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$500 MILLION: Powerball jackpot explodes in ticket-buying frenzy

Topic closed. 86 replies. Last post 11 months ago by LottoMetro.

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Upacreek
United States
Member #136306
December 8, 2012
429 Posts
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Posted: January 6, 2016, 7:47 pm - IP Logged

Sales are on fire (over $100 million in excess of my estimate), cash starting at around $413 million if no winner tonight.

Believe it or not, ~60% chance no winner. 100% chance I am not participating tonight. LOL

That's nuts... 60%

What the chance (typically) when the jackpot is a measly 40 or 50 million... I'm surprised at how often it gets hit then

-RC

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    Republic of Texas
    United States
    Member #57557
    January 9, 2008
    1095 Posts
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    Posted: January 6, 2016, 8:06 pm - IP Logged

     Found a lottery machine that dispenses all the games including scratch offs, a.k.a "refrigerators"  in a chain drug store.

    Must have been dinner time because there were few people in the store at 4:50 PM  and no line at the machine. Banana

    If a lottery pool wins won't be surprised if there will be difficulties that arise, as is often seen in the past. Dead

    Anyone have any idea how many lottery pools were formed for this drawings? What?

    How many pool organizer's provide its members with a a copy of the pool tickets before the drawing? Evil Uhh

    We should have a winner somewhere with all the tickets being sold but if there is no winner tonight, it will be another week

    of Power Ball Craze in the Media. Jester Laugh

    Good Luck LP Players

    Lep

    I actually have 2 lottery pools I run at the office when the cash option reaches $100m. One is entire office, the other just our group (supervisor & 4 reports). For the bigger pool, we have 19 regulars and two irregular players out of about 30. We have 4 who never play for religious or other reasons and they are excluded from the email I send out before each drawing. I give a minimum 24 hours, use the same wording each time saying it is up to you to join & what the deadlines are. I also keep a bank for those who want to 'prepay' & several who work from home. I also give everyone's bank balance, and note who is short in the bank for that drawing. I don't float anyone. Tickets are bought prior to noon on draw day, and everyone who played gets copies via email before 3 in the afternoon with the same wording stating how many players, cash option, split evenly (no one can contribute more than 1 'share'), and winnings of less than $1 per member are rolled. When we have winnings to roll over, only those players have those tickets and a new pool is formed in case any of the irregular players want to join. 

    We have 2 retirees and for now, one on medical leave. Those 3 have been regulars for years, so others tend to cover them if they don't have enough 'banked'. We also have one former regular who is going through a very nasty divorce who emailed me to drop her from any lottery pool correspondence because of the divorce. I've kept that email for backup.

    I was actually surprised our two irregulars didn't join. I asked one (tax guy), he laughed at me. I told he was out officially for that drawing. The other didn't have cash and said maybe next drawing.

    It's fun, and I kind of enjoy doing it. Mostly, I'd love to have that skype call to the corp office in Stamford when we tell them they need to start posting job openings. 

    Party

    And yes, I do play my own tickets, but I never buy them at the same time as the pools.

    face

    singlewinnersinglewinnersinglewinner   

      ohiopick3's avatar - Lottery-063.jpg
      Ohio
      United States
      Member #3023
      December 14, 2003
      4166 Posts
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      Posted: January 6, 2016, 8:14 pm - IP Logged

      News Channel 5 in Cleveland said that if there is no winner in this drawing, it can be more than $675 million.

      Let the game begin. Could be tonight, because you never just don't know.

      Good Fortune to all that played tonight!

        Avatar

        United States
        Member #171241
        January 4, 2016
        75 Posts
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        Posted: January 6, 2016, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

        It could be $600M by the time of the drawing. If it rolls on after tonight it would start in the $700M range but could approach a billion by Saturday night.

          LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
          Happyland
          United States
          Member #146344
          September 1, 2013
          1129 Posts
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          Posted: January 6, 2016, 8:21 pm - IP Logged

          No way it goes to 1 billion like so many says. If rolls over tonight, then likely 650-700MM on saturday.

          I don't think it will be a billion Saturday. That would require them to sell about $1.24 billion in tickets for tonight and Saturday night.

