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The courage to believe - revisited

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Last Edited: October 2, 2005, 7:29 pm

I've posted something about this on one of the threads, but I think it might be also worth a blog entry. 

Not too many months ago a guy on one of the Lottery Systems threads performed something worth revisiting now and then. 

He made the claim that he could predict the numbers that would hit on MM.  Naturally, there was more than the necessary doubt from all quarters.  He was challenged to do it.

As I recall, he posted 20 numbers several hours before one of the draws, plus one or several red ball choices.

He got 4+1 that night.

Evidently, he was pestered to death by people wanting him to tell how he did it, and some opportunists from another site began trying to ride his success.  The interest and excitement died away and seems forgotten.  So far as I know he's out there somewhere in the world winning enough money to impress himself, so he doesn't revisit LP.

But that was a bright moment worth reminding ourselves of, occasionally, when things seem hopeless.  A guy announcing he has a system that works, announcing what numbers will hit a few hours later, and those numbers, five of them, hitting.

Maybe, as some sneered, it was an accident he couldn't repeat.  But there's another, brighter possibility.  Maybe the guy was onto something we all want and just haven't found yet.  He was long on cryptic remarks...."History always repeats itself."  "Keep it simple."  But it seemed to have something to do with column hits and history.

He was doing it all by hand.  Didn't even use a spreadsheet.  Wondered, in his remarks, whether software could do it easier.  I'm not any great shakes with comps, but he PMed me asking me some questions about how spreadsheets work.

I'll keep looking, turning over every rock until I convince myself that announcement and draw were just the coincidence coordinators playing a trick.

On the thread another LP member rightfully pointed out BLs single announcement he could predict it, followed a few hours later by 4+1  didn't constitute proof his system worked. 

True.  But if it worked he had not further reason to prove it on LP.

Jack

http://blogs.lotterypost.com/rip_snorter/2005/04/ 

Contains the following post about him in April:

The courage to disbelieve

And the courage to believe.

I've been thinking a lot lately about Alonzo Wright, maybe the real name of the man who calls himself BigLoooser.  He evidently predicted the MM results for the third time last night, announcing his predictions before the draw to various members of the DB.

So what does this mean?  What does it say about Alonzo Wright?  What does it say about conventional wisdom?  What does it say about hard 'knowledge'?  What does it say about the fundamental assumptions of scientists, statisticians, hard-nosed businessmen and politicians who promoted the governmental adoption of lotteries as a 'voluntary tax on stupidity', as one politician described it when my own state was adopting Power Ball?

I'll begin with the last.  What Alonzo Wright, and the man I described in the Strange Experience thread under the Mystical forum have proven is that assumptions and matter-of-fact beliefs by people who 'know' aren't necessarily any more solidly founded in truth than the bald declarations the guys sitting around in the barbershop used to make circa 1957, about how the Good Lord would destroy us, the same as He destroyed Babylon when they tried to build a tower to the sky.  Ain't going to be no artificial moons up there circling the earth.  Any fool knew better than that.

That was just prior to the Russkies sending Sputnik I into orbit. 

As for 'knowledge' conventional wisdom, fundamental assumptions:

If you go back and read the posts in the Software Development thread under the Lottery Systems Forum, read how it was the days after Alonzo announced what he could do, but hadn't yet proven it, you'll see the 2005, version of the barbershop matter-of-fact pronouncements that he couldn't do it.  And any scientist, statistician, or hard-nosed businessman would have said the same thing.  That's 'hard' knowledge for you.  Science.  Conventional wisdom, all wrapped up in a pretty package and tied with a bow.

For some reason, Alonzo had the courage to shrug off all that wisdom and knowledge.  He had the confidence that it could be done.  That he could do it.  And all the PHDs, book science and smartypants scoffers and naysayers on the DB weren't about to deter him.

Alonzo bought himself an adventure.  The tools he used were courage, self-belief and probably a lot of hard work.  We don't know much about Alonzo, but we know he's a man who's able to dream with the courage to go places most of us don't bother to go.

Alonzo had the confidence to disbelieve and the profound courage to admit it at the risk of appearing a fool in the eyes of lesser men.  A lot of those lesser men on this DB measured themselves during those days prior to Alonzo's demo, and forgot how tall they were immediately afterward.

Jack

 

Entry #341

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