Some thoughts on the new mirror spreadsheets

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The mirror system went from concept to playable picks in about a week, in contrast the follower system took months to get to the same place.

Of the PA P3 and P5 (mid and eve), only the P3 mid back tested to be profitable, as it would have hit $9k over 7,600+ draws @ $1 straight. By NOT searching for max past wins, over fitting was avoided.

The process follows basic machine learning operation...

1. The estimation function began as a simple mirroring of the last draw.

2. The error function captured the signed difference of pick vs. Result, which means zero was the most common error at each phase because the other numbers are split by being signed (+ or -)

3. The "gradient descent" part where calculus is employed to adjust the estimation function was replaced by cycling through all lookup possibilities that remained sequential and recording the resulting zero count, then adjusting the lookup tables to reflect the change. The result is the same, estimation function reached the global minimal error.

It is important to note that the best low error scenario is only slightly above 10% of the draws in each column, which was the expected ratio with a near uniform distribution.

In the end, I have a playable system with a few benefits over the old complex system...

1. Laptop not required to make picks. I took pictures of the column lookup tables and can calculate picks anywhere. No daily program to run, only periodic updates to the draw history files required.

2. Result is only 1 pick instead of 2, which cuts the cost of playing in half. Finally developed a one pick straight shot generator system! Starting this system at $4 per day played.

3. I cannot shoehorn jackpot game history into the program to generate a pick, forcing me to rethink that problem on it's own.

As a kicker, I saved $40 from my last lottery win so the first 10 tries are "on the house".

I have undoubtedly gained programming experience with the follower system, so those months were worth the effort, but I still think this basic simpler system represents my "best guess", adheres to my belief that these daily games are sequential games of one in ten (which is why it scales from pick 3 to pick 5 easily), and because it uses the result of the previous draw, it employs their own randomness in the pick selection process (just like the follower system).

This system seems like a keeper for simple operation, but I have 3 classes to go, the last two being machine learning and AI, so there will be MUCH more to come this year.

The goal remains the same, hunting that elusive pick 5 straight win as cheaply as possible.

Entry #258

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