And the courage to believe.

I've been thinking a lot lately about Alonzo Wright, maybe the real name of the man who calls himself BigLoooser.  He evidently predicted the MM results for the third time last night, announcing his predictions before the draw to various members of the DB.

So what does this mean?  What does it say about Alonzo Wright?  What does it say about conventional wisdom?  What does it say about hard `knowledge'?  What does it say about the fundamental assumptions of scientists, statisticians, hard-nosed businessmen and politicians who promoted the governmental adoption of lotteries as a `voluntary tax on stupidity', as one politician described it when my own state was adopting Power Ball?

I'll begin with the last.  What Alonzo Wright, and the man I described in the Strange Experience thread under the Mystical forum have proven is that assumptions and matter-of-fact beliefs by people who `know' aren't necessarily any more solidly founded in truth than the bald declarations the guys sitting around in the barbershop used to make circa 1957, about how the Good Lord would destroy us, the same as He destroyed Babylon when they tried to build a tower to the sky.  Ain't going to be no artificial moons up there circling the earth.  Any fool knew better than that.

That was just prior to the Russkies sending Sputnik I into orbit.  

As for `knowledge', conventional wisdom, fundamental assumptions:

If you go back and read the posts in the Software Development thread under the Lottery Systems Forum, read how it was the days after Alonzo announced what he could do, but hadn't yet proven it, you'll see the 2005, version of the barbershop matter-of-fact pronouncements that he couldn't do it.  And any scientist, statistician, or hard-nosed businessman would have said the same thing.  That's `hard' knowledge for you.  Science.  Conventional wisdom, all wrapped up in a pretty package and tied with a bow.

For some reason, Alonzo had the courage to shrug off all that wisdom and knowledge.  He had the confidence that it could be done.  That he could do it.  And all the PHDs, book science and smartypants scoffers and naysayers on the DB weren't about to deter him.

Alonzo bought himself an adventure.  The tools he used were courage, self-belief and probably a lot of hard work.  We don't know much about Alonzo, but we know he's a man who's able to dream with the courage to go places most of us don't bother to go.

Alonzo had the confidence to disbelieve and the profound courage to admit it at the risk of appearing a fool in the eyes of lesser men.  A lot of those lesser men on this DB measured themselves during those days prior to Alonzo's demo, and forgot how tall they were immediately afterward.

Jack