What is it that Lottery Players want in a system? Some are happy with narrowing a field of numbers by about 1/2 and wheeling the results... Others want a system that generates fewer lines... bottom line is everyone wants to win... Although I have dabbled in trapping, my overall goal remains the same... One Shot, One Kill... a system that generates just one pick, win-or-lose. That system I have, but it loses more than wins... To that end I will use this entry to remind myself of what it is I am after...

The Goal: To develop a system that incorporates draw history (both long term profile and short term trends) to generate the most likely set of results for the next drawing... ONE LINE... that pernorms better than the state's QP's over a pre-determined timeframe... that should WIN more than is invested in a reasonable amount of time...

Steps I have taken:

   1. I have developed a system that takes the 12 picks I used to play every draw and uses a weighting system borrowed from Artificial Neural Networks to give precedence to better pernorming components to narrow the field down to just ONE best pick.

   2. Probably the biggest personal step of all, I have disciplined myself to only play ONE ticket per draw, regardless of the jackpot size. I now spend in one week less than half of what I would spend on one draw. That's a good thing in and of itself... It is just a game with ridiculous odds, and the fun gets diminished when checking a pile of losing tickets vs. checking your one ticket... I have done both and although I miss the better chance for lower tier prizes afforded by multiple tickets, in the end the good outweighs the bad. Since dropping Match6, I spend $4 a week on powerball (2 draws @$2, one line + power play) where I would easily drop $10 or even $20 on one PB draw before (without powerplay). I even paper test system changes without playing both tickets... Without having this mindset, a one shot system would be impossible, not that I am not tempted to fork over more green at a high JP, I just don't anymore. ;-)

   3. I had tested this system for one month by buying a quick pick along with my ticket, week after week my system was closer to the results than the QP was... there was not even one time where the QP did better.

   4. I continually look for ways to improve the overall accuracy of the pick. I have delta data since I started with the system to see if any trends develop in how far I was off... so far there are no definite trends.

Steps I need to take:

   1. Incorporate proper backtest normulae. My results are just typed, I can't retroactively change the system and see what the ripple effect would be like I can with the components.

   2. Seek higher accuracy.

   3. Shake the rust off of my VB programming skills, I have become far too comfortable in excel... I don't even use access anymore.... I need to incorporate the other tools before I forget how to use them, not much call for a DBA on a machine shop floor...

   4. WIN. I don't want to be the last person in PA who hasn't won a major Powerball jackpot...

Summary:  I have the plan for what to do IF I ever win, I have a system capapble of generating just one pick and the ability to stick to just playing that one pick... Things are going good with the job, things were always good at home... If I never win, I still can't complain about life, it's what you make of it. I am not even remotely wealthy, but I don't need to win.... I WANT to win, I want to beat the system, and I want to do it with one ticket... that is my Quest... It's David (Me, actually it's John, but i digress...) vs. Goliath (THe M.U.S.L.) and I'm ready to "rock".

As long as they are dangling millions up for grabs, I'll have my ticket in the mix... Let them throw their spikes and other statistical anomalies, with one ticket, I know my odds... I am still playing for "free" on that $28 hit a few weeks ago...

wow, one-shot in practice has brought back some fun to the game for me... I already have my pick for wednesday... so to the MUSL...

Game ON...

Bring it!