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Lottery Fallacy?


Last Edited: November 6, 2005, 8:00 pm

Lottery Fallacy

  The argument assigns a probability to a random event based on the notion that the past history of that type of event has some influence on its probability or future occurrence.

  This fallacy includes supposing that a random event is more likely to occur because it has not happened for a long time, or less likely to occur because it recently happened, or less likely to occur because it has not happened for a long time, or more likely to occur because it recently happened. An alternative version of the fallacy (sometimes called the Lottery Fallacy) is to say that a past event must have been highly probably (or even inevitable) merely because it did in fact occur.



Fla Cash 3

Expected # of Wins for

6 Months

+/- 18

12 Months

+/- 36

18 Months

+/- 54

 24 Months

  +/- 72

36 Months

    +/- 108

60 Months

+/- 180

2nd Position # 2


3rd Position Digit # 3








My Fallacy:  I know within the next 60 days that  2nd Position # 2 will somehow win with less frequency, and the 3rd Position # 3's frequency rate of win will increase.

 A Gamer who believes the Gambler's Fallacy is just that a Fallacy.               Stats sometimes Rule.

Entry #35


Comment by pacattack05 - November 6, 2005, 8:02 pm
Trends and patterns are here to see. That's a fact. Random...Chaos.....it doesn't matter. Everything in the universe has a pattern to it. Just look around and you'll see that with enough time random events, to us look like ordered systems.

Remember the Fibonacci scale?

jordi mareyComment by jordi marey - November 6, 2005, 8:42 pm
well stated,

thank you Pacattack05
Comment by Greg - November 6, 2005, 10:29 pm
Perhaps this issue was best addressed by Gail Howard in her book Lottery Master Guide wherein she talks about patterns and identifying them. You can read more about the book at her website.

Comment by Rip Snorter - November 6, 2005, 11:22 pm
Some things are just worth taking on faith. The premise that the lotteries are random isn't one of them. Some, or all the patterns are fixed, behave the same on all lotteries, or enough lotteries to make it worth knowing those patterns. As an example, on PB when 2, 6 and 14 hit consecutively in the first column there will always be a 37 on the next draw, or occasionally on the one following it, though that's rare. There will also almost always be a 16.

I haven't checked the other lotteries completely, but I'd bet it's true on MM and the pick 6s, as well. I'd also bet on the pick 5s that don't go to 37 the 16 will always be there instead of the 37.

For me that's a pattern that, combined with a number of similar facts represents something approaching proof that ball sets, RNG aside, the numbers are hitting as part of an overall matrix. Behaving according to a complex set of rules or physical laws. The fact we don't know why doesn't alter the larger fact that they're doing it.

Just my take on it.

jordi mareyComment by jordi marey - November 7, 2005, 6:19 am
Jack, love your take --an overall matrix, set of physical laws.

Greg, I will check out the Gail Howard site. sounds interesting. thanks for the reference.

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