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$450 MILLION: Powerball sales bonanza sparks early jackpot increase

Topic closed. 89 replies. Last post 11 months ago by MaximumMillions.

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Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
Indiana
United States
Member #48725
January 7, 2007
1953 Posts
Offline
Posted: January 5, 2016, 4:12 pm - IP Logged

MUSL estimates are all too often portrayed as "fact" by participating lotteries in promotional ads, and don't reflect reality. The #3 jackpot won in Florida a few years ago was widely advertised as $600 million annuity, and yet only paid out $590 million annuity. Deceptive.

Sure, the FL winner still made out well, but many players who didn't win, played in large part, due to seeing the $600 million advertised number, which turned out be a faulty estimate - again, to reiterate, widely advertised, in effect, as fact, by many participating lotteries.

Rambling on, but point is that a $50 million jackpot estimate jump seems pretty steep. Don't put too much stock in that being real. My rule of thumb, since the Florida incident, is 1/2 of a jump is probably legit. So $425 million annuity (50 / 2) is probably a safe estimate. Good luck to all who play.

I don't believe they were being "deceptive" advertising a $600m jackpot. It is in fact an estimate after all. They can't know beforehand the exact amount the jackpot will be because there are too many factors. At super high jackpot levels, it is to be expected that their estimates have a greater degree of variance as opposed to lower jackpot levels. Sometimes their estimates are higher, sometimes they're lower. I'd say just a $10m difference at those levels is actually pretty close. Surely had they advertised a $600m jackpot, and then come draw time, the jackpot was actually $610m, you wouldn't be calling them deceptive.

Gonna win.Big Smile

    Avatar
    Idaho
    United States
    Member #76087
    June 18, 2009
    859 Posts
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    Posted: January 5, 2016, 4:13 pm - IP Logged

    I just bought my line for the next draw from an Albertson's vending machine.  So if someone in Boise wins from there, you'll know it's me.  Goof

    Hey now, HoLeeKau, that means I'll have to buy one from Albertsons too.  Just to deepen the mystery.  Wink

    La Maga Della Spaziometria

      HoLeeKau's avatar - YheaShea
      Idaho
      United States
      Member #94283
      July 17, 2010
      2284 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: January 5, 2016, 4:17 pm - IP Logged

      Hey now, HoLeeKau, that means I'll have to buy one from Albertsons too.  Just to deepen the mystery.  Wink

      LOL  Good luck, GG!  Hope it comes to Boise again.  It's been too long.

        Bilionario's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
        New Member

        Namibia
        Member #171156
        January 1, 2016
        7 Posts
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        Posted: January 5, 2016, 4:18 pm - IP Logged

        Good Luck to us!  Holding out for a LP winner!

        ...watch this space.

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          Idaho
          United States
          Member #76087
          June 18, 2009
          859 Posts
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          Posted: January 5, 2016, 4:19 pm - IP Logged

          LOL  Good luck, GG!  Hope it comes to Boise again.  It's been too long.

          Yes, it's been awhile, huh.  Good luck to you too, man Thumbs Up

          La Maga Della Spaziometria

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            NEW YORK
            United States
            Member #90535
            April 29, 2010
            11974 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: January 5, 2016, 4:25 pm - IP Logged

            46-53-55-56-63 + 22
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            18-22-25-26-49 + 16
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            10-38-42-51-58 + 22
            08-19-26-58-67 + 21

            US Flag

            PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

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              New Member

              United States
              Member #96495
              August 30, 2010
              6 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: January 5, 2016, 4:26 pm - IP Logged

              Dreaming BIG!!!!

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19816 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: January 5, 2016, 4:28 pm - IP Logged

                Now that PB jackpot is $450M I've decided to buy 10 PB tickets with no guarantee instead of 15 MM tickets with every megaball and a guarantee of a $1 win.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       


                  United States
                  Member #108380
                  March 25, 2011
                  505 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: January 5, 2016, 5:09 pm - IP Logged

