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$450 MILLION: Powerball sales bonanza sparks early jackpot increase

Topic closed. 89 replies. Last post 11 months ago by MaximumMillions.

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dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
Oklahoma
United States
Member #82391
November 12, 2009
6290 Posts
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Posted: January 6, 2016, 10:25 am - IP Logged

$450 Million Woo Hoo!!!!! White BounceDanceBanana

I Love Pink & Green 1908

    HoLeeKau's avatar - YheaShea
    Idaho
    United States
    Member #94283
    July 17, 2010
    2284 Posts
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    Posted: January 6, 2016, 11:05 am - IP Logged

    after reading how worthless my $2 ticket was,  i tossed it out the window. thanks math guys!

    Yeah, I'm embarrassed to even be seen with a ticket.  I feel like such a dupe!

      mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
      JACKPOT HUNTER

      United States
      Member #141034
      April 2, 2013
      1408 Posts
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      Posted: January 6, 2016, 11:51 am - IP Logged

      White BounceThis sucker keeps on growing. Up to half a billy{$500M} Nice!!!.White Bounce

      Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

      Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

        MaximumMillions's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg

        Germany
        Member #164603
        March 8, 2015
        603 Posts
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        Posted: January 6, 2016, 12:40 pm - IP Logged

        White BounceThis sucker keeps on growing. Up to half a billy{$500M} Nice!!!.White Bounce

        Just saw it.

        Ready for a billion!

          Avatar
          NY
          United States
          Member #23835
          October 16, 2005
          3474 Posts
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          Posted: January 6, 2016, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

          MUSL estimates are all too often portrayed as "fact" by participating lotteries in promotional ads, and don't reflect reality. The #3 jackpot won in Florida a few years ago was widely advertised as $600 million annuity, and yet only paid out $590 million annuity. Deceptive.

          Sure, the FL winner still made out well, but many players who didn't win, played in large part, due to seeing the $600 million advertised number, which turned out be a faulty estimate - again, to reiterate, widely advertised, in effect, as fact, by many participating lotteries.

          Rambling on, but point is that a $50 million jackpot estimate jump seems pretty steep. Don't put too much stock in that being real. My rule of thumb, since the Florida incident, is 1/2 of a jump is probably legit. So $425 million annuity (50 / 2) is probably a safe estimate. Good luck to all who play.

          It's been a long time since I paid attention to such details, but I thought they honor the advertised annuity. There's extremely little risk in doing so, because they generally make conservative estimates, and almost nobody takes the annuity. I'd guess that there's less than a 10% chance of having to honor the annuity value,  and perhaps a 10% chance of not  having enough to fund the annuity if somebody takes it. That's a 1 in 1000 chance of losing  the few million it would take to fund th annuity. That's not much risk if it means the difference between advertising  590 or 600.

          As for what happens if it rolls again, it's a certainty that we'll see a new annuity record. Since this run is currently expected to result in an increase of 166 million it seems very likely that  the next one will pass 700, but it will need to reach about 775 to set a cash record. I can't imagine there's a meaningful risk in advertising anything less than 650 as the starting figure.

            Avatar
            Wyomissing, PA
            United States
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            November 15, 2014
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            Posted: January 6, 2016, 3:29 pm - IP Logged

            It's been a long time since I paid attention to such details, but I thought they honor the advertised annuity. There's extremely little risk in doing so, because they generally make conservative estimates, and almost nobody takes the annuity. I'd guess that there's less than a 10% chance of having to honor the annuity value,  and perhaps a 10% chance of not  having enough to fund the annuity if somebody takes it. That's a 1 in 1000 chance of losing  the few million it would take to fund th annuity. That's not much risk if it means the difference between advertising  590 or 600.

            As for what happens if it rolls again, it's a certainty that we'll see a new annuity record. Since this run is currently expected to result in an increase of 166 million it seems very likely that  the next one will pass 700, but it will need to reach about 775 to set a cash record. I can't imagine there's a meaningful risk in advertising anything less than 650 as the starting figure.

            I too was surprised when I read the actual payout was less than advertised. In contrast, many state lotteries do and will pay out the widely advertised jackpot amount for their in-state games. PA Lottery is very good about paying what's advertised regardless of actual sales; favoring the player.

            Many poo poo the issue, but many players bought tickets for that 2013 Powerball drawing in large part to the annuity jackpot being touted as $600 million, which wasn't true.

            Sure, the vast, vast majority of players didn't notice / don't care, but some do. It's always in the back of my mind when I see Powerball estimates - can't trust it, and by extension, the organization, MUSL, that runs Powerball. Sure, I still play PB on occasion, but very rarely; sitting this drawing out.

              Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

              United States
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              May 13, 2013
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              Posted: January 6, 2016, 8:53 pm - IP Logged

              "but I thought they honor the advertised annuity". Thinking one thing while the reality is something different. Yeah, there's a big surprise. 

                Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

                United States
                Member #142499
                May 13, 2013
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                Posted: January 6, 2016, 9:15 pm - IP Logged

                I too was surprised when I read the actual payout was less than advertised. In contrast, many state lotteries do and will pay out the widely advertised jackpot amount for their in-state games. PA Lottery is very good about paying what's advertised regardless of actual sales; favoring the player.