          If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
          If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

          2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
          P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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            United States
            Member #122691
            February 6, 2012
            330 Posts
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            Posted: January 6, 2016, 8:23 pm - IP Logged

            Car wish list

            Ferrari 355 Berlinetta 

            Porsche GT3 

            Lamborghini Diablo Old School Bull

            Aston Martin DB7 

            BMW Z8 

            Shelby Mustang GT350

            1967 427 Corvette Stingray 

            1963 Corvette Spilt Window 

            Now I need a storage building to fit 8 cars.... :-(

            You have fantastic taste in cars, we can be best friends. You are going have up that to at least 10 cars, I can't believe you forgot the 427 Cobra and the Eleanor Mustang. Smash

              Kyle7824's avatar - Lottery-042.jpg
              Greenville, NC
              United States
              Member #157301
              July 14, 2014
              3408 Posts
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              Posted: January 6, 2016, 8:28 pm - IP Logged

              You have fantastic taste in cars, we can be best friends. You are going have up that to at least 10 cars, I can't believe you forgot the 427 Cobra and the Eleanor Mustang. Smash

              I'll give you those two if I win... :)

              Oh and we can't forget a Venom Viper :)

                Kyle7824's avatar - Lottery-042.jpg
                Greenville, NC
                United States
                Member #157301
                July 14, 2014
                3408 Posts
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                Posted: January 6, 2016, 8:52 pm - IP Logged

                Got 1 QP and 1 my own numbers...

                So.... make that $500,000,004? lol

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                  NY
                  United States
                  Member #23835
                  October 16, 2005
                  3475 Posts
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                  Posted: January 6, 2016, 9:04 pm - IP Logged

                  I don't think it will be a billion Saturday. That would require them to sell about $1.24 billion in tickets for tonight and Saturday night.

                  Reaching a billion in one more draw is possible, but not likely. Even if it tops out at 550 tonight that's an increase of 450, which is 50% more than we've ever seen before, and that was almost 4 years ago. I'd guess 800+, and wouldn't be hugely surprised if it got to 900, but I wouldn't expect a billion.

                  As for how many tickets, they need another $306 million in cash if tonight ends at an even $500. At 68 cents from each ticket that's 450 million tickets.  Depending on the reserve fund it might take a bit more, but not even close to 1.2 billion (including the 170 million or so for the current roll).

                  FWIW, the record jump of almost $300 million for the MM record jackpot took sales of 651 million tickets, but that was at only $1 each. I'm guessing that the people who would spend $100, $200, or $500 on $1 MM tickets will spend the same amount and only buy half as many $2 PB tickets.

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                    Arizona
                    United States
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                    March 24, 2015
                    220 Posts
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                    Posted: January 6, 2016, 9:28 pm - IP Logged

                    That's nuts... 60%

                    What the chance (typically) when the jackpot is a measly 40 or 50 million... I'm surprised at how often it gets hit then

                    With the minimum jackpot, there's about a 5% chance of a winner.


                      United States
                      Member #108380
                      March 25, 2011
                      505 Posts
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                      Posted: January 6, 2016, 9:36 pm - IP Logged

                      I actually have 2 lottery pools I run at the office when the cash option reaches $100m. One is entire office, the other just our group (supervisor & 4 reports). For the bigger pool, we have 19 regulars and two irregular players out of about 30. We have 4 who never play for religious or other reasons and they are excluded from the email I send out before each drawing. I give a minimum 24 hours, use the same wording each time saying it is up to you to join & what the deadlines are. I also keep a bank for those who want to 'prepay' & several who work from home. I also give everyone's bank balance, and note who is short in the bank for that drawing. I don't float anyone. Tickets are bought prior to noon on draw day, and everyone who played gets copies via email before 3 in the afternoon with the same wording stating how many players, cash option, split evenly (no one can contribute more than 1 'share'), and winnings of less than $1 per member are rolled. When we have winnings to roll over, only those players have those tickets and a new pool is formed in case any of the irregular players want to join. 

                      We have 2 retirees and for now, one on medical leave. Those 3 have been regulars for years, so others tend to cover them if they don't have enough 'banked'. We also have one former regular who is going through a very nasty divorce who emailed me to drop her from any lottery pool correspondence because of the divorce. I've kept that email for backup.

