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# Lucky lottery lady outed as Stanford University statistics PhD

Topic closed. 74 replies. Last post 9 years ago by martingorgeous.

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 imagineUnited StatesMember #85044January 7, 2010102 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 12:58 amjimmy4164The odds came from a series of mathmatecians that the AP consulted when the original story came out.The author consulted a statician who said actually they are much higher. I think you posted the wrong link.  That thread has been closed for a year.
 jeffreyHamilton, OHUnited StatesMember #4162March 27, 2004277 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 1:15 amQuote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on August 9, 2011This is an old story, bandied about here before.It is nothing but harebrained, unproven, speculation, designed to get tongues wagging.So, the odds of her winning these 4 lottery games is 1 in 18 septillion?  I'm afraid not.  Some idiot multipled together the probabilities of winning each of the 4 to come up with that number.  Just as the probability of flipping a coin heads is 50%, no matter how many times it previously came up heads, so is the probability of winning a subsequent lottery prize of any amount WHATEVER THE GAME WAS DESIGNED FOR, no matter how many games the player had won leading up to that day.This is an absurd story which does no more than propagate fallacious thinking about probability and lotteries.The illogic in it is farcical!"Although Ginther now lives in Las Vegas, she won all four of her lotteries in Texas.Three of her wins, all in two-year intervals, were by scratch-off tickets bought at the same mini mart in the town of Bishop.Rich proceeds to detail the myriad ways in which Ginther could have gamed the system — including the fact that she may have figured out the algorithm that determines where a winner is placed in each run of scratch-off tickets."It wouldn't matter if she had multiple PhDs in all the sciences; the implications of this last sentence are foolish!"The Texas Lottery Commission told Rich that Ginther must have been 'born under a lucky star', and that they don't suspect foul play."RJOh made the most compelling observation that anyone should be able to comprehend at 5:27 PM yesterday!--Jimmy4164https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174where did you study math? sharpen those pencils and try again.
 jimmy4164United StatesMember #93943July 10, 20102180 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 1:16 amQuote: Originally posted by imagine on August 9, 2011jimmy4164The odds came from a series of mathmatecians that the AP consulted when the original story came out.The author consulted a statician who said actually they are much higher. I think you posted the wrong link.  That thread has been closed for a year.No, I'm referring to an earlier treatment of this same Ginther "affair."  When that ridiculous odds number was mentioned before, it was a joke to anyone who knows that the only way to get such an astronomical number is to MULTIPLY the odds of each of the 4 games by each other, which is patently absurd, unless you were predicting IN ADVANCE that you were going to win 4 specific games, IN ADVANCE!!  It's still a joke!  Of course, if you believe that the odds of a coin coming up heads is less that 50% after it's been flipped 10 times heads, then the x septillions number will compute for you!  Has any PhD math professor come forward to own that claim above?I stand by my statements above. The link I posted was purposely to my own year old thread, one that needs to be read by all...
 imagineUnited StatesMember #85044January 7, 2010102 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 1:30 amNo professor is named in the article.I thought it was the link for this:"RJOh made the most compelling observation that anyone should be able to comprehend at 5:27 PM yesterday!"What thread are you refrencing, was gonna have a look see, thanks.
 joker17United StatesMember #75356June 1, 20095345 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 2:00 amI think eveyone is thinking too hard. S**t happens. Even with random distribution of scratch offs, there's bound to be clusters of winners. It's a given, rare, but nevertheless it happens. It looks biased, but it's not. Spread-out randomness will, from time to time experience events where it will cross paths within itself creating clusters or anomolies.  Highs and lows where the lines intersect.I knew someone in the Navy, in Key West where I was stationed years ago, who was struck by lightning 3 times years before. S**t happens.