                  46-53-55-56-63 + 22
                  15-34-47-56-58 + 05
                  04-16-58-65-68 + 19
                  03-04-21-55-60 + 07
                  13-17-22-28-63 + 08
                  14-18-31-33-54 + 10
                  09-19-44-50-59 + 22
                  09-15-29-31-44 + 11
                  18-44-45-58-65 + 25
                  06-15-30-32-39 + 09
                  03-04-31-37-44 + 26
                  24-44-46-47-53 + 02
                  15-21-24-37-46 + 12
                  03-27-35-46-65 + 14
                  16-19-27-40-46 + 18
                  05-11-30-38-39 + 02
                  18-22-25-26-49 + 16
                  36-49-63-64-66 + 14
                  01-12-18-21-29 + 22
                  01-06-29-42-53 + 11
                  07-14-38-49-69 + 15
                  01-12-21-22-52 + 05
                  17-35-38-64-69 + 20
                  07-41-58-65-67 + 09
                  07-13-16-39-56 + 14
                  17-30-45-53-56 + 19
                  10-19-50-56-58 + 01
                  02-12-16-57-61 + 25
                  06-35-40-41-63 + 07
                  04-20-42-62-67 + 01
                  28-30-40-43-45 + 08
                  09-14-24-43-51 + 09
                  20-34-38-54-62 + 01
                  05-39-48-62-68 + 12
                  15-25-32-34-35 + 20
                  09-22-50-62-67 + 26
                  03-13-22-31-66 + 05
                  17-18-48-60-67 + 09
                  13-35-40-56-68 + 15
                  06-35-50-55-62 + 05
                  12-21-36-53-57 + 09
                  13-27-36-59-64 + 01
                  16-34-40-50-54 + 13
                  02-08-11-13-14 + 02
                  30-40-52-65-68 + 10
                  09-10-20-31-62 + 06
                  01-21-46-61-67 + 06
                  23-25-30-62-68 + 15
                  10-38-42-51-58 + 22
                  08-19-26-58-67 + 21

                  just went out and bought the exact same numbers so you and i can share the jackpot.

                    whiteballz's avatar - Lottery-015.jpg
                    Nutley, New Jersey
                    United States
                    Member #131058
                    August 1, 2012
                    875 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 5, 2016, 5:14 pm - IP Logged

                    Gotta be in it to win it.

                    .

                      Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

                      United States
                      Member #142499
                      May 13, 2013
                      1181 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: January 5, 2016, 5:24 pm - IP Logged

                      Dear God:

                      I don't go to strip clubs with wads of cash left in unlocked cars; I'm not an alcoholic, drug addict or recovering addict of any kind; I've never been involved in an armed robbery; I don't have a boyfriend with a condiment as a nickname; I've never, nor will I ever, buy 400 pairs of the same pants.

                      I know I'm not the kind of person to have or do any of these things, even so, could you please let me win this one?

                        LottoLucy's avatar - hereslucy header.jpg

                        United States
                        Member #131594
                        August 14, 2012
                        171 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: January 5, 2016, 5:44 pm - IP Logged

                        OK, I'm weak.  I have no will power.  I caved.

                        I have not bought a powerball ticket since the matrix change.  I said that I would only play when it was $500 million or more.  But I have had a bad day and when my husband very nicely offered to stop and pick me up some tickets I said yes.

                        so, I may be weak and have no will power.  I may have caved.  But...

                         

                        I'M IN! 

                        Lotto Lucy

                          Get paid's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
                          texas
                          United States
                          Member #152324
                          February 11, 2014
                          168 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: January 5, 2016, 5:52 pm - IP Logged

                          Its her money,it doesn,t help me one way or the other.I,m going to buy me a powerball ticket an see if the lottery gods will bless me.I don,t care what marie does with her money.three dollars an a dream.

                            Get paid's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
                            texas
                            United States
                            Member #152324
                            February 11, 2014
                            168 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: January 5, 2016, 5:55 pm - IP Logged

                            Sorry wrong tread,this is about marie.

                              HoLeeKau's avatar - YheaShea
                              Idaho
                              United States
                              Member #94283
                              July 17, 2010
                              2284 Posts
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                              Posted: January 5, 2016, 6:05 pm - IP Logged

                              Well, Business Insider has declared that it's not worth buying a ticket.  I wonder if I can take my ticket back for a refund before the drawing?

                              "Consider the expected value

                              When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at is "expected value." The expected value of a randomly decided process is found by taking all of the possible outcomes of the process, multiplying each outcome by its probability, and adding all of these numbers up. This gives us a long-run average value for our random process.

                              Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes. If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me."

                              http://news.yahoo.com/did-math-450-million-powerball-214235140.html?nf=1