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# \$450 MILLION: Powerball sales bonanza sparks early jackpot increase

Topic closed. 89 replies. Last post 11 months ago by MaximumMillions.

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Chief Bottle Washer
New Jersey
United States
Member #1
May 31, 2000
23261 Posts
Online
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

Well, Business Insider has declared that it's not worth buying a ticket.  I wonder if I can take my ticket back for a refund before the drawing?

"Consider the expected value

When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at is "expected value." The expected value of a randomly decided process is found by taking all of the possible outcomes of the process, multiplying each outcome by its probability, and adding all of these numbers up. This gives us a long-run average value for our random process.

Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes. If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me."

http://news.yahoo.com/did-math-450-million-powerball-214235140.html?nf=1

You wonder if you can get a refund on a lottery ticket?  Are you serious?  Hopefully you were kidding.

It's not surprising to see a mainstream news source claiming lotteries are bad bets.  In case you haven't noticed, every mainstream news source says playing ANY lottery game is stupid.

Tell that to the guy who wins.

Also, I wasn't aware that spending \$2 on a lottery ticket was such a big deal to the folks at Business Insider.  The reporter probably spent double that amount on their last cup of coffee.  Funny how they spend all that time obsessing over a \$2 lottery ticket.  Pretty dumb.

Check the State Lottery Report Card

Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
Help eliminate computerized drawings!

PA
United States
Member #66141
October 16, 2008
1672 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 6:29 pm - IP Logged

My new cottage will be on 7.4 acres and only \$995,000!

dpoly1 - Playing the lottery to save the jobs of those that build, transport, sell & maintain luxury items! -

Eschew Poverty ........... Vote Conservative!

NEW YORK
United States
Member #90535
April 29, 2010
11978 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 6:42 pm - IP Logged

You wonder if you can get a refund on a lottery ticket?  Are you serious?  Hopefully you were kidding.

It's not surprising to see a mainstream news source claiming lotteries are bad bets.  In case you haven't noticed, every mainstream news source says playing ANY lottery game is stupid.

Tell that to the guy who wins.

Also, I wasn't aware that spending \$2 on a lottery ticket was such a big deal to the folks at Business Insider.  The reporter probably spent double that amount on their last cup of coffee.  Funny how they spend all that time obsessing over a \$2 lottery ticket.  Pretty dumb.

0 IN 292,201,338 VERSUS 1 IN 292,201,338 TO WIN THE JACKPOT.

"I play only to win the big jackpot, regardless of the odds. I only buy a ticket or two. There is not much difference between 1 or 100 in 292,201,338 but there is a huge difference between those odds and 0 in 292,201,338. In other words not much reason to buy several tickets, just one." RAY

PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

NEW YORK
United States
Member #90535
April 29, 2010
11978 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 6:48 pm - IP Logged

01-03-30-55-62 / 03
07-24-32-38-59 / 25
24-28-31-32-34 / 20
04-39-40-41-48 / 13
17-21-38-39-64 / 11
03-23-28-40-54 / 09
09-10-12-36-37 / 26
17-20-21-48-57 / 20
01-21-50-52-62 / 12
04-16-29-46-49 / 12
17-21-25-39-45 / 01
04-22-59-66-69 / 06
13-32-45-46-47 / 12
34-35-58-59-69 / 13
23-32-41-48-61 / 06
05-15-21-39-59 / 15
01-04-16-58-69 / 04
11-15-18-57-68 / 21
05-23-48-64-68 / 16
03-16-39-46-54 / 06
14-20-28-60-66 / 26
07-08-30-60-63 / 18
10-13-25-32-33 / 10
08-11-15-25-35 / 05
24-26-30-65-68 / 19
03-17-32-52-56 / 06
12-22-31-35-38 / 10
28-33-34-45-51 / 19
06-30-44-58-62 / 20
04-07-20-30-31 / 23
34-39-44-53-58 / 16
25-27-33-45-48 / 18
07-24-32-36-49 / 13
09-23-34-62-64 / 08
19-28-36-43-61 / 19
11-12-14-40-63 / 19
27-35-45-49-65 / 16
42-60-62-63-67 / 04
05-35-49-63-67 / 19
13-15-21-49-67 / 17
38-45-47-58-61 / 03
10-18-41-68-69 / 22
01-05-19-21-46 / 11
08-09-12-33-58 / 11
03-19-21-29-67 / 26
05-11-21-44-45 / 14
20-21-41-50-55 / 12
08-17-25-37-60 / 01
30-34-43-54-58 / 06
03-35-46-54-66 / 18

PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

United States
Member #122691
February 6, 2012
330 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 7:18 pm - IP Logged

Wouldn't that be something if this thing hit a billion dollars or more. That would be kind of crazy to see. As always I would happily take a million and quietly disappear.

United States
Member #121745
January 16, 2012
4788 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 7:19 pm - IP Logged

My heroic efforts and sob story to get my tickets in DC.

-Left work 30 minutes early ....on the coldest day of the year...so I could make it to a convenience store (closes at 6 pm) by the metro.

-This meant I skipped my bus...2 blocks from work... that would take me directly to my neighborhood.

-Got my tickets for 4 drawings and went downstairs to the metro. Missed the train by 10 seconds that would take me to the Pentagon where I could take a bus home.

-Ran up and out of metro to catch another bus across the street  that also goes to my neighborhood. Waited 20 minutes and the bus zipped by and failed to stop for any of us.

-Ran back downstairs to metro and caught a train with a second the spare.

-Got off at the Pentagon to catch my bus and two were there. Ended up on the one where the driver went on a 15 minute break while the other bus passed us by.

Yes...I deserve to win. Lol

J'aime La France.

Happyland
United States
Member #146344
September 1, 2013
1129 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 7:23 pm - IP Logged

MUSL estimates are all too often portrayed as "fact" by participating lotteries in promotional ads, and don't reflect reality. The #3 jackpot won in Florida a few years ago was widely advertised as \$600 million annuity, and yet only paid out \$590 million annuity. Deceptive.

Sure, the FL winner still made out well, but many players who didn't win, played in large part, due to seeing the \$600 million advertised number, which turned out be a faulty estimate - again, to reiterate, widely advertised, in effect, as fact, by many participating lotteries.

Rambling on, but point is that a \$50 million jackpot estimate jump seems pretty steep. Don't put too much stock in that being real. My rule of thumb, since the Florida incident, is 1/2 of a jump is probably legit. So \$425 million annuity (50 / 2) is probably a safe estimate. Good luck to all who play.

https://www.lotterypost.com/news/297783/4417127

See my post from 2 days ago. They underestimated sales for the last draw and hence this coming draw. It seems like a big leap but it's really not considering they were under-advertising to begin with. Of course they would rather "raise" the jackpot to drum up more excitement than advertise it at proper levels from the start.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win(\$)/Total Wager(\$) - 1

United States
Member #131594
August 14, 2012
171 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 7:27 pm - IP Logged

My heroic efforts and sob story to get my tickets in DC.

-Left work 30 minutes early ....on the coldest day of the year...so I could make it to a convenience store (closes at 6 pm) by the metro.

-This meant I skipped my bus...2 blocks from work... that would take me directly to my neighborhood.

-Got my tickets for 4 drawings and went downstairs to the metro. Missed the train by 10 seconds that would take me to the Pentagon where I could take a bus home.

-Ran up and out of metro to catch another bus across the street  that also goes to my neighborhood. Waited 20 minutes and the bus zipped by and failed to stop for any of us.

-Ran back downstairs to metro and caught a train with a second the spare.

-Got off at the Pentagon to catch my bus and two were there. Ended up on the one where the driver went on a 15 minute break while the other bus passed us by.

Yes...I deserve to win. Lol

You certainly worked for your ticket!