                      I was actually surprised our two irregulars didn't join. I asked one (tax guy), he laughed at me. I told he was out officially for that drawing. The other didn't have cash and said maybe next drawing.

                      It's fun, and I kind of enjoy doing it. Mostly, I'd love to have that skype call to the corp office in Stamford when we tell them they need to start posting job openings. 

                      Party

                      And yes, I do play my own tickets, but I never buy them at the same time as the pools.

                      nice job you must have if you can devote all that time and energy to running and keeping all that straight. if the impossible ever happens there will be issues and lawsuits for sure from anyone who got left out that week.

                        Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

                        United States
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                        May 13, 2013
                        1186 Posts
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                        Posted: January 6, 2016, 9:49 pm - IP Logged

                        As much as I want to win it and want other people to win it I also want to see it shatter any and all records.

                        ME TOO!!! As much as I would love to win it tonight (and wouldn't even mind splitting it at this point), I do want to see how far it will go because it has been one of the wackiest jackpots already. It's a JP that decreased in sales at the $300M mark and now it's jumped $100M between draws at the $400M mark. Plus, the CV is outstanding. A wacky and fantastic JP run deserves a one of a kind ending.

                        I might wake up early and go running.  I might also wake up and win the lottery.

                        The odds are about the same.

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                          New Jersey
                          United States
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                          September 4, 2005
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                          Posted: January 6, 2016, 10:02 pm - IP Logged

                          Become a half-billionaire!

                          By Todd Northrop

                          For the second time in the last 24 hours, the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL) has raised the official Powerball lottery jackpot estimate for Wednesday's drawing when sales for the mega jackpot have vastly outstripped projections.

                          The all-important lump-sum cash value of the jackpot has been raised to a staggering $306 million.

                          The newly-increased annuity and cash value jackpot amounts both remain the 6th-largest ever recorded in United States lottery history. The top-25 annuity and cash value jackpots are listed below.

                          The Powerball drawing will be contacted Wednesday night at 10:59 pm Eastern Time (7:59 pm Pacific).  The mammoth grand prize started at $40 million on Nov. 7, 2015, and is the result of 17 drawings with no jackpot winner.

                          After the Saturday evening Powerball drawing, when it was determined that there were no jackpot winners, the new jackpot estimate for Wednesday was set at $400 million, with a cash value of $244.8 million. On Tuesday the lotteries raised the jackpot estimate to $450 million when it became clear that sales were outpacing expectations.  And now just a day later the lotteries have once again adjusted the jackpot skyward to $500 million.

                          By the time the drawing occurs tonight, the jackpot may be even further increased. The final jackpot tally will be announced during the live drawing show.

                          Lottery players seeking to check the winning numbers Wednesday night are urged to use USA Mega (www.usamega.com). State lottery Web sites are normally brought to a standstill during busy periods, while USA Mega normally remains responsive.

                          Powerball drawing results will be posted immediately after the 10:59 pm drawing at USA Mega. The number of winners and new jackpot will be announced after all participating Powerball states have reported their data, which normally occurs within a couple of hours after the drawing.

                          Tickets will remain on sale typically until 10:45 pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, although players should check with a lottery retailer in their state for the exact sales cutoff time. Players are advised not to wait until the last minute.

                          The odds of winning the jackpot are approximately 1 in 292 million. The odds of winning any of the Powerball prizes are approximately 1 in 25.

                          Powerball tickets cost $2 each.

                          Lottery players can see an after-tax analysis of the current Powerball jackpot by visiting USA Mega's Jackpot Analysis page.

                          Powerball features nine different prize levels, ranging from $4 all the way up to the jackpot. Players can win even if they just match one number — the Powerball number.

                          All states except California also offer the Power Play option for an extra $1 per ticket purchased. The Power Play multiplies any non-jackpot prizes won by the Power Play number drawn that evening.

                          Players who purchase the Power Play and win second prize will automatically have their prize increased by 2x to $2 million.

                          Top 25 United States lottery jackpots of all time

                          Wednesday's Powerball jackpot currently stands tied for the 6th-largest lottery jackpot of all time in the United States.  That position may rise again before the drawing, as lotteries are typically conservative in their initial estimates, and brisk sales may push the jackpot estimate higher by draw time.

