excepted from internet/James Gleick's "Chaos Making a New Science"
Chaos theory (or lottery predicting) is the scientific theory concerned with situations that obey particular laws but appear to have little or no order; it attempts to explain the fact that complex and unpredictable results will occur in systems that are sensitive to their initial conditions. A common example for chaos theory is the butterfly effect. In theory a butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon is affecting the weather conditions in Chicago. This basically means that the butterfly's wings flapping is considered the infinitesimal change in initial conditions that causes a random occurrence to the weather in Chicago. ………….
The theory of probability is essential in the modeling and analysis of these random situations. There are some aspects of life however that we expect and in many situations hope that the behaviors exhibited is predictable. It has been said that in recent times the distinction between random and deterministic has become less certain…….
The weather system is a prime example of a random system. Weather patterns seem to be very unpredictable. However, over the years mathematical models have been set up that have enabled the weather patterns to be predicted but not to a particularly high degree of accuracy. These have been set up using knowledge on old weather patterns and by understanding how different types of weather come about. Short-term forecasts are often quite similar to the actual outcome yet they are not always entirely right. Long-term forecasts are often quite different to the actual weather patterns exhibited. This difference between prediction and outcome is due to minor disturbances within the weather system that cannot always be predicted even by mathematical models. Each disturbance in the weather system minute as it seems will cause a change that will increase geometrically over time such that in the future the weather will be totally unpredictable and unexpected. …….
Chaotic systems display extreme sensitivity to small changes in the initial conditions. Chaos will arise in situations where two arbitrary close starting points diverge exponentially so that their future behavior is eventually unpredictable...as with lottery outcomes, and yet we continue predicting and wagering.
I am intrigued and love it. How about You?
Your personal predictions, Comments and Input are invited.