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An invitation to use your noggins


Morning blogsters:

Those of you who are sending me PMs asking for my advice and opinions about various lotteries and what's going to hit would be doing yourselves a big favor if you pause a moment.  Lean back in your chairs and ponder.

You are basing those PMs on a false assumption, which is that I'm a good predictor.  I'm not.  If you examine my history of prediction, the best day I've got on the record, or series of days, you'll find stark testimony in the numbers that I'm a lousy predictor.

What you are looking for isn't here at LP.  The fact I'm as sorry at predicting as I am, and that I look as though I'm awfully good based on the prediction statistics only means one thing:  The people predicting on LP are at least as unsuccessful at it as I am.

My statistics will show I've made a lot of predictions and that I'm somewhat ahead in the game, overall.  That's not something worth your awe.  It's something you need to just stop and consider.  One of the best prediction records on LP at this morning is not much ahead of breaking even.

LP has lots of predictors giving you a drumbeat of what numbers you ought to go out and spend your money on, every day.  But no matter how loud they are in their chest beating, their claiming they take it to the bank, the fact is you have no evidence they're making money with their own predictions.  They don't show it on the LP records.

What are you doing trusting something like that?  What are you doing asking a guy who ain't getting rich even with imaginary money, me, about anything?

I don't know anything.  Obviously nobody else does, either.

Give some thought to studying the numbers on your own.  Maybe you can figure it out.

But recognize that the folks here are no different than you are.  We aren't genius material.  We're just trying our best to figure this thing out, same as you ought to be.

We obviously haven't succeeded yet, and you'd be crazy to spend money on any predictions I make, or that anyone else here makes.  If the people you are trusting for advice are losing, where do you come off trusting what they say?


Entry #470


four4meComment by four4me - December 5, 2005, 3:19 pm
Jack that what happens when you become a top predictor. Some people think you are the Guru of slim pickings. Many don't know that over the long haul it's a miracle to break even.

Still others may wonder why a person is a top predictor even if in over a year they haven't posted more the a hundred picks. And of which only a few of their picks ever won.

Then there are people who for all intensive purposes are really good predictors have many hundreds of hits even thousands of hits and barely make the top 25 list.

You are in the lime light now because you made a few good selections. Congratulations for that. I wonder how much karma has to do with some people wins versus loses. I think if one has good karma they might be more adapt to picking good picks while others who out of sheer desperation couldn't pick a winning combo if their life depended on it.
Comment by Rip Snorter - December 5, 2005, 3:27 pm
Thanks for the comment Four4me.

Me, I dunno.


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