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Pick-3 Credible Sets.....

Topic closed. 8 replies. Last post 12 years ago by straightchaser.

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straightchaser's avatar - avatar
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Posted: December 9, 2004, 2:34 pm - IP Logged

Below is my previous post to the Georgia Pick-3 post of CalifDude. Thanks for bringing this to our attention, and Win D for the additional info....

The GROUP= Pairs (22,23,24,25,28) is a credible set with a certain accuracy rate based on a "trigger" from yesterday's day and night pick 3 stream.  That "trigger" under my current scheme was the 261 (or a number with 2 excluding of course 2,3,4,5, and 8) and the "non 2" combination of last night's GA 3. Unfortunately, I overlooked something crucial. It's something I'll need to test before I report it. But to give more details .....

In the first set of "conditions", you'll note that all sequences fitting in the credible set have been out a minimum of 32 draws which now matches it's maximum number of skips. In addition, it's creating a new consecutive skips number, the 43 is now a 44.  So we're very close!

In the list of sequences the term "tsld" means "time since last drawn"; max,mean,median are all self explanatory measures of time between draws. The "ltd" is the last time drawn time out. I've found that this can also tell when a key item (combination, pair, digit, etc) is over-extended. It's useful if you think of successive differences in times between draws. There is  "threshold" for these across all lotteries.  Finally count is just the number of times the combination was drawn.

In general you wouldn't play all of these (even though it's not terribly costly if you're a 5dimer). Today I played the 128, 628, 524, and 623 three times.....straight and boxed @ $0.25. 

Hope this helps as an explanation.....

'chaser

 

 

Quote: Originally posted by straightchaser on December 9, 2004







CD and Win D thanks for the heads up on this. Folks buy your tickets NOW. See below:

GROUP= Pairs (22,23,24,25,28)

Current distance since last drawn from GROUP: 32,
Minimum distance between GROUP: 1,
Maximum distance between GROUP: 33
Median distance between GROUP: 4.000
Average distance between GROUP: 5.571
Last inter arrival time: 11
Standard deviation of distance between GROUP: 4.856
Number of outcomes in this group: 1126
Maximum consecutives distance between GROUP: 43(32+11=43).

Here are all sequences in the GROUP:

      sequence          tsld          max        median        mean          ltd          count
        289.00        32.00        974.00        132.00        175.55        40.00        34.00
        023.00        43.00        721.00        100.50        172.78        174.00        37.00
        224.00        53.00        726.00        109.50        194.75        114.00        33.00
        025.00        67.00        775.00        171.50        193.81        15.00        33.00
        123.00        69.00        474.00        114.00        177.29        327.00        36.00
        128.00        81.00        583.00        152.00        172.22        240.00        37.00
        238.00        99.00        428.00        162.00        170.77        65.00        36.00
        257.00        103.00        869.00        98.50        147.50        31.00        43.00
        125.00        105.00        621.00        111.00        154.92        156.00        37.00
        225.00        106.00        707.00        185.50        269.00        174.00        21.00
        248.00        114.00        993.00        78.00        149.82        69.00        41.00
        234.00        117.00        673.00        145.00        175.23        157.00        36.00
        246.00        131.00        423.00        90.00        130.81        241.00        48.00
        256.00        140.00        663.00        138.00        188.19        81.00        32.00
        268.00        142.00        563.00        126.50        161.33        134.00        37.00
        244.00        144.00        754.00        225.50        275.55        133.00        23.00
        278.00        147.00        475.00        122.00        156.26        43.00        40.00
        247.00        151.00        760.00        113.00        188.84        233.00        33.00
        024.00        158.00        422.00        106.00        139.93        168.00        44.00
        233.00        206.00        752.00        197.00        310.84        197.00        20.00
        239.00        209.00        859.00        68.00        159.92        69.00        39.00
        249.00        213.00        629.00        131.50        159.39        136.00        39.00
        259.00        222.00        645.00        113.50        185.63        645.00        33.00
        288.00        232.00      1674.00        253.00        463.55        77.00        12.00
        124.00        233.00        697.00        104.00        152.62        109.00        38.00
        245.00        241.00        916.00        117.00        173.09        440.00        36.00
        236.00        247.00        653.00        123.00        170.50        89.00        35.00
        235.00        287.00        676.00        86.50        154.37        18.00        39.00
        228.00        511.00      1270.00        240.00        411.07        11.00        15.00
        028.00        528.00        476.00        71.00        129.47        205.00        44.00
        255.00        566.00      1722.00        218.50        350.63        544.00        17.00
        237.00        647.00        724.00        153.00        242.26        521.00        24.00
        223.00        676.00        887.00        182.50        251.23        75.00        23.00
        258.00        761.00        647.00        114.00        184.50        64.00        31.00

Odds are in our favor here. Hopefully the GLC won't get wind of this !

    gilla's avatar - radar

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    Posted: December 9, 2004, 5:37 pm - IP Logged
    Come on 2, in the middle on mid, soon  ...thanks for the chart .



