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Mega Millions - is a $1, $2, or $3 ticket the best value (EV)?Reply
That's not how Expected Value works. Your statement is valid, however, from the standpoint of Standard Deviation. No question JTJ has the highest SD, by far. Let me give an expository example from Video Poker. Let's say this is Jacks or Better Draw. Suppose we have the following starting hand dealt to us before the draw: Jack-Spades, Jack-Clubs, 10-Clubs, 9-Clubs, 8-Clubs The payout chart is per unit bet is: Royal Flush - 800 Straight Flush - 50 4 of a Kind - 25 Full House -
Jul 27, 2022, 5:45 pm - Orange71 - Mathematics Forum

Approximating chaotic systemsReply
Chaotic systems are a subset of nonlinear systems. The following Nonlinear Dynamics video series by Prof. Liz Bradley , a course funded by the Santa Fe Institute, is worth a watch for better understanding nonlinear systems and practical issues when characterizing them. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLF0b3ThojznQ9xUDm-EbgFAnzdbeDVuSz During the course, she mentions a Nonlinear Time Series Analysis book, which is also worth looking at. The author of that book gave a talk wher
Sep 19, 2023, 8:16 am - Wavepack - Mathematics Forum

Chi-Squared Goodness of Fit Test for LotteriesReply
Yeah, the time variance of the statistics. They switch ball sets constantly, swap out individual balls when out of spec, etc. I have no model information for that time variance to incorporate into the estimation. Absent of a model, I account indirectly for time variant statistics with two time length parameters. During the discovery phase, which I'm still in, I adjust those parameters manually. Once I get a better feel of what information is available to help estimation, I can automate that para
Feb 3, 2023, 12:25 am - Wavepack - Mathematics Forum