How I see draw histories

Published:

I keep draw histories to use for developing systems. I do not view these as a model of the data produced by the mechanical or PRNG process (or in PA, BOTH). I view it as a collection of the results they paid on.

Every single state lottery runs test draws, some even publish the results. I place no value in this data because the state never intended to pay on those results. Power Ball used to publish test draw data.

Up until the end of last year, I excluded PA double draw data (where they picked an extra draw on some nights in the pick N games for a promotion) but I keep it in now because they paid on it. It was quite the project re doing every single history file I had with the new web scraper app. I made 2 versions. The first built the base file, with the header rows from day one of the game history to current. The second simply appends new data to those csv files. This replaced hours of manual copying into the files, particularly if I had not played a game for a long time (like pick 5) and needed to add years of data. Now, there are zero human transcription errors in the data sets, and updates happen with the click of a button... 2 minutes later 14 game histories are updated accurately!

I also maintain separate files for bonus balls like the mega ball and power ball.

Access to the history in or out of the app is a click away, this was the vision realized! 

So when processing this data, I am mostly looking for any micro biases in each column that hopefully points to the next number prediction that will pay out.

There are some that hold zero stock in the usefulness of past draw data, and they make compelling arguments, but I see it differently... there might be a connection, and even if it is coincidental at best, it is better than nothing.

This Markov Chain follower back test script may end up to be the single most complex function I will write, and even if there is no yield, I have honed some skill at trying to solve impossible problems with code, skills that will eventually transcend the lottery hobby.

Entry #595

Comments

Avatar Il2c -
#1
I feel ya. I made a tool to extract data via copy and paste, it filters out 2 digit characters and only processes 3 digit or 4 digit numericals  saving time.

Take the lp calendar for example. I used to copy and paste the midday draws deleting stuff line by line (u know how tedious this can be) then I'd save it as a text file, feed the data to a generator that detects digit trends. Then it would detect pairs, filter out certain digits and combos.

If I wanted to u can also filter out sums and dr.

Kinda cool huh? It's worked some time, but hasn't worked 💯 % of the time.

All of this started from a guy doing 317 rundowns last year.

I gave up on backtesting. I don't think any pattern holds unless there's another method that I haven't discovered yet.

Unlesssss..... I'm curious about your backtest script though.

What makes a script Markov today, probabilities or something else?
Is it certain lines of code?

I remember working with Marko V. It was a team of 3 and he just named it after himself.
Avatar hypersoniq -
#2
The concept of the Markov chain is to calculate the probability of moving from one state (current value) to all possible next values.
With a game like pick 3, there are 10 possible transitions... the digits 0 through 9.
Given the random nature, each should have exactly a 10% chance of being selected.
Avatar hypersoniq -
#3
So, considering the "current state" to be the last draw, the script goes back through the entire history and counts the number of times each digit "followed" the most recent digit and presents a distribution list of all 10 possible transitions, sorted by frequency descending.

The Markov Chain analogy holds because all 10 "next states" only need the "current state".

Of course, probability is not the same as certainty.
In the ideal situation, they would all have been drawn the same number of times, but the distribution shows any variance from expextancy.
Avatar hypersoniq -
#4
Oh, and this is strictly per column. For an example of 501, each digit would only contain it's own distribution. What followed 5 in column A, then what followed 0 in column B, and finally what followed a 1 in column C.
Avatar hypersoniq -
#5
I won't be looking for patterns in the backtest. I will be looking to count how many times a straight hit would have happened if I ran the same script every day against all but the first 1,500 draws of each history. That will be over 15,500 for the evening pick 3 in PA, which started in 1977
Avatar hypersoniq -
#6
And those first 1,500 draws are used to give the script something to count to get started... it gibes each digit a fair chance to have been followed by every other digit 15 times.

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