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Horse Racing - How to Beat the Takeout

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Note:  For anyone not familiar with takeout...it is the money the track skims off the top of the betting pools before you see the odds on the toteboard.  Usually it's around 17% and that's how they make their money.

Beating the Track Takeout

Tools needed:

A)  Morning line odds

B)  A good rating system (this could be any rating system you wish, such as speed ratings, etc., but the top-rated horse should win roughly 30% of the time to qualify it as good.)

C)  A morning line generator program (I found mine by doing a google search)


Using your ratings and morning line generator enter every horse's ratings and create your odds line, but DO NOT take into account track takeout or breakage.  I call this the "raw odds".  From these odds determine the fair payouts for each horse.  This is done by multiplying the odds times 2 and adding 2.  The program I use does this for you.

Now determine the payouts for each horse using the morning line odds...again, multiply the odds times 2 and add 2 to get the projected payout.

Compare the morning line payout to your "fair" payout.  Play the one whose morning line payout is the most profitable compared to the fair payout.

Here is an example.  I've only listed the top four rated horses for brevity.

#1..rating 126.9..raw payout $6.86....M-L payout $4.40

#7.............123.0....................$8.06......................$18.00

#2.............119.5...................$10.52......................$7.00

#2B...........116.2...................$13.64......................$7.00
.
.
.

As you can see the #7 has almost a $10 advantage in projected payout.  It is a great potential bet.

Considerations:

--You have to use a good rating system

--Don't consider horses whose raw odds are higher than 8/1

--Don't consider horses who don't rank in the top six of your scale

--Don't pay any attention to closing odds - place your bet and fuggetaboutit.

--Horses are bet to win unless they have morning line odds of 8/1 or higher (as in the example), then they are bet to Win and Place.

--Limit your analysis to "predictable" races...for example, maiden races are not as predictable as others.

This scenario plays out every day at every track and almost every race.  If you consistently bet this type of overlay then you have a similar advantage to a blackjack player who knows that the rest of the shoe contains mostly high cards.

If you can beat the track takeout then you are on your way to profit!

Good luck and good racing! 

Entry #120

Comments

1.
truecriticComment by truecritic - September 26, 2007, 3:24 pm
Just in case you are interested, a horseracing forum.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/

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