    From combined



    02    12/7<12/2<11/19<11/16<11/15<11/2<10/25<10/20<10/15<9/14<8/29<8/27<8/23<8/13<7/11<7/5<6/29<6/17<6/16<5/25<4/30<4/23<4/22<4/14<4/12<4/10<4/2<4/1<3/30<2/29<2/28<2/18<2/13<2/5<1/21<1/17<1/5<1/3


    12    12/8<11/24<11/1<10/26<10/13<10/10<8/6<8/5<7/21<6/19<6/18<6/18<6/14<6/7<6/3<5/25<5/20<5/9<5/7<4/30<4/2<3/30<3/16<3/16<3/1<2/25<2/21<2/18<2/16<2/13<1/30<1/21<1/20<1/16<1/13<1/8<1/5


    22    11/16<11/10<10/12<10/10<9/9<8/30<8/29<7/10<6/9<3/8<3/2<3/1<1/22<1/21<1/14<1/8<1/3
    23    11/15<11/1<10/16<10/6<9/11<8/19<8/18<8/13<7/28<7/14<7/12<7/10<7/7<7/4<6/29<6/27<6/10<6/8<5/9<5/7<5/6<5/5<4/10<3/20<3/9<3/6<2/2<1/31<1/27<1/23
    24   11/10<10/8<10/6<9/29<9/22<9/18<9/14<9/9<9/1<8/30<8/16<8/9<8/5<7/31<7/14<7/12<7/4<6/16<6/9<6/8<6/7<6/3<5/25<5/22<5/15<5/2<4/19<3/19<3/6<3/5<2/14<2/2<2/1<1/31<1/14<1/13<1/10
    25    11/2<10/25<10/15<10/14<10/13<10/12<9/27<9/26<9/24<9/4<8/27<8/23<8/18<8/11<8/11<7/31<7/15<7/10<7/7<6/27<6/19<6/19<6/18<5/31<5/25<5/20<4/14<4/6<4/1<3/9<2/21<2/7<1/27<1/23<1/23
    26    12/6<11/10<11/4<10/2<9/29<9/24<9/23<8/11<7/28<7/24<7/13<6/19<6/14<6/10<6/3<5/31<5/22<5/22<5/10<5/6<4/22<3/18<3/1<2/29<2/25<2/10<1/23<1/17<1/16<1/10
    27    12/2<11/19<11/12<10/14<9/27<9/26<9/20<9/18<9/4<8/28<8/18<7/24<7/24<7/5<6/17<6/2<5/20<5/15<5/10<5/2<4/23<4/6<3/17<3/16<3/11<3/5<2/17<2/16<2/14<1/21<1/16<1/16<1/8
    28   11/21<10/30<10/26<10/16<10/8<9/23<9/20<9/11<9/1<8/28<8/9<8/5<7/24<7/13<7/10<6/25<6/18<5/20<4/19<3/20<3/19<3/16<3/11<3/8<3/2<3/1<2/28<2/1<1/31<1/30<1/22<1/8
    29    12/7<11/24<11/21<11/12<11/10<11/4<10/30<10/20<10/2<8/18<8/16<8/11<8/6<7/12<7/11<6/3<5/22<3/18<3/17<2/17<2/10<1/31

        From EVE



    02    12/7<11/19<11/16<11/15<11/2<10/25<10/20<10/15<9/14<8/29<8/27<8/23<8/13<7/11<7/5<6/17<4/30<4/1<3/30<2/29<2/13<1/17<1/5<1/3