 joker17United StatesMember #75356June 1, 20095345 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 2:05 amQuote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on August 9, 2011No, I'm referring to an earlier treatment of this same Ginther "affair."  When that ridiculous odds number was mentioned before, it was a joke to anyone who knows that the only way to get such an astronomical number is to MULTIPLY the odds of each of the 4 games by each other, which is patently absurd, unless you were predicting IN ADVANCE that you were going to win 4 specific games, IN ADVANCE!!  It's still a joke!  Of course, if you believe that the odds of a coin coming up heads is less that 50% after it's been flipped 10 times heads, then the x septillions number will compute for you!  Has any PhD math professor come forward to own that claim above?I stand by my statements above. The link I posted was purposely to my own year old thread, one that needs to be read by all...The coin being flipped 10 times heads you think, may still have a 50/50 chance on the 11th, but what would you personally bet on the 11th?No math jargon or any other theories, just answer the question honestly. Thanx...
 Delta DrawUnited StatesMember #81841October 31, 2009856 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 2:08 am+ I think it is pure luck and a coincidence that the winner is a statistician. The only way to beat astronomical odds is luck.- But,… would not the odds for each game stand on their own? If the person plays a new hand in a new game are not the odds for that game set? The guy is on a lucky roll. Same thing happens to a gambler who goes from game to game in a casino.? Why would lotteries distribute winners to just one general area of a state? Are those not lucky areas even if a computer is used to decide them? Computers do not understand luck.~?!! I don’t know about you but septillions is way bigger than I can comprehend, therefore I like luck for an explanation. Scru Texas running up a hill; are they feeling unlucky???~++ If all of one's good luck has been given to another, I say go for it Mr. G. You did your homework and beat the odds when you figured out which bowl the goldfish were in. Random is a beautiful thing.!?~? The man knew about his game and played to win. His computer will be attacked, his phone will be tapped and he is guilty first, without any fact. They will look into his debit, credit and cash machine activity. If he has a sexy new car with GPS they can paint quite a picture. They will want to reconstruct his steps looking for patters because someone wants to know HOW to do it. Speculation is all that is needed to raise an eyebrow; the man is worth a chunk of change.He cannot keep that if he figured out a way to WIN. Could be some Texas ranger be wanting to make a name for himself? Is chuck Norris weird? JOKER. You were in the NAVY?
 belle\$star3!Phoenix, AZUnited StatesMember #108840April 1, 201133 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 2:22 amQuote: Originally posted by Todd on August 8, 2011She was called the luckiest woman in the world.But now that luck is being called into question by some who think that winning the lottery four times is more than just a coincidental spell of good fortune.Joan R. Ginther, 63, from Texas, won multiple million dollar payouts each time.First, she won \$5.4 million, then a decade later, she won \$2 million, then two years later \$3 million and finally, in the spring of 2008, she hit a \$10 million jackpot.The odds of this has been calculated at one in eighteen septillion and luck like this could only come once every quadrillion years.Harper's reporter Nathanial Rich recently wrote an article about Ginther, which questioned the validity of this 'luck' with which she attributes her multiple lottery wins to.First, he points out, Ginther is a former math professor with a PhD from Stanford University specialising in statistics.A professor at the Institute for the Study of Gambling & Commercial Gaming at the University of Nevada, Reno, told Rich, "When something this unlikely happens in a casino, you arrest 'em first and ask questions later."Although Ginther now lives in Las Vegas, she won all four of her lotteries in Texas.Three of her wins, all in two-year intervals, were by scratch-off tickets bought at the same mini mart in the town of Bishop.Rich proceeds to detail the myriad ways in which Ginther could have gamed the system — including the fact that she may have figured out the algorithm that determines where a winner is placed in each run of scratch-off tickets.He believes that after Ginther figured out the algorithm, it wouldn't be too difficult to then determine where the tickets would be shipped, as the shipping schedule is apparently fixed, and there were a few sources she could have found it out from.According to Forbes, the residents of Bishop, Texas, seem to believe God was behind it all.The Texas Lottery Commission told Rich that Ginther must have been 'born under a lucky star', and that they don't suspect foul play.Thanks to Dave for the tip.I believe that this lady honestly won this money.  Congratulations to Ms. Ginther & enjoy your money!