                          1. Mega Millions: $656 million, Mar. 30, 2012 - Illinois, Kansas, Maryland
                          2. Mega Millions: $648 million, Dec. 17, 2013 - California, Georgia
                          3. Powerball: $590.5 million, May 18, 2013 - Florida
                          4. Powerball: $587.5 million, Nov. 28, 2012 - Arizona, Missouri
                          5. Powerball: $564.1 million, Feb. 7, 2015 - North Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas
                          6. Powerball: $500 million, Jan. 6, 2016 - Preliminary estimate, not won yet
                          7. Powerball: $448.4 million, Aug. 7, 2013 - Minnesota, New Jersey (2)
                          8. Powerball: $425.3 million, Feb. 19, 2014 - California
                          9. Mega Millions: $414 million, Mar. 18, 2014 - Florida, Maryland
                          10. Powerball: $399.4 million, Sep. 18, 2013 - South Carolina
                          11. Mega Millions: $390 million, Mar. 6, 2007 - Georgia, New Jersey
                          12. Mega Millions: $380 million, Jan. 4, 2011 - Idaho, Washington
                          13. Powerball: $365 million, Feb. 18, 2006 - Nebraska
                          14. The Big Game: $363 million, May 9, 2000 - Illinois, Michigan
                          15. Powerball: $340 million, Oct. 19, 2005 - Oregon
                          16. Powerball: $338.3 million, Mar. 23, 2013 - New Jersey
                          17. Powerball: $337 million, Aug. 15, 2012 - Michigan
                          18. Powerball: $336.4 million, Feb. 11, 2012 - Rhode Island
                          19. Mega Millions: $336 million, Aug. 28, 2009 - California, New York
                          20. The Big Game: $331 million, Apr. 16, 2002 - Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey
                          21. Mega Millions: $330 million, Aug. 31, 2007 - Maryland, New Jersey, Texas, Virginia
                          22. Mega Millions: $326 million, Nov. 4, 2014 - New York
                          23. Mega Millions: $319 million, Mar. 25, 2011 - New York
                          24. Mega Millions: $315 million, Nov. 15, 2005 - California
                          25. Powerball: $314.9 million, Dec. 25, 2002 - West Virginia

                          The number of jackpots in the top 25, by lottery game, are:

                          • Powerball: 13
                          • Mega Millions: 10
                          • The Big Game: 2

                          The Big Game is the original name of Mega Millions, from the game's first drawing on Sep. 6, 1996 through May 14, 2002.  The name was changed to Mega Millions starting with the May 17, 2002 drawing.

                          Top 25 cash value jackpots

                          Since many lottery winners collect their winnings in cash, the lump-sum payout is an important measure of what a winning ticket could be worth.

                          Looking at the cash value, the upcoming Powerball jackpot ranks as the 6th-largest cash value in U.S. history.