    12    11/24<11/1<10/10<6/18<6/7<5/25<5/20<5/9<4/30<3/30<3/16<2/25<2/13<1/21<1/20<1/16<1/8<1/5
    22  11/17<10/12<10/10<9/9<8/30<8/29<7/10<3/8<3/2<1/22<1/21<1/8<1/3
    23    11/15<11/1<10/6<8/19<8/13<7/28<7/4<6/27<6/10<5/9<5/5<3/20<1/27
    24    10/6<9/14<9/9<8/30<8/9<7/31<7/12<7/4<6/7<6/3<5/15<5/2<4/19<2/14<2/1<1/10
    25    11/2<10/25<10/15<10/12<9/27<9/26<9/4<8/27<8/23<8/18<8/11<7/31<7/10<6/27<6/19<5/31<4/1<2/7<1/27<1/23
    26    11/10<11/4<10/2<8/11<7/28<6/19<6/10<5/31<5/22<3/18<3/1<2/29<2/25<1/23<1/17<1/10
    27    11/19<11/12<9/27<9/26<9/20<9/4<8/18<7/24<7/5<6/17<6/2<5/25<5/15<5/2<3/16<3/11<2/14<1/16
    28    11/21<10/30<9/20<8/9<8/5<7/24<6/18<5/20<4/19<3/20<3/11<3/8<3/2<3/1<2/1<1/31<1/22
    29    12/7<11/24<11/21<11/12<11/10<11/4<10/30<10/20<10/2<7/11<6/3<5/22<3/18<1/31


              From MID



    02  12/2<6/29<6/16<5/25<4/23<4/22<4/14<4/12<4/10<4/2<2/28<2/18<2/5<1/21


    12    12/8<10/26<10/13<8/6<8/5<7/21<6/19<6/18<6/14<6/3<5/7<4/2<3/16<3/1<2/21<2/18<2/16<1/30<1/13




    22  11/10<6/9<3/1<1/14
    23    10/16<9/11<8/18<7/14<7/12<7/10<7/7<6/29<6/8<5/7<5/6<4/10<3/9<3/6<2/2<1/31<1/23
    24    11/10<10/8<9/29<9/22<9/18<9/1<8/16<8/5<7/14<6/16<6/9<6/8<5/25<5/22<3/19<3/6<3/5<2/2<1/31<1/14<1/13
    25    10/14<10/13<9/24<8/11<7/21<7/7<6/19<6/18<5/20<4/14<4/6<3/9<2/21<1/23
    26    12/8<9/29<9/24<9/23<7/24<7/13<6/14<6/3<5/22<5/10<5/6<4/22<2/10<1/16
    27    12/2<10/14<9/18<8/28<7/24<5/20<5/10<4/23<4/6<3/17<3/5<2/17<2/16<1/21<1/16<1/8
    28    10/26<10/16<10/8<9/23<9/11<9/1<8/28<7/13<7/10<6/25<3/19<3/16<2/28<1/30<1/8
    29    8/18<8/16<8/11<8/6<7/12<3/17<2/17<2/10
       

        gilla

      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
      Stone Mountain*Georgia
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      Member #828
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      Posted: December 9, 2004, 7:12 pm - IP Logged

       Chaser that is some serious tracking you do .....

       and some INDUSTRIAL STRENGTH  software you are working with. >LOL

       What is it? Thanks

       

       

      The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                    Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                    Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                             Win d    

        straightchaser's avatar - avatar
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        Posted: December 9, 2004, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

        Win D you've been pm'ed. Gilla nice work.

         

        'chaser

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          Posted: December 9, 2004, 8:49 pm - IP Logged

          that is some serious stuff chaser, hope it works out for you!

                                                       

                                                         "  When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty "


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            Posted: December 9, 2004, 11:19 pm - IP Logged

            Hi Chaser,

            Thanks for explaination but wonder if you could help me out a little bit more.  Why are the 22 pair numbers 022, 122, 222, 622, 722, and 922 not included in your sequence numbers?  Example---022 is 41 tsld's for the combined draw (prior to today).  Does it have something to do with the maximum skips associated with these numbers?  I don't track combined draws so I do not have the data available to determine if this is the case? 

            Thanks, Dr P.  10, 2 & 4

              straightchaser's avatar - avatar
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              Posted: December 10, 2004, 5:47 am - IP Logged
              Quote: Originally posted by Dr Pepper on December 9, 2004



              Hi Chaser,

              Thanks for explaination but wonder if you could help me out a little bit more.  Why are the 22 pair numbers 022, 122, 222, 622, 722, and 922 not included in your sequence numbers?  Example---022 is 41 tsld's for the combined draw (prior to today).  Does it have something to do with the maximum skips associated with these numbers?  I don't track combined draws so I do not have the data available to determine if this is the case? 

