This is an interesting article about one investor on Intrade who is betting McCain will win the election. His investments have affected the value of a McCain win to a 10 point discrepancy from similar markets and opinion polls including 538.com. The trading pattern of this investor has been investigated by Intrade because the bets are sizeable and unusual in their timing.
One has to wonder why this investor is betting so heavily against the grain. Bets are being made after a poor debate performance for example and sometimes in the middle of the night when trading is at its lowest.
Note that the bet on McCain specifically to win is not matched in the category of a Republican to win.
I wonder if this guy is a Diebold programmer?