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Potentially Devastating News on the Obama Economy


By William  Tate

The  Gallup Organization had some bad news for Barack Obama on Friday. It's not that  Obama fell behind Mitt Romney by two points in Gallup's daily tracking poll,  although that couldn't have helped the the O-Team's spirits heading into the  weekend. Between now and the election, polls are likely to be less stable than  Joe Biden's thought process.

The  really bad news for the Chicago mob is that Gallup's unemployment survey shows  the Obama economy is getting even worse. Gallup reported an uptick in  joblessness in their latest survey of 30,000 households.

"(T)his  suggests that the government's unadjusted unemployment rate could increase to  8.7% ... The government's measurement of the unadjusted unemployment rate has  been known to differ with Gallup's findings, but a drop of 0.3% ... is  necessary to bring the government's unadjusted rate down to Gallup  levels."

However,  the figure that is most commonly used in reporting joblessness is the Bureau of  Labor Statistics's (BLS's) seasonally adjusted rate. Of that rate, Gallup  notes:

"More  interestingly, there were no BLS seasonal adjustments in August 2011.  If this remains the same in 2012, the Gallup seasonally adjusted  unemployment rate for August would be 8.3% while that of the BLS would be 8.7%,  assuming a similar increase to that shown in the Gallup data."

That  would represent a .4% increase over last month's numbers and would raise the  official government jobless rate dangerously close to 9%.

Gallup  adds:

"Further,  Gallup's data show the labor force participation rate to be increasing in  August. In turn, that could have an additional negative impact on the  unemployment rate for August if the government's data show a similar  pattern."

Gallup  hints that only something like manipulation of data will prevent the BLS from  reporting a substantial increase in unemployment.

"Regardless,  barring heroic adjustments or a sharp change in direction, Gallup data  suggest the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for August will increase  -- possibly substantially -- when announced in early September." (emphasis  added)

As  previously noted, Gallup pointed out that last year's August data was not  adjusted. It will be interesting to see if the BLS decides to adjust their data  this year.

The  BLS has generally enjoyed a favorable reputation. However, under the Obama gang,  economists have begun to scratch their heads over some of the numbers produced.  Last month, for instance, the Bureau's payroll survey of employers reported the  economy added a slightly better than expected number of jobs, but the BLS also  reported that the unemployment rate actually increased. That's because its  separate survey of 60,000 households, the one that most closely matches  Gallup's, reported that 200,000 fewer folks had jobs in July.

The  Bureau of Labor Statistics will report its August unemployment figures, the  next-to-last report before the November election, on September 7th -- about the  time many people start giving the election serious thought. It's been said that  the campaign doesn't start until after Labor Day.

With  Gallup reporting on Friday that 1 in 4 American workers are either unemployed or  underemployed -- not counting the millions of folks who've given up looking for  work -- this is simply devastating news for the guy who said he'd be a  one-termer if he didn't fix the economy. Or would be if it's  reported.

Look  for it to be buried, though.

Instead  we're likely to see coverage of how many years of his taxes Romney should  release, or the differences between Romney's and Paul Ryan's budget proposals,  or Obama campaign stops, or, say, Hillary's hairdo. Anything but the one thing  that just about everybody predicted would be the central issue heading into this  election.

There  used to be an old joke that, if you wanted to distract somebody, you'd point in  the air behind them and say, "Look, it's the Goodyear blimp!"

So,  when you hear or read about Romney's taxes, or Ryan's budget, or even  gaffe-a-minute Biden's latest mis-statement, it's the media's way of pointing  over your shoulder and trying to convince you that there's a certain dirigible  back there.

Don't  fall for it. It's a trick.

William  Tate is an award-winning journalist and  author

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/08/potentially_devastating_news_on_the_obama_economy.html#ixzz23yBl4gJM

Entry #24


JAP69Comment by JAP69 - August 19, 2012, 7:09 am
Not good news for the American people.
Vote wisely
MADDOG10Comment by MADDOG10 - August 19, 2012, 10:17 am
Not good news at all.
This time take the time to look around you and vote with your head.
Don't be mesmerized by rhetoric...
rdgrnrComment by rdgrnr - August 19, 2012, 7:29 pm
The good people of this country will set this straight on November 6th.
Steady as she goes.

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