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$550 MILLION: Powerball jackpot now more than a half-billion dollars

Topic closed. 85 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Boney526.

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rock_nc's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg
small town USA
United States
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October 8, 2003
224 Posts
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Posted: May 16, 2013, 7:31 pm - IP Logged

I know. Just think if one person wins it that would be amazing.  Out of all the people playing that would be some extreme luck!

I Agree!

    Jill34786's avatar - Lottery-006.jpg
    Windermere, FL/Franklin, TN
    United States
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    March 1, 2007
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    Posted: May 16, 2013, 7:40 pm - IP Logged

    What do you think the new odds will be for winning the JP?  They would be far greater than 1 in 175 mill come  saturday night.

    The odds for winning PB are still the same. Just the jackpot will be that much higher Smile

      gocart1's avatar - lighthouse
      ONEONTA,NEW YORK
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      January 17, 2006
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      Posted: May 16, 2013, 7:42 pm - IP Logged

      I knew Todd would eventually finish his article and update the increase. People need to give him some slack as running this site isn't as easy as it seems.

      I Agree!

        Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

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        May 13, 2013
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        Posted: May 16, 2013, 7:57 pm - IP Logged

        What do you think the new odds will be for winning the JP?  They would be far greater than 1 in 175 mill come  saturday night.

        The odds of winning will still be 1 in 175M, that will remain the same unless they change the number of balls in the drawings. The only probability change would be the number of people who could win. Less people playing means a greater chance of one winner. Now that the number of tickets sold has jumped, the chance of there being only one winner is more unlikely.

          Avatar
          Toronto
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          January 26, 2013
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          Posted: May 16, 2013, 8:02 pm - IP Logged

          The odds of winning will still be 1 in 175M, that will remain the same unless they change the number of balls in the drawings. The only probability change would be the number of people who could win. Less people playing means a greater chance of one winner. Now that the number of tickets sold has jumped, the chance of there being only one winner is more unlikely.

          Just to nitpick slightly, that's not actually true Smile 

          Here's an example: No one plays. The chance of 1 winner is 0. 

          Now 1 player buys 1 ticket. The chance is roughly 1 in 175 million. More tickets actually meant more chances of there being "only" 1 winner in this case.

           

          I don't know at what point your statement becomes true, and I'm too lazy to calculate. But I think that the "equilibrium" is somewhere between this draw 

          and the previous draw.

            Piaceri's avatar - sarsony1
            Republic of Texas
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            Posted: May 16, 2013, 8:07 pm - IP Logged

            My guess is, it will be won on Saturday night! Hope there will be multiple winners.

            I'm hoping for one winner! People will just freak out. The entertainment factor will be out of this world.

            Green laugh

            face

            singlewinnersinglewinnersinglewinner   

              helpmewin's avatar - dandy
              u$a
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              Posted: May 16, 2013, 8:09 pm - IP Logged

              I'm hoping for one winner! People will just freak out. The entertainment factor will be out of this world.

              Green laugh

              I Agree!   1 mega 1 power ball LOL

              Let it Snow Snowman

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                NY
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                Posted: May 16, 2013, 8:29 pm - IP Logged

                Lol, theres a very small chance of it rolling again and mm will likely never get to where it did last year let alone a billion.

                The cash value is currently just over 63% of the advertised jackpot, and each ticket contributes a hair under 64 cents towards the jackpot. That means that the increase in the advertised jackpot is very nearly equal to the number of tickets sold. Assuming it gets to an even $650 million by the time of the drawing there will have been an increase of an even $300 million, and there will have been just about 300 million tickets sold.

                300 million tickets selected randomly would use about 130 million of the possible combinations, leaving about 45 million of them unplayed. That's 25% of them, so the chances of a rollover should be about 1 in 4.

                That's very small compared to the chances of a rollover when the advertised jackpot increases by $20 or even $30 million, but for such a huge jackpot I'd call it a significant chance.

                  scarchelli's avatar - 1zwkm5v
                  hinsdale, il
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                  Posted: May 16, 2013, 9:03 pm - IP Logged

                  The cash value is currently just over 63% of the advertised jackpot, and each ticket contributes a hair under 64 cents towards the jackpot. That means that the increase in the advertised jackpot is very nearly equal to the number of tickets sold. Assuming it gets to an even $650 million by the time of the drawing there will have been an increase of an even $300 million, and there will have been just about 300 million tickets sold.

                  300 million tickets selected randomly would use about 130 million of the possible combinations, leaving about 45 million of them unplayed. That's 25% of them, so the chances of a rollover should be about 1 in 4.

                  That's very small compared to the chances of a rollover when the advertised jackpot increases by $20 or even $30 million, but for such a huge jackpot I'd call it a significant chance.

                  I dont get it...how does 64 cents represent a dollar?

                    Poo Nanny's avatar - 2649029

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                    Posted: May 16, 2013, 9:05 pm - IP Logged

                    I don't think your math adds up on this one. 

                    i was of the understanding that fifty cents went to the lotto and fifty cents went to the state.  Even if it was sixty four cents per ticket towards the jackpot, a $300,000,000 increase would mean 468,750,000 tickets would have to be sold. I might be wrong though

                      Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

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                      Posted: May 16, 2013, 9:18 pm - IP Logged

                      Just to nitpick slightly, that's not actually true Smile 

                      Here's an example: No one plays. The chance of 1 winner is 0. 