              Thanks, Dr P.  10, 2 & 4





              Dr. P,

              These were eliminated by their tsld relative to those in the set. I use both the single streams (day and night) and the combined stream. The combined streams are use to find the pairs since they give a more accurate view of what should fall. Once these are determined, the "triggers" are then put in place using the single streams. Mathematically, it like looking for a local maximum, once all global maximums have been determined. HTH

              Note that my inclusion of my current triggers missed the repeater 902.  A problem I expect to fix.

              'chaser 

                gilla's avatar - radar

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                Posted: December 12, 2004, 7:50 pm - IP Logged

                GROUP= Pairs (22,23,24,25,28)

                Current distance since last drawn from GROUP: 32,
                Minimum distance between GROUP: 1,
                Maximum distance between GROUP: 33
                Median distance between GROUP: 4.000
                Average distance between GROUP: 5.571
                Last inter arrival time: 11
                Standard deviation of distance between GROUP: 4.856
                Number of outcomes in this group: 1126
                Maximum consecutives distance between GROUP: 43(32+11=43).

                Here are all sequences in the GROUP:

                      sequence          tsld          max        median        mean          ltd          count
                        289.00        32.00        974.00        132.00        175.55        40.00        34.00
                        023.00        43.00        721.00        100.50        172.78        174.00        37.00
                        224.00        53.00        726.00        109.50        194.75        114.00        33.00
                        025.00        67.00        775.00        171.50        193.81        15.00        33.00
                        123.00        69.00        474.00        114.00        177.29        327.00        36.00
                        128.00        81.00        583.00        152.00        172.22        240.00        37.00
                        238.00        99.00        428.00        162.00        170.77        65.00        36.00
                        257.00        103.00        869.00        98.50        147.50        31.00        43.00
                        125.00        105.00        621.00        111.00        154.92        156.00        37.00
                        225.00        106.00        707.00        185.50        269.00        174.00        21.00
                        248.00        114.00        993.00        78.00        149.82        69.00        41.00
                        234.00        117.00        673.00        145.00        175.23        157.00        36.00
                        246.00        131.00        423.00        90.00        130.81        241.00        48.00
                        256.00        140.00        663.00        138.00        188.19        81.00        32.00
                        268.00        142.00        563.00        126.50        161.33        134.00        37.00
                        244.00        144.00        754.00        225.50        275.55        133.00        23.00
                        278.00        147.00        475.00        122.00        156.26        43.00        40.00
                        247.00        151.00        760.00        113.00        188.84        233.00        33.00
                        024.00        158.00        422.00        106.00        139.93        168.00        44.00
                        233.00        206.00        752.00        197.00        310.84        197.00        20.00
                        239.00        209.00        859.00        68.00        159.92        69.00        39.00
                        249.00        213.00        629.00        131.50        159.39        136.00        39.00
                        259.00        222.00        645.00        113.50        185.63        645.00        33.00
                        288.00        232.00      1674.00        253.00        463.55        77.00        12.00
                        124.00        233.00        697.00        104.00        152.62        109.00        38.00
                        245.00        241.00        916.00        117.00        173.09        440.00        36.00
                        236.00        247.00        653.00        123.00        170.50        89.00        35.00
                        235.00        287.00        676.00        86.50        154.37        18.00        39.00
                        228.00        511.00      1270.00        240.00        411.07        11.00        15.00
                        028.00        528.00        476.00        71.00        129.47        205.00        44.00
                        255.00        566.00      1722.00        218.50        350.63        544.00        17.00
                        237.00        647.00        724.00        153.00        242.26        521.00        24.00
                        223.00        676.00        887.00        182.50        251.23        75.00        23.00
                       258.00        761.00        647.00        114.00        184.50        64.00        31.00

                Odds are in our favor here. Hopefully the GLC won't get wind of this !



                825, took it a couple of days, maybe some more to come.

                   

                    gilla

                  straightchaser's avatar - avatar
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                  SC
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                  April 15, 2004
                  345 Posts
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                  Posted: December 12, 2004, 8:09 pm - IP Logged

                  Thanks gilla.

                  Yes it did take longer than I expected, but I caught it anyway. Knew the sum 15 was away too in the combined draw. So I got it good. Everyone's still waiting on that 2 in position 2. Note this was the daily draw, since there's only one on Sunday. But it may come again. This group is good for the midday tomorrow(Monday) as well since it went out sooooo long. Try the 2 in the middle on your favorite choice in tomorrow's midday.

                  'chaser