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Building blocks...

Published:

So, what are the metrics required for building a system? how could you use past draw information to pick future draws?

Fundamental questions to be sure, and considering what we try to do everyday, ones that need some attention.

I have come up with 4 tools to add to a draw profile, for each position in a pick3...

1.Count... show how many times 0-9 followed the currently drawn number throughout your selected draw history.

2.Day Of Month... based on the 1-31 range, shows 0-9 for the last draw on THAT day of the month, a filter... a subset of the data above.

3.Day Of Week... based on 1-7, so i can see what followed a 9, for example, every time a 9 came up on a tuesday...

4.Simple follower... if a 6 is picked tonight, and a 3 was picked last night, how do 0-9 look when the 3-6 chain is previously drawn.

 

now the question... which is more important? the one with the highest count? the one with the highest opportunities for a match?

I am developing a backtest that will check all 4 tools against the draw history to see if any could have been used for a winning system... found some glimmer of hope on the midday drawing using the day of the month, using just the MAX count it would have paid 5 straight hits in 2,200 draws, which on $1 st. would leave a profit of $300, currently... 

So much to do before even paper testing can begin...

So, what tools are in your system? (Notice I was not counting Even/Odd, Hot/Cold, Low/High... filters not used in a system where the end result is just one number).

Entry #192

Comments

1.
MonElComment by MonEl - November 1, 2014, 3:28 pm
So, what are the metrics required for building a system?
You yourself make the requirements, just as you did, something is just as good as something else, whatever seems to work or work best after you test.

How could you use past draw information to pick future draws?
There probably are many ways.

Now the question... which is more important? the one with the highest count? the one with the highest opportunities for a match?

I am more than a little dense, I fail to understand, but doesn't the highest count would have the highest opportunity for a match? As I said, I probably don't understand.

Those four requirements might be what you need, otherwise discard one or more, make one or more new-ones and retest.

Good luck.
2.
hypersoniqComment by hypersoniq - November 1, 2014, 11:58 pm
the first instance would be the one with the most opportunities, because nothing is filtered out. That being said, the filtered results keep pace with the unfiltered results with regard to matches.
I have seen in the results that the highest count of occurrences did not back test as well as a filtered subset of the data with less chances to have a positive count.
I apologize, i generally use this blog to just dump out whatever is on my mind so i can get back to it later... looks like i'm fit for the loony bin sometimes...
Hopefully I can get back and answer the questions i threw out at a later date. My method of playing is very cheap with looooong spells of no hits, so this time I am also adding a component that can indicate when NOT to play, making it even cheaper,
3.
MonElComment by MonEl - November 2, 2014, 1:05 am
O.K.
That does give some more info, not that I really understand exactly what is happening, but yes, the cheapper, the better. You know "things" only relate to each other statistically, as any one thing doesn't have anything at all to do with anything else, but prediction is all about statistics and the make-up of the game.
All is about statistical chances (statistical probabilities), luck is when statistical probabilities favor you, otherwise you try to make your own luck (educated guess).
Good luck.
4.
JAP69Comment by JAP69 - February 3, 2015, 8:04 pm
4.Simple follower.
____________________
simple follower by position
What follows even
What follows odd
What follows low
What follows high

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