 Delta DrawUnited StatesMember #81841October 31, 2009856 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 2:26 amQuote: Originally posted by belle\$star3! on August 9, 2011I believe that this lady honestly won this money.  Congratulations to Ms. Ginther & enjoy your money!Oh. It was a woman? That is a very strong reason for luck coming into play. No way can a woman be smart enough to outsmart a bunch of texicans. It has to be luck boys, LADY LUCK!
 joker17United StatesMember #75356June 1, 20095345 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 3:02 amQuote: Originally posted by Delta Draw on August 9, 2011+ I think it is pure luck and a coincidence that the winner is a statistician. The only way to beat astronomical odds is luck.- But,… would not the odds for each game stand on their own? If the person plays a new hand in a new game are not the odds for that game set? The guy is on a lucky roll. Same thing happens to a gambler who goes from game to game in a casino.? Why would lotteries distribute winners to just one general area of a state? Are those not lucky areas even if a computer is used to decide them? Computers do not understand luck.~?!! I don’t know about you but septillions is way bigger than I can comprehend, therefore I like luck for an explanation. Scru Texas running up a hill; are they feeling unlucky???~++ If all of one's good luck has been given to another, I say go for it Mr. G. You did your homework and beat the odds when you figured out which bowl the goldfish were in. Random is a beautiful thing.!?~? The man knew about his game and played to win. His computer will be attacked, his phone will be tapped and he is guilty first, without any fact. They will look into his debit, credit and cash machine activity. If he has a sexy new car with GPS they can paint quite a picture. They will want to reconstruct his steps looking for patters because someone wants to know HOW to do it. Speculation is all that is needed to raise an eyebrow; the man is worth a chunk of change.He cannot keep that if he figured out a way to WIN. Could be some Texas ranger be wanting to make a name for himself? Is chuck Norris weird? JOKER. You were in the NAVY?Yes, I was in the Navy Between December, 1982...... to......December, 1986. It stands for Never Again Volunteer Yourself.....lol
 Delta DrawUnited StatesMember #81841October 31, 2009856 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 3:17 amQuote: Originally posted by joker17 on August 9, 2011Yes, I was in the Navy Between December, 1982...... to......December, 1986. It stands for Never Again Volunteer Yourself.....lolWell at least you know what you don’t want to do for the rest of your life. Thank you for your service.Let me say that I am most ashamed of that malcontent so-called patriot (tax weasel)who has very bigoted, racist and  overt islamophobic views. You are much more an American in my eyes.I think the lady is OKAY and she should keep all her money. All this speculation is a reason to take her money away.
 sully1625RingleaderMichiganUnited StatesMember #81738October 28, 200976156 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 8:56 amQuote: Originally posted by Delta Draw on August 9, 2011Oh. It was a woman? That is a very strong reason for luck coming into play. No way can a woman be smart enough to outsmart a bunch of texicans. It has to be luck boys, LADY LUCK!How could a woman understand the sum of x minus xbar divided by n-1 squared ? Finding the standard deviation on the bell curve must be a tough one. Understanding the cpk or ppk couldn't possibly come from sitting in a class room and learning it.
 jarasanHarbingerMarylandUnited StatesMember #44102July 30, 20066187 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 10:05 amQuote: Originally posted by sully16 on August 9, 2011How could a woman understand the sum of x minus xbar divided by n-1 squared ? Finding the standard deviation on the bell curve must be a tough one. Understanding the cpk or ppk couldn't possibly come from sitting in a class room and learning it.
 jimmy4164United StatesMember #93943July 10, 20102180 PostsOffline August 9, 2011, 10:29 amQuote: Originally posted by imagine on August 9, 2011No professor is named in the article.I thought it was the link for this:"RJOh made the most compelling observation that anyone should be able to comprehend at 5:27 PM yesterday!"What thread are you refrencing, was gonna have a look see, thanks.Maybe this link will help you understand why I posted what I did earlier this AM...Click HERE and note the date of this posting.

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