The lure of the PA pick 5

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Here in PA, they started the pick 5 (aka Quinto) for both day and evening on the same date.

Same game, same rules, DIFFERENT pick mechanisms... day is computer based while the night still uses the ping pong ball mechanical method.

Pick 2 was done the same way, on the same day. The pick 3 and pick 4 have years of history on the evening games over the later introduction of the computer generated day game counterparts.

When looking at the particular case of unique digits...

Pick 2 has 90 of the possible digits with unique numbers, and since each unique combo has only 2 permutations, the set of possibilities can be set at 45. See how the house advantage works... if you play all 45 combos at $1 boxed, the cost is $45 with a 90% chance of winning $25.

Pick 3 has 720 unique combos, when considering the 6 permutations, this comes down to 120. Playing all 120 at 50 cents costs $60 for a 72% chance of winning $40.

Pick 4 has 5,040 unique digit combos, and when considering the 24 permutations reduces thus to 210 combos for roughly a 50% chance at winning $100 by spending $105 on 50 cent box tickets.

Finally, the pick 5 has 30,240 unique combos, permutations reduce this list to 252. Playing all of these would cost $252 boxed to return $425, however... unique digit draws only cover 30% of the outcomes... always a house advantage.

So, obviously this indicates that there is no sure fire way to get an angle on the game without eliminating combinations.

On the surface, there is no way to tell if the system is genuine or if they gravitate to paying out the low bets. On one hand they limit the sale of combos... it has happened many times where a pick 3 like 777 was "sold out". They will never publish the sales data.

We have the history, but the history of random numbers is not supposed to yield any actionable intel because it is random.

Every lottery system is based on assumptions, from the simple workouts to the big game wheels. So here is where the hypothesis starts... the system in PA could be set up to mostly pay out the low played numbers because it is run by humans and humans are greedy... If you remember the infamous 666 drawing where latex paint was injected into the balls, PA does not have a stellar track record of integrity.

So now we turn our eyes back to the history files, only using it to see winning draws as the result of this manipulation. Following the money instead of just the raw data... they DO publish the payouts for the daily games... this could be used to take a guess at the low played numbers. Look at the difference in a payout for a 777 vs just about any non triple... this is where I completely missed the boat by focusing on individual numbers vs combos.

So now I have developed sheets and scripts to specifically count hits for combos AND their permutations, which covers not only looking at straight hit trends but boxed as well.

Pick 5 day and pick 5 evening, though drawn by different methods, have similarities...

Each one has a 5 unique digit combo that was drawn 3 times straight... each one has several 5 unique digit numbers that were drawn 14 times boxed. NOT the same combos.

The betting system for this would be as straightforward as the pick 3... pick one combo and run it straight and boxed for a week... cost $28 (for both day and night). Instead of focusing on the top straight combo, playing the combo that has the most boxed hits for each game. The straight ticket will be decided by the overall frequencies of each digit in each position. Hoping to play that as soon as the data is put together. Sure it is twice as expensive as a pick 3 round, but a box hit pays out over 10x vs pick 3 box.

After this I will be sapped of any new ideas, so here js hoping that some good results emerge.

Entry #350

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