backtest logic fixed for SoniQ BOOM system

Published: December 26, 2005, 2:27 pm

finally fixed the logic...

results overall

28 years, expected 28 hits, got 64 hits!

cost to play $9,881

amount won $32,000

net profit $22,119

best year = 1980 with 10 straight hits!

years without a hit 1983, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2003

last hit 2/12/2005 2-7-0

I noticed that the 90's usually represent the downfall of most systems. I wonder why?

in all, this system is a winner, save for cyclic hit rate. SoniQ BOOM is a.k.a. the Precursor Announcer system.

I finally have something worth giving to the community, but it's not ready just yet, the sheet is COMPLEX! the process of adapting to a new state is also complex, time-consuming and computationally intense. Tonight I will adapt to PA evening big 4. IF that goes as well, I am ready to take this to the LP community for open refinement (sheet will be on my website, all 6 megs of it, when ready...)

I am not starting off with a hairbrained concept (like I have countless times in the past), I have formed a theory, and tested it to a system that passes basic backtesting... I will need fresh eyes to look at it, to pick up win opportunities I missed, to double check logic... I think this can help everyone.

anyone up to the challenge?

Entry #95

Comments

truecritic - Dec 26, 2005, 2:47 pm

I don't have or use Excel but I have been loosely following your progress as I am sure others have. The Excel files I downloaded previously will not import to the generic spreadsheets I have. Not really interested in Open Office.

Nonetheless, I am glad to see you solving the complex equations and getting it running. Figure you at least deserve a pat on the back for simply getting it up and running. The fact that you now show a profit deserves even MORE than a pat on the back!

jordi marey - Dec 26, 2005, 3:04 pm

I am looking forward to reading more about your Play Straight? system. Although I am a Florida res and player and our Pick 3 only started in mid '88, it is great to read you are making headway. Keep at it.

Oh, ever consider those long and intermittant period of no wins could be due to a change in companies conducting the drawings?

hypersoniq - Dec 26, 2005, 5:04 pm

big 4 results are currently being calculated. I have yet to see ANY backtested system beat the big 4, and it only requires 2 hits (based on $1 bet). vtrac mirrors produced 1 in 25 years.
It is slow going, because I am recalculating about 300 draws at a time, then replacing the formulas with values (to speed up recalculation and make it manageable)... there are currently 7,366 draws and I am up to 3,226... once they are in place, I can fire up the backtesting and count hits (if any)

jordi: I know Scientific Games has the PA draws now, I don't know how to determine past games management for PA, any ideas? (interesting theory BTW!)

LANTERN - Dec 26, 2005, 5:51 pm

You are doing very good.

hypersoniq - Dec 26, 2005, 7:53 pm

wow!
pick 4 results are in. they pass cyclic redundancy! (just because the amount paid is alot)

PA evening pick 4
25 years, expected 2 hits (needed to pass), got 11 !!!!!!!

cost to play $7,367
amount won $55,000
net profit $47,633

now the bad news
Last Hit 7/20/2001 4-3-3-9
years missed 1980-1983, 1985-1987, 1991-1994, 1996-1997, 2000, 2002-present day

so, since 1 $1 straight bet returns $5,000, you only need 1 hit every 4,998 draws.

the good news is that this is the first system I have backtested to get more than 1 big4 hit.

hypersoniq - Dec 26, 2005, 8:22 pm

hit rates look pathetic when comparing hits to number of draws...

pick 3 hit percent is 0.627466%

pick 4 hit percent is 0.149314%

and they still won! surely we can improve that, right?

LANTERN - Dec 26, 2005, 9:19 pm

There should be a way.

backtest logic fixed for SoniQ BOOM system

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