People often mix up probability and likelihood, but they’re not the same.

Probability is used to predict outcomes when the model is known—like lottery draws, dice, or cards—where results can be calculated precisely.

Likelihood works the other way around: after outcomes are observed, it’s used to judge which explanation or model best fits the data, often in complex real-world situations like elections.

Simply put:
Probability predicts outcomes; likelihood evaluates explanations.