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$450 MILLION: Powerball lottery jackpot nears record

Topic closed. 153 replies. Last post 2 years ago by bern117.

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Marilyn222's avatar - thumb 350-286546.jpg
Denver
United States
Member #117684
October 12, 2011
552 Posts
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Posted: February 10, 2015, 3:37 am - IP Logged

That line is probably for the other frenzy. Hippy

Probably for Western Union...lolLOL

White Bounce

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
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    March 24, 2001
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    Posted: February 10, 2015, 3:52 am - IP Logged

    You're not the only one, but it's just your mind playing a trick on you and no big deal.

    Didn't buy any PB tickets, but I was in 3 stores that sell lottery tickets and there was no line in any of them. There probably will be long lines at some of the state line stores selling tickets. Littlefield, Arizona would be an ideal spot for selling Arizona lottery tickets because its located on a 29 mile strip on I-15 between the Nevada and Utah state lines.

    I haven't brought any tickets either.  I like to do a little workout before I buy my tickets which is usually about 9:30 PM on drawing night.  If the terminals are down because of bad weather or some other reason then I usually miss out and save some money.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

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      WV
      United States
      Member #107175
      March 2, 2011
      100 Posts
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      Posted: February 10, 2015, 4:44 am - IP Logged

      Well, it would be 42% of combinations played IF every ticket was a unique combination. We know this is not the case. There are many duplicates, and the more tickets sold the more duplicates there will be. For 73 million tickets sold we would expect a little more than 13 million duplicates. For the PB record jackpot in 2013 only 80% combinations were sold, despite more than 232 million tickets purchased. Assuming random selection, to cover every combination it would require about a billion tickets.

      Anyway, based on my own sales estimate (which is higher than MUSL's forecast at the moment), Wednesday's drawing will likely have about a 45-50% chance of being hit. Not being hit and seeing higher sales would put us into the 97th percentile, which means that less than 3% of the time the game continues rolling over. However, this is not to be confused with the probability of a specific drawing rolling over.

      I am in for the next draw (QP) so good luck everyone Smile

      For the PB record when there were 232 million tickets purchased there were 80% of the combinations played. How many more tickets do you figure would have needed to be purchased to cover the other the other 20% that were not played ?

        Original Bey's avatar - Lottery-022.jpg

        Bahamas
        Member #133462
        September 30, 2012
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        Posted: February 10, 2015, 7:10 am - IP Logged

        In 5  hours it will be 500m!!!

        "Everything works  ONCE!"

          Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

          United States
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          May 13, 2013
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          Posted: February 10, 2015, 7:39 am - IP Logged

          Anybody at all considering annuity as the way to go here? Before I'm jumped on, didn't say I was...

          Maybe. But only if I found out that I'd be able to sell the 29 remaining annuity payments to JG Wentworth or Peachtree and get more than the current cash value. 

            LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
            Happyland
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            September 1, 2013
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            Posted: February 10, 2015, 8:11 am - IP Logged

            For the PB record when there were 232 million tickets purchased there were 80% of the combinations played. How many more tickets do you figure would have needed to be purchased to cover the other the other 20% that were not played ?

            As I said, the more tickets purchased the more duplicates there are.

            From a theoretical standpoint:

            • For 73 million played, we would expect around 13 million duplicates, or 59.7 million uniques.
            • For 232 million played, we would expect around 103.59 million duplicates, or 128.67 million uniques. The actual number of duplicates for the 2013 record PB jackpot was about 92 million (a difference of about 10 million), which left 140 million uniques. So player selection does skew the numbers.
            • For 464 million played, we would expect around 272 million duplicates, or 160 million uniques.
            • For 928 million played, we would expect around 753.6 million duplicates, or 174.3 milllion uniques. Still not all of them!

            Even if you add a 10 million margin of error due to player choice it would take close to a billion tickets to cover all possible combinations. From the random selection standpoint, to cover the remaining 20% of combinations would basically be the difference between 232 million and 1 billion. We're talking random picks here, think about how difficult it would be for a RNG to choose literally every combination. In the real world, as discussed above, player patterns actually skew those calculations.

            My guess as to cover the remaining combinations with player choice factored would be around 800 million tickets total, or a difference of 568 million. This assumes that logistics prevent Warren Buffett from purchasing every combination manually Smile

            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

            2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

              Marilyn222's avatar - thumb 350-286546.jpg
              Denver
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              Posted: February 10, 2015, 8:16 am - IP Logged

              Probably for Western Union...lolLOL

              ...not for someone else...hehehePoke

              White Bounce

                IPlayWeekly's avatar - avatarmoney
                Columbus, Ohio
                United States
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                June 5, 2012
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                Posted: February 10, 2015, 9:05 am - IP Logged

                There's PB frenzy at my job.  I was just handed a PB betslip by my coworker... Nobody knows how much I play.  I generally play 2 PB lines but I'll play 4 lines total for tomorrow, my own numbers.

                  Gleno's avatar - Lottery-001.jpg
                  New Jersey
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                  September 25, 2009
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                  Posted: February 10, 2015, 10:34 am - IP Logged

                  IF it rolls over again maybe tempted to just pass it up but also  know that the thrill of playing comes when these jackpots get huge.

                  Coffee

                    Gleno's avatar - Lottery-001.jpg
                    New Jersey
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                    Posted: February 10, 2015, 10:45 am - IP Logged

                    No harm in getting ticket(s) with an annuity option and some for the cash option.

                    If you won with the annuity, you be in the money for the long run.

                    Wink

                      LottoLucy's avatar - hereslucy header.jpg

                      United States
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                      Posted: February 10, 2015, 12:33 pm - IP Logged

                      Anybody at all considering annuity as the way to go here? Before I'm jumped on, didn't say I was...

                      Not for one this huge.  I am more likely to consider the annuity option on a smaller jackpot when the graduated payments would be more than taking out 4% a year from a lump sum.  I base the 4% figure on advice that some experts give to only take 4% a year so you never run out of money.

                      I would never fault anyone for taking the annuity.  Some people just know themselves well and realize that they are not good with money or lack the will power not to spend it all in the first couple of years.  Others know they have trouble saying no to family and friends.  For them the annuity might be a smart move.

                       

                      Good Luck!

                      Lotto Lucy

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                        Simpsonville
                        United States
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                        January 22, 2015
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                        Posted: February 10, 2015, 12:42 pm - IP Logged

                        Up to $485 million now!!

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                          California
                          United States
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                          April 7, 2013
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                          Posted: February 10, 2015, 12:51 pm - IP Logged

                          Up to $485 million now!!

                          Yessss!

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                            Baton Rouge, LA
                            United States
                            Member #4602
                            May 7, 2004
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                            Posted: February 10, 2015, 1:20 pm - IP Logged

                            Up to $485 million now!!

                            The actual jackpot will probably be more than that! Come on half billion!

                            I've got 2 tickets of my own and 3 in a lottery club, maybe we'll finally get lucky.

                            Prisoner Six

                            "I am not a number, I am a free man!"

                              Original Bey's avatar - Lottery-022.jpg

                              Bahamas
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                              September 30, 2012
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                              Posted: February 10, 2015, 1:20 pm - IP Logged

                              $485m. Seriously? I wonder if we'll see a second bump tomorrow. If not I suspect it will roll over. This is not enough to ignite a frenzy. Casual players like to wait for the last minute

                              "Everything works  ONCE!"

                                 
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