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Why aren't we better at picking jackpot numbers? (Maybe)

Published:

Last Edited: August 27, 2005, 12:53 pm

It might be it’s impossible.

It might be as someone’s suggested, a part of Chaos Theory.

Or, maybe we just assume too much. Maybe we aren’t looking closely enough, but with enough distance to appreciate what we’re seeing.

I approach the numbers and understanding their behavior in much the way I approach research and searching for the Lost Adams Diggings. The product of decades of that activity has caused me to do my best to avoid assumptions. I always try to go back to the basics, see for myself, rather than trust that others found, whether it’s documents, or an easily overlooked side-canyon.

I’ve found that, no matter how many people are evidenced to have been into a canyon before me, there’s a lot they’ve overlooked. Probably, the people who search there after me will also find a lot I’ve overlooked.

I suspect the same is true with number behavior.

An example, among the many involving the Adams Diggings, came a while back. A treasure hunter sent me the following picture:

He was sure he’d found the Adams Diggings, based on what he’d seen from an airplane and photographed.

He’d even been there on the ground, but hadn’t performed a lot of the basic tests to discover where there was anything there.

I examined the photos he sent more closely.

 

I was seeing signs of a lot of human activity.  Trails, tailings piles, possibly an arrastra (crusher), and maybe an enormous sluicebox.  I asked him how these appeared on the ground, or maybe in his other photos.  I sent him the one above, and these to illustrate what I wanted to know about:

 

I also had some questions about this picture that was taken from the ground near a 'secret' entrance to the canyon:

 That's not the entrance he used, evidently he hadn't even noticed it, that cavity about 1 oclock in the picture.  But here's a closer look:

Look in the lower right in the shadow.  Specifically, look at the carcass of a truck there:

This man is an experienced, long--seasoned bush pilot and treasure hunter.  He had every opportunity to see all this, but he missed it.

It can happen to anyone, to me, to all of us.  We begin by making assumptions, build on those assumptions, and our eyes sometimes close to what's right in front of them.

I believe the same thing might be happening to most of us in trying to understand the behavior of numbers and lotteries.

Jack

 

 

 

Entry #222

Comments

1.
LottoVantageComment by LottoVantage - August 28, 2005, 1:35 pm
Why aren't we better at picking jackpot numbers? (Maybe)

It might be it's impossible.

It might be as someone's suggested, a part of Chaos Theory.

Jack,

The Chaos Theory thing, as related to lotterys, is very simple. You take an established lottery database, introduce alternate balls and machines, and you create chaos within the database. This perspective preempt's repeatability. The more this occurs, the more the numbers strive to "catch up" forcing the database to run rampant up and down from least hit to most hit within a given parameter.

Just a thought to arouse your musings,

Good luck!

LottoVantage
2.
Comment by Rip Snorter - August 28, 2005, 1:45 pm
Thanks for the comment LottoVantage:

If the starting point for an individual's thinking, that is to say, the original assumption, is that the numbers are random, then I suppose a person could arrive at the conclusion you've provided.

I'd say that's far and away the usual starting point for people who think about such matters.

My belief that there's a starting place that goes deeper than that assumption doesn't make it true. It only makes it possible to examine whether it might be true, how it might be true, and how that potential truth might be manifesting itself.

Good luck to you,
Jack
3.
Comment by Rip Snorter - August 28, 2005, 2:02 pm
I probably should have explained:

I have a lot of respect for assumptions and opinions arrived at by careful examination of the evidence. But my impression is that the evidence is usually examined after the assumption is made, rather than before it, thereby causing the evidence to beat the examiner over the head with a sledgehammer and hold him at gunpoint to get enough respect to overcome pre-existing wisdom.
J
4.
LottoVantageComment by LottoVantage - August 28, 2005, 5:19 pm
Well, going one layer deeper, it's my thinking that no two balls or machines are absolutely identical. That said, I don't believe any ball/machine drawing is absolutely random. If this were so, where would the advantage be in constantly switching balls and/or machines? The lottery directors control the outcome to some degree by switching ball/machine sets, voiding any opportunity for an absolutely random drawing.

Good luck!

LottoVantage
5.
Comment by Rip Snorter - August 28, 2005, 5:54 pm
Thanks again for another comment LottoVantage.

I don't have a problem with your logic. Heck, I agree with your logic.

What I have a problem with is the evidence that's before my eyes. It's entirely empirical, but it says something entirely different from what you're saying.

One of the cool things about posting a lot of boring figures on a blog is that nobody bothers to look at them and see if they make any sense. It takes a lot of the worry out of whether it's actually wise to post such things. If a person could post the access numbers to all the swiss bank accounts in existence with some confidence that nobody's going to read it and take it seriously, the act of doing it would probably seem a lot less foolish than it actually would be from the perspective of logic.

Jack
6.
LottoVantageComment by LottoVantage - August 28, 2005, 9:52 pm
Thanks Jack,

Your entirely correct! Logic generally prevails over substance even when the evidence is obvious. So many souls are searching for an answer to their question, but refuse to accept what is freely given in good faith.

Good luck!

LottoVantage

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