                      Now 1 player buys 1 ticket. The chance is roughly 1 in 175 million. More tickets actually meant more chances of there being "only" 1 winner in this case.

                       

                      I don't know at what point your statement becomes true, and I'm too lazy to calculate. But I think that the "equilibrium" is somewhere between this draw 

                      and the previous draw.

                      Wow, that is really nitpicky.

                      Okay, yes, depending on how many tickets one person purchases or doesn't purchase at all, then the odds change. But I don't believe that was her question. I read her comment to be that the number of individual people buying a ticket changed the odds. So as it stands right now with more than zero people participating, it's still 1 in 175M per ticket. even if a billion people were to play. 

                      If only one person plays the PB and purchases only one ticket, the odds of matching all numbers is the same as if a million people each purchased one ticket.

                       

                      Then when 1 person purchases more than 1 ticket assuming that each additional ticket does not contain the exact same numbers, the odds increase from that 1 in 175M in favor of the purchaser. 

                      There I think I covered every eventuality. But if I didn't, I'm too lazy to think of all the other caveats. I think she gets the point. The number of people playing does not change the odds of winning as long as there is more than zero players, but the number of tickets purchased by multiple people and not just her increases the chances of sharing the jackpot. Phew, way to beat a dead horse. Bash

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                        Posted: May 16, 2013, 9:25 pm - IP Logged

                        Wow, that is really nitpicky.

                        Okay, yes, depending on how many tickets one person purchases or doesn't purchase at all, then the odds change. But I don't believe that was her question. I read her comment to be that the number of individual people buying a ticket changed the odds. So as it stands right now with more than zero people participating, it's still 1 in 175M per ticket. even if a billion people were to play. 

                        If only one person plays the PB and purchases only one ticket, the odds of matching all numbers is the same as if a million people each purchased one ticket.

                         

                        Then when 1 person purchases more than 1 ticket assuming that each additional ticket does not contain the exact same numbers, the odds increase from that 1 in 175M in favor of the purchaser. 

                        There I think I covered every eventuality. But if I didn't, I'm too lazy to think of all the other caveats. I think she gets the point. The number of people playing does not change the odds of winning as long as there is more than zero players, but the number of tickets purchased by multiple people and not just her increases the chances of sharing the jackpot. Phew, way to beat a dead horse. Bash

                        Sorry, I don't think you understood my point. What I was trying to say was regarding your second point, that as more and more people buy tickets, 

                        the chance of there being only 1 winner decreases isn't necessarily true. 

                         

                        As more people buy tickets, the chances of another roll over decreases. But the chance of there being a single winner can increase or decrease depending 

                        on the number of tickets already bought.

                          Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

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                          Posted: May 16, 2013, 9:30 pm - IP Logged

                          I don't think your math adds up on this one. 

                          i was of the understanding that fifty cents went to the lotto and fifty cents went to the state.  Even if it was sixty four cents per ticket towards the jackpot, a $300,000,000 increase would mean 468,750,000 tickets would have to be sold. I might be wrong though

                          Oh, that's interesting. I'd read a %age went to the state, a %age covered lottery administrative costs and then a %age went to the jackpot. Which is why I'm always shocked by a huge leap. But I could be wrong too. LOL.

                          As for 468M tickets needing to be sold, that's conceivable. You'd only need 50M people to buy 10 tickets. Factor in all the office pools and people buying a lot more tickets because of the jackpot, you don't even need 50m people. 25M zealous players could get you there easily.

                            Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

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                            Posted: May 16, 2013, 9:40 pm - IP Logged

                            Sorry, I don't think you understood my point. What I was trying to say was regarding your second point, that as more and more people buy tickets, 

                            the chance of there being only 1 winner decreases isn't necessarily true. 

                             

                            As more people buy tickets, the chances of another roll over decreases. But the chance of there being a single winner can increase or decrease depending 

                            on the number of tickets already bought.

                            Okay, sorry. You've completely lost me.

                            How does the number of tickets purchased by a greater number of people not increase the odds of more than one winner? Assuming they didn't all get together and decide to pick the same numbers. I'm not seeing how it doesn't increase regardless of anything else.

                              Poo Nanny's avatar - 2649029

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                              Posted: May 16, 2013, 9:41 pm - IP Logged

                              Oh, that's interesting. I'd read a %age went to the state, a %age covered lottery administrative costs and then a %age went to the jackpot. Which is why I'm always shocked by a huge leap. But I could be wrong too. LOL.

                              As for 468M tickets needing to be sold, that's conceivable. You'd only need 50M people to buy 10 tickets. Factor in all the office pools and people buying a lot more tickets because of the jackpot, you don't even need 50m people. 25M zealous players could get you there easily.

                              I don't doubt the number of tickets could be sold. However, my point which I forgot to add to that is that the percentage it would roll would drop dramatically.