                          1. Mega Millions: $471 million cash, Mar. 30, 2012 ($656 million annuity) - Illinois, Kansas, Maryland
                          2. Powerball: $384.7 million cash, Nov. 28, 2012 ($587.5 million annuity) - Arizona, Missouri
                          3. Powerball: $381.1 million cash, Feb. 7, 2015 ($564.1 million annuity) - North Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas
                          4. Powerball: $370.9 million cash, May 18, 2013 ($590.5 million annuity) - Florida
                          5. Mega Millions: $347.6 million cash, Dec. 17, 2013 ($648 million annuity) - California, Georgia
                          6. Powerball: $306 million cash, Jan. 6, 2016 ($500 million annuity) - Preliminary estimate, not won yet
                          7. Powerball: $258.2 million cash, Aug. 7, 2013 ($448.4 million annuity) - Minnesota, New Jersey (2)
                          8. Mega Millions: $240 million cash, Jan. 4, 2011 ($380 million annuity) - Idaho, Washington
                          9. Mega Millions: $233.1 million cash, Mar. 6, 2007 ($390 million annuity) - Georgia, New Jersey
                          10. Mega Millions: $230.9 million cash, Mar. 18, 2014 ($414 million annuity) - Florida, Maryland
                          11. Powerball: $227.8 million cash, Feb. 19, 2014 ($425.3 million annuity) - California
                          12. Powerball: $224.7 million cash, Aug. 15, 2012 ($337 million annuity) - Michigan
                          13. Powerball: $223.3 million cash, Sep. 18, 2013 ($399.4 million annuity) - South Carolina
                          14. Mega Millions: $214 million cash, Aug. 28, 2009 ($336 million annuity) - California, New York
                          15. Powerball: $211 million cash, Mar. 23, 2013 ($338.3 million annuity) - New Jersey
                          16. Powerball: $210 million cash, Feb. 11, 2012 ($336.4 million annuity) - Rhode Island
                          17. Mega Millions: $202.9 million cash, Mar. 25, 2011 ($319 million annuity) - New York
                          18. Mega Millions: $197.5 million cash, Nov. 4, 2014 ($326 million annuity) - New York
                          19. Powerball: $197.4 million cash, Sep. 30, 2015 ($310.5 million annuity) - Michigan
                          20. Mega Millions: $194.4 million cash, Aug. 31, 2007 ($330 million annuity) - Maryland, New Jersey, Texas, Virginia
                          21. Mega Millions: $185 million cash, Nov. 15, 2005 ($315 million annuity) - California
                          22. The Big Game: $180 million cash, May 9, 2000 ($363 million annuity) - Illinois, Michigan
                          23. Mega Millions: $177.3 million cash, Jan. 16, 2015 ($270 million annuity) - Illinois
                          24. Powerball: $177.3 million cash, Feb. 18, 2006 ($365 million annuity) - Nebraska
                          25. Powerball: $170.5 million cash, Dec. 25, 2002 ($314.9 million annuity) - West Virginia

                          The number of jackpot cash values in the top 25, by lottery game, are:

                          • Powerball: 13
                          • Mega Millions: 11
                          • The Big Game: 1

                          Final probabilities for numbers of winners, assuming $316M in sales, utilizing a Poisson distribution and assuming randomization:

                           

                          k, number of winnersp(m,k)
                          057.00%
                          132.04%
                          29.01%
                          31.69%
                          40.24%
                          50.03%

                          The expectation value, pre-tax, is 0.63.

                            Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

                            United States
                            Member #142499
                            May 13, 2013
                            1186 Posts
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                            Posted: January 6, 2016, 10:05 pm - IP Logged

                             Found a lottery machine that dispenses all the games including scratch offs, a.k.a "refrigerators"  in a chain drug store.

                            Must have been dinner time because there were few people in the store at 4:50 PM  and no line at the machine. Banana

                            If a lottery pool wins won't be surprised if there will be difficulties that arise, as is often seen in the past. Dead

                            Anyone have any idea how many lottery pools were formed for this drawings? What?

                            How many pool organizer's provide its members with a a copy of the pool tickets before the drawing? Evil Uhh

                            We should have a winner somewhere with all the tickets being sold but if there is no winner tonight, it will be another week

                            of Power Ball Craze in the Media. Jester Laugh

                            Good Luck LP Players

                            Lep

                            That's the crazy thing. I stopped at two different places that usually have lines when the JP is big, and there was no one. Not at the machines, not at the register, everyone was just doing their own thing and didn't seem to care at all about the lottery. It was lunch time and a lot of people were milling about, just not buying tickets. 

                            I remember right before Gloria won, I couldn't go anywhere without hearing people talking about it. Check out lines, restaurants, the office, there as a lot of hoopla. It's been pretty much radio silence and less craziness this time, at least where I live. So you saying there was no line at the machine where you are seems in keeping  with what I've seen too.

                            I might wake up early and go running.  I might also wake up and win the lottery.

                            The odds are about the same.

                              Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

                              United States
                              Member #142499
                              May 13, 2013
                              1186 Posts
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                              Posted: January 6, 2016, 10:13 pm - IP Logged

                              So can we all agree that winning a $500 million annuity makes someone a half-billionaire? Yes or no?

                              Only if we were in Britain. Even if we didn't have to wait decades to get the whole thing, there's still a big chunk of money going to taxes that the winner will never see, so not half billionaire yet. If it rolls to next Wednesday, then yes.

                              I might wake up early and go running.  I might also wake up and win the lottery.

                              The odds are about the same.