would it be a guess?
hypersoniqComment by hypersoniq - July 29, 2007, 12:17 pm
RNG would be a guess i think.
hypersoniqComment by hypersoniq - July 29, 2007, 12:29 pm
I'm trying to find a place for coincidental event counting, which is really all we have available...
odd/even, higher/lower, most/least frequent, coincidentally appears somewhere in some long chain of a constant number (like pi), followers...
observations that can be counted... theories that can be backtested...
that appears to be as far as we have come with this game of trying to beat the system.
coincidental systems cover everything... and I believe they fall somewhere in between prediction and guessing... not reliable enough to consistantly happen, and not totally unnoticeable.

what's next? perhapsaclean-sheet redesign of all of the coincidental systems... perhaps a more in-depth analysis of relevance (which is more important, even/odd or higher/lower? which one would you use if 2 coincidental events contradicted eachother... do you count the events and divide by the total number of draws to add "weight" to any one counter?)

It seems that it's never the "most"or the "least", but rather in between where all the action happens... but that's statistical mush, need a way to clarify things... be it pick3 or powerball/mega...

we need inspiration, some new thread of hope to chase, some new system that we can work on... and I am out of ideas. Gotta shake things up.

neural nets were not the answer... complex equations fell flat on their face when the drawings happened... wheeling is too cost prohibitive...
need something new.

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