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# Modeling The P3 Via Pair Frequency Part 2

Published:

Last Edited: August 27, 2009, 1:58 pm

Before we get started with Part 2 of this series, I have to point out an error in the description of the draw file, drawsP3.txt. This draw file should contain 200 past draws and not 120. Also, in the frequencyModel.txt file, which is output by mailBox100, the day that the winning draw occurred is calculated in error, and I plan to fix this in a future version. Otherwise, everything else is correct to the best of my knowledge.

MAKING SELECTIONS WITH MAILBOX100 USING THE FREQUENCY MODEL FILE

For our example, we'll take the last 200 draws of the CA Daily 3 starting from Aug. 21st and back. After running mailBox using 0 for the upper and lower bounds, we find that mailbox 000 contains 128 numbers between 000 and 999, such that the front, back side, and back pairs have no occurrences over the past 80 draws. As a side remark, mailbox 000 is probably the worst mailbox to play over a 20 day cycle, because it contains to many entries(usually the highest amout of all mailboxes), and, as is the usually case with other mailbox entries, only one winning draw occurs over the 20 day cycle. So how do we determine which mailbox to choose for play over the 20 day cycle. The answer by looking at the past 100 mailbox numbers that provided the winners over the last 5 cycles(100 days).

If you are following with the same set of test data, get the frequecyModel.txt data into a text editor, and select and all of the data, except the header data, to the clipboard. Paste the data into an Excel worksheet starting in column A. The mailbox digits should now start in column B and extend to column D. Select all of the frequency model data by clicking the mouse from cloumn A to column G, and then perform a sort on the mailbox digits (columnns B, C, D) in ascending order. Columns B, C and D should look like the following:

0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    0
0    0    1
0    0    1
0    0    1
0    0    1
0    0    1
0    0    1
0    0    1
0    0    2
0    0    2
0    0    2
0    0    3
0    1    0
0    1    0
0    1    0
0    1    0
0    1    0
0    1    0
0    1    0
0    1    0
0    1    0
0    1    0
0    1    0
0    1    1
0    1    1
0    1    1
0    1    1
0    1    1
0    1    2
0    1    2
0    1    3
0    2    0
0    2    0
0    2    0
0    2    0
0    2    1
0    3    0
1    0    0
1    0    0
1    0    0
1    0    0
1    0    0
1    0    1
1    0    1
1    0    1
1    1    0
1    1    0
1    1    0
1    1    0
1    1    0
1    1    0
1    1    0
1    1    1
1    1    1
1    1    1
1    1    1
1    1    1
1    1    1
1    1    2
1    1    2
1    2    0
1    2    0
1    2    1
1    3    2
2    0    0
2    0    0
2    0    0
2    0    1
2    0    1
2    0    1
2    0    1
2    0    2
2    0    2
2    1    0
2    1    0
2    1    1
2    1    1
2    1    1
2    1    2
2    1    2
2    1    2
2    1    2
2    2    0
2    2    2
3    0    1
3    1    2

You should immediately notice that, just as in the case of the mailboxes listed in the cache80.txt file, there is also a continuum in the sequence of mailbox numbers. If we were to append the mailbox numbers for the next 5 cycles of play, to this list and do a resort, we would find that the sequencing would become finer, in the sense that less "holes" would be present. Let's have a look at what is missing not going higher that a 3  for any digit. These are the best mailboxes to play, because they contain fewer entries. Our list of missing mailbox numbers looks something like: 022,031, 102, 103, 113, 122, 123, etc.  We would expect to see some of these mailbox numbers appearing over the next 5 cycles of play.

Let's update the draw file with 3 cycles worth of draws and see what happens. After updating drawsP3.txt and saving, run mailBox100 with 0 for the upper and lower bounds, just to get the output files. Our 3 new cycles will correspond to cyles 5, 4, and 3(cycle 5 is always the latest cycle). Here are the mailboxes that had winning entries for these three cycles of play(sorted):

379    0    0    0    115    5    1
574    0    0    0    115    5    2
887    0    0    0    115    5    12
152    0    0    0    115    5    19
030    0    0    0    116    4    17
124    0    0    0    116    4    19
240    0    0    0    128    3    4
920    0    0    0    128    3    7
241    0    0    0    128    3    18
022    0    0    1    62    3    14
143    0    0    1    62    3    17
959    0    0    2    21    4    2
749    0    1    0    84    5    11
246    0    1    0    70    3    11
693    0    1    0    70    3    13
854    0    1    1    89    5    5
619    0    1    1    89    5    13
253    0    1    1    89    5    14
869    0    1    1    47    4    12
298    0    1    1    53    3    1
069    0    1    2    19    5    3
859    0    1    2    19    5    8
286    0    1    4    4    3    15
934    0    2    0    34    3    5
445    0    2    1    10    3    16
322    0    3    1    17    3    19
025    1    0    0    60    5    17
847    1    0    0    60    5    18
948    1    0    0    81    4    6
323    1    0    0    81    4    9
844    1    0    0    81    4    14
870    1    0    0    81    4    20
946    1    0    1    37    5    15
620    1    0    1    60    4    3
204    1    1    1    65    5    9
920    1    1    1    46    4    5
692    1    1    1    46    4    11
166    1    1    1    46    4    13
802    1    1    1    50    3    10
869    1    1    2    15    5    4
967    1    1    2    21    3    6
308    1    1    3    9    3    2
190    1    2    0    28    4    7
299    1    2    0    28    4    18
209    1    2    1    28    5    10
862    1    2    1    28    5    16
833    1    2    1    21    3    8
345    1    2    1    21    3    20
300    2    0    0    26    5    20
004    2    0    0    31    4    1
234    2    0    1    15    4    16
454    2    0    1    26    3    9
766    2    1    1    12    4    4
111    2    1    2    9    3    12
806    2    1    4    3    5    6
784    2    2    1    12    3    3
263    3    0    0    13    4    15
241    3    1    1    10    5    7
406    3    1    3    1    4    8
111    3    2    3    1    4    10

Notice that mailbox numbers 031 and 131 now appear, because they contained winning entries. Draw 322 was in mailbox 031 and came out on day 4 of the first cycle of play. In addition there were 17 entries in mailbox 031. Had we played these entries, we would spent 68 dollars to get a 900 dollar win. Draw 308 was in mailbox 113, which contained only 9 entries. It came out on day 18 of the first cycle of play. Had we played these entries, we would have won 900 dollars for a 162 dollar investment.

Follow this example very carefully, and create your own examples in the very same way, so you get the feel for making selections using this methodolgy. There are other strategies to consider, and we'll talk about these in the next series.

Just one more tip: Never look for a second winner. Once  the mailbox entries you are playing has shown a hit, take your profit and stop play. It's not to often that you'll find more than one winner in a mailbox, especially mailbox numbers that have higher digits. Also consider using seperate pools when you are playing entries from more than one mailbox.

Entry #3