Ever think about taking the red line over to Maryland where you can claim your win anonymously?

Good Luck!

Lotto Lucy

Happyland
United States
Member #146344
September 1, 2013
1129 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 7:28 pm - IP Logged

You wonder if you can get a refund on a lottery ticket?  Are you serious?  Hopefully you were kidding.

It's not surprising to see a mainstream news source claiming lotteries are bad bets.  In case you haven't noticed, every mainstream news source says playing ANY lottery game is stupid.

Tell that to the guy who wins.

Also, I wasn't aware that spending \$2 on a lottery ticket was such a big deal to the folks at Business Insider.  The reporter probably spent double that amount on their last cup of coffee.  Funny how they spend all that time obsessing over a \$2 lottery ticket.  Pretty dumb.

The thing about "experts" is that they will always jump on the opportunity to come out and be right about something, no matter how meaningless that something is.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win(\$)/Total Wager(\$) - 1

United States
Member #121745
January 16, 2012
4788 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 7:33 pm - IP Logged

You certainly worked for your ticket!

Ever think about taking the red line over to Maryland where you can claim your win anonymously?

Good Luck!

Yea...people have mentioned that to me but I work long hours in NW DC and live in nova. Some weekend though I need to do this. I don't live near a metro so waiting on my bus back into va on a weekend would take forever. But it would be a perfect way to win.

I could use Todd's lottery places app. in MD.

Todd... I would like a refund if I do not win also. Lol

J'aime La France.

Texas
United States
Member #55889
October 23, 2007
5593 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 8:22 pm - IP Logged

I'm volunteering as guinea pig to win a single ticket winner.

SINGLEWINNERSINGLEWINNERSINGLEWINNER

If I don't win it I hope one of us Texan LP members win it.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR \$2)

Texas
United States
Member #55889
October 23, 2007
5593 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 8:26 pm - IP Logged

OK, I'm weak.  I have no will power.  I caved.

I have not bought a powerball ticket since the matrix change.  I said that I would only play when it was \$500 million or more.  But I have had a bad day and when my husband very nicely offered to stop and pick me up some tickets I said yes.

so, I may be weak and have no will power.  I may have caved.  But...

I'M IN!

Impossible to have a chance unless you are in!

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR \$2)

United States
Member #121745
January 16, 2012
4788 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 8:38 pm - IP Logged

So if this thing rolls, I am assuming no more than 4 more drawings...or I will have to leave work early to get tickets. I think we might be at 750 million or more in 4 more drawings??? Then I can go back to not playing again. Lol

J'aime La France.

Arizona
United States
Member #165073
March 24, 2015
220 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 8:48 pm - IP Logged

Well, Business Insider has declared that it's not worth buying a ticket.  I wonder if I can take my ticket back for a refund before the drawing?

"Consider the expected value

When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at is "expected value." The expected value of a randomly decided process is found by taking all of the possible outcomes of the process, multiplying each outcome by its probability, and adding all of these numbers up. This gives us a long-run average value for our random process.

Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes. If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me."

http://news.yahoo.com/did-math-450-million-powerball-214235140.html?nf=1

If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me.

Note that with probabilities as small as the ones in the lottery, the "long run" over which things average out is much longer than any one player's lifetime.

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7308 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2016, 8:52 pm - IP Logged

The thing about "experts" is that they will always jump on the opportunity to come out and be right about something, no matter how meaningless that something is.

Yep, every time a jackpot gets into the "must win" range, the so called experts come out of the woodwork. The NFL playoffs are just starting, the college football final is next week, the NBA and college basketball are mid season, and the presidential primaries are over a month away so it's a slow news day/week/month and the PB jackpot is the news.

The "experts" either tell us why buying a ticket is a bad idea or will tell us how to win. For those of us that discuss lottery stuff, it's simple; if a person can't afford to buy a ticket, it's a bad idea and if we want a chance to win, we buy a ticket(s).

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