Sifting through the mountain of data to find the next step

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Today I have a bit of time to begin looking at the data collected from the full history rolling back tests.

One quick observation is how indexing only 7 draws, which keeps 143 of the same draws in the training set, can drastically change things like the standard deviation and the quartiles.

The first step will be to look at what is there in the PA Pick 3 Evening game data, looking for an idea of any connection at all between sets. Perhaps going to the previous 2 or 3 sets.  This step is concerned with choosing indicators that may get a pick based on the most recent data

The next step will involve isolating only the NNN draws to look for the frequency of percentages within those draws. This step is for gathering the profile of all NNN draws in a game history.

Hopefully the third step will be to put together a plan to make an actual guess.

Then the above will be tested on the remaining data sets (pick 3 mid and both pick 5 (quinto) games.

Even if it ends up that I run offsets at 21, 14, 7 and 0 it will still leave 129 draws in common across the range... but 7 draws can really reshape the statistics!

From the standpoint of the games, all PA mid day draws are done with a computer, while all evening PA draws are done with ball machines. The data is so far consistent between methods... it does not matter how they pick them, they tend to fill from the middle. By interpolation we can guess that the appearance of NNNN draws in the pick 4 would be in the mid 60% of all draws, and the pick 2 would be in the high 90% range... but the pick 2 and pick 4 are being excluded because the pick 2 has a weak payout and a minimum $1 bet and the pick 4 is more of a nuisance when it comes to claiming and taxation.

Also, even though the data is all combos, the analysis will still be done per column, so anything found in the pick 3 data can be immediately applied to the pick 5.

Also, with new systems, I tend to make the first play a bit heavier than normal. The plan is $7 a week for 50 cent straight bets, but the first run will be for $1 straight. And the plan remains the same for the pick 5... ONLY to be played on winnings from the pick 3... so that may never be live tested... Gotta keep it real.

Time to fire up the laptop, break out the reading glasses and see what can be discovered.

Entry #420

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