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Horse Racing - Overlays

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There are two ways to determine overlays.  One is the horse's closing odds and the other is using the morning line odds as a guide.

I use morning line odds and here's why.

Horse A.........fair odds 5/1........morning line 7/2...................closing odds 8/1

Horse B.........fair odds 5/1........morning line 8/1...................closing odds 8/1 

Horse A is a bigger overlay from his morning line but why is he such an overlay?   The morning line gauged his chances as 7/2 but the public didn't buy it for whatever reason.  That's a red flag.

Horse B's morning line was 8/1 so his talents are not as readily apparent to the morning odds maker.  The public doesn't see it either but they bet him enough to equal his morning line odds.

In summary, Horse A was an overlay because he wasn't being bet.  Horse B was an overlay because he wasn't being recognized.  The bet would be on Horse B.

The morning line odds are a good base-line indicator of how the public will bet.

Good racing! 

Entry #118

Comments

1.
truecriticComment by truecritic - September 14, 2007, 6:35 am
Rick
Sound advice.
How did you determine fair odds of 5:1?
2.
Rick GComment by Rick G - September 14, 2007, 7:45 am
Truecritic,

I use the Prime Power ratings from Brisnet.com and create an odds line from them using a morning line generator program. Then I adjust for track takeout and have to tweak it a little to be on the same playing ground as the morning line odds maker.
It is very helpful to transform a series of ratings into odds. The Prime Power ratings are very good to use for doing this.
3.
Rick GComment by Rick G - September 14, 2007, 8:22 am
True,

An added comment about the Prime Power ratings. This is their computer rating of each horse in the race based on all the usual handicapping angles...speed, pace, class, etc. It's been around for about ten years and their top pick wins about 30% of all races...that's why I use it because it seems to be an accurate barometer of the talent in the race and a good base for an odds line.
4.
truecriticComment by truecritic - September 15, 2007, 1:57 am
Sounds good, Rick

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