                Many poo poo the issue, but many players bought tickets for that 2013 Powerball drawing in large part to the annuity jackpot being touted as $600 million, which wasn't true.

                Sure, the vast, vast majority of players didn't notice / don't care, but some do. It's always in the back of my mind when I see Powerball estimates - can't trust it, and by extension, the organization, MUSL, that runs Powerball. Sure, I still play PB on occasion, but very rarely; sitting this drawing out.

                They did it to that SC guy too. Advertised JP was $400 million and they paid out $399.4. They were off by almost $10 million in Gloria's case and so in many ways it makes sense for them not to try to bridge that shortfall. $600,000 doesn't seem that much in the grand scheme of things, and players do want that number to be correct. Or if it's off, they want it off in their benefit.

                But I get the other side. The lotteries have accounting regulations to follow and bridging the gap would mean funds would have to be diverted from somewhere else. Business-wise, it's the smart and responsible thing to do, but PR-wise, not so much. Those who do keep track of these things might hope the numbers are spot on or greater than advertised, not less. People are weird about numbers. It's the reason they'll buy something for $21.99 but not for $22.00. 

                So I get what you're saying. The certainty is no longer there. It might seem ridiculous because it's still so much money, but since it's been shown that what's advertised might be less than the actual amount, that fact stays with you. If it rolls again, will you play for Saturday?

                I might wake up early and go running.  I might also wake up and win the lottery.

                The odds are about the same.

                  LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                  Happyland
                  United States
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                  September 1, 2013
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                  Posted: January 7, 2016, 12:08 am - IP Logged

                  "but I thought they honor the advertised annuity". Thinking one thing while the reality is something different. Yeah, there's a big surprise. 

                  Annuity is based off the cash and it can fluctuate depending on the cost of financing the prize. I believe MUSL uses the rate for the following business day.

                  The exact prize amount is almost never the same as the advertised....closely estimated but rarely exact. The most accurate figure to look at is the lump sum

                  If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                  If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                  2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                  P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19816 Posts
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                    Posted: January 8, 2016, 12:39 am - IP Logged

                    Now that PB jackpot is $450M I've decided to buy 10 PB tickets with no guarantee instead of 15 MM tickets with every megaball and a guarantee of a $1 win.

                    With 26 PB tickets I can guarantee a $4 win.  $15 of MM tickets guarantees a $1 win/$52 of PB tickets guarantees a $4 win, maybe PB has a better deal. Wink

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      Avatar

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                      January 5, 2016
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                      Posted: January 8, 2016, 7:22 am - IP Logged

                      That's Small, what you want is something that will melt the eyeballs,something like this!!

                      Looks like a helluva monster home to clean. You will most certainly need a staff.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
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                        Posted: January 8, 2016, 7:59 pm - IP Logged

                        With 26 PB tickets I can guarantee a $4 win.  $15 of MM tickets guarantees a $1 win/$52 of PB tickets guarantees a $4 win, maybe PB has a better deal. Wink

                        System players who didn't plan ahead and store up some play slips may be out of luck when they go to get some, the places I went didn't have any.  Quick picks may be their only choice.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          ArizonaDream's avatar - Lottery-009.jpg

                          United States
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                          October 10, 2015
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                          Posted: January 8, 2016, 9:05 pm - IP Logged

                          System players who didn't plan ahead and store up some play slips may be out of luck when they go to get some, the places I went didn't have any.  Quick picks may be their only choice.

                          Around here, the clerk can manually enter your choosen numbers.  Happened to me once when they didn't have any lotto slips. It was a slow day and I only had one set of numbers, they might have balked if I had mulple sets to enter or a long line behind me.

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
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                            Posted: January 9, 2016, 2:32 am - IP Logged

                            Around here, the clerk can manually enter your choosen numbers.  Happened to me once when they didn't have any lotto slips. It was a slow day and I only had one set of numbers, they might have balked if I had mulple sets to enter or a long line behind me.

                            Where I buy tickets, lottery isn't their main business and there are never any more than a couple of clerks so someone is almost always waiting to be served.  Some retailers require players to make out play slips or buy quick picks because of the time it takes otherwise. 

                            Since PB tickets can't be canceled, clerks don't want the responsibility of punching in the wrong numbers and having to buy the tickets themselves.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              MaximumMillions's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg

                              Germany
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                              March 8, 2015
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                              Posted: January 9, 2016, 11:00 am - IP Logged

                              Where I buy tickets, lottery isn't their main business and there are never any more than a couple of clerks so someone is almost always waiting to be served.  Some retailers require players to make out play slips or buy quick picks because of the time it takes otherwise. 

                              Since PB tickets can't be canceled, clerks don't want the responsibility of punching in the wrong numbers and having to buy the tickets themselves.

                              I imagine states where you can buy tickets at the gas pump are now a great alternative? The average novice player probably doesn't know how to figure it out and the shortened wait time would be worth the 1$ transaction fee.