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Published odds and the permutation factor
Published:
On a simple game like the pick 3, odds are super easy to calculate... it is 10, representing each possible digit, multiplied by each other...
Such that 10x10x10 =1,000 possible combinations from 000 to 999
This holds for pick 4
10x10x10x10 = 10,000 possible combinations from 0000 to 9999
And pick 5 as well
10x10x10x10x10 = 100,000 possible combinations from 00000 to 99999
When we apply the same to the top prize on the powerball, things change a bit. In a replacement draw, any number can only be selected once in the first 5... so the raw odds calculation for the 5/69 + 1/26 looks like
69x68x67x66x65x26 = 35,064,160,560
That is over 35 Billion possible combos, but their odds are published as 1 in 292,201,338
Why?
Permutations!
Taking the raw odds calculated first, and dividing by the published odds gives you a whole number of 120.
Therefore we must consider that there are 120 ways to display a pick other than sorted order.
Let's look at another example... the cash 4 life (MUSL multi state game, called cash 4 life in PA)
We will look at the second prize (1,000 a week for life), paid out for matching 5/60)
Raw odds
60x59x58x57x56 = 655,381,440
Published odds = 1 in 7,282,016
Permutation factor (raw/published) is 90.
The odd part is that they do not always result in a whole number for a permutation factor.
Looking at the powerball second prize (pick 5 white balls from 69)
Raw odds
69x68x67x66x65 = 1,348,621,560
Published odds = 11,688,054
Which when dividing raw vs published gives
115.384610646
Which may mean there are more factors than permutation when calculating published odds...
I wonder why?

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