I agree with the basic rules if you are a beginning player. If you have been "investing" at the "oval wall street" for a while it may pay for you to look at First Time Starters that have "muscled up" via workouts where the average number of lengths worked per day, over a 30 day period is approximately 1. Example: A horse works once each week 4 weeks in a row and each work alternates between 5f and 6f ( the works span 30 calandar days). The average "furlongs per day" is 22/30 = 0.733... If everything else looks ok, i.e. pedigree, connections, race day demeanor, the horse may be bettable. Caught many a longshot FTS this way. This theory comes from Dick Mitchell, Cynthia publishing.

Big Hitter...that's very interesting. Something to check out. Thanks.