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April 30, 2024, 12:41 pm
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Spreadsheet ideas for error identification.
Published:
After evaluating several formula ideas for capturing the difference of the drawn number and my pick, I ultimately decided to go with a vertical lookup table (VLOOKUP) that has 100 rows of every possible drawn digit and every possible prediction. This keeps the results signed (+/-) so I can then count each observed error with the countif and use max to find the most frequent signed error for the data in each position.
Got a busy work week, so I might not get to finish the sheet, or even update the draws until the weekend, which is the perfect tine to test the indexing function of my python back testing script to just process resent results by changing the offset variable.
So, since the systems are not profitable in raw form, looks like I will be waiting to start playing for awhile longer. But, by taking the time to think through each step, I am ending up with home brew tools and a work flow that can be used with any single pick system.
I had a feeling that the follower system was not profitable, I have no gut feeling on the result of error correction applied to it, but the trend will most likely be that it increases the number of hits, but not by enough to have been historically profitable.
When my old laptop bit the dust, I lost over a decade of excel files. Never again! Everything I am now working on is backed up to an internal storage drive AND an external drive.
The biggest problem I may be facing is that outside of followers, I am out of ideas...
Comments
Next up is designing an implementation of this most frequent mask, which will have to handle the edge "lottery math" cases of 9+1=0 and 0-1=9. Then I can run the test on the results right in the spreadsheet. I have to develop some statistics on the error distribution, but the initial look shows that the follower is a powerful predictor for one digit, it just seems the columns are out of "phase" with eachother, they don't hit at the same time... if PA came out with a pick 1 I would like my chances... but as it stands, progress is still being made!
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