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How many repeats to expect

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 12 years ago by Rick G.

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Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
FEMA Region V Camp #21
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Posted: January 13, 2005, 11:44 am - IP Logged

I did an informal sampling from various games and compared how many repeats happen in one game in 4 weeks.  For a sample I used a handful of states and treated each draw (mid. vs. eve.) seperately.





The average came to about 2 - 3 winners that had already played within the last 4 weeks.





If you've had only 1 or 2 repeats within the last 4 weeks it's a "safe bet" to use them.  But if you've already had 3 or more repeats in the last 4 weeks, then I question where it is a good time to play them.





Hope this helps somebody and...Good Luck   





 

Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


    gumbo's avatar - Lottery-029.jpg

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    Posted: January 13, 2005, 11:56 am - IP Logged

    interesting



    I'll do a backtrack on the bayou---thanks for the "tip"



       SALUTE OUR TROOPS

    Gumbolady
    "I'm smelling a winning number tonight"...Coffee

      Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
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      Posted: January 13, 2005, 12:47 pm - IP Logged

      Hope that "tip" turns out bar-b-que for you gumbo!  Let me know what you come up with for LA, OK?  I used the last 4 calendar weeks in my so-called study.





      Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
        Stone Mountain*Georgia
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        Posted: January 13, 2005, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

         Thanks very much Rick G.  LOOKs like around 10% return rate..... for seperate draws within a month.





         Thats the sort of stat that really helps increase our chances out here. I have no multi state study to back this up but...... I'll bet the repeat rate on combined draws during the same 30 day test period is over double ......or close to20 % 

         

         

        The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                      Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                      Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                               Win d    

          gumbo's avatar - Lottery-029.jpg

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          Posted: January 13, 2005, 1:06 pm - IP Logged

              ---bar-b-que "whole hog"== $$



          ----



          I'll do my basting and hit you back with the smoke jaws -- in layman's terms--results



             SALUTE OUR TROOPS

          Gumbolady
          "I'm smelling a winning number tonight"...Coffee

            Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
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            Posted: January 13, 2005, 1:12 pm - IP Logged

            Win D...good point, it varies widely (similar to your probability post...lol).





            Admittedly I used a limited sampling.  But you are right on target with your 10% figure if more research could back this up.  Using 4 calendar weeks (28 draws for eve. and in the case of middays without Sunday draws, 24 draws) the average came to 9.1 %) so if you throw those 2-3 extra draws in there for the last 'month' you are approaching that 10% mark.





            Example regarding your "wide variability with probabilty" theory...





            When I did this a couple days ago for IL midday, there were 4 repeats which equates to 16.6 %.....that's using only the last 24 draws because we don't have Sun. middays.   





            Combining mid and eve stats in the same states I came up with 17.3 % average, again close to your 20% prediction....again this is based on a small sampling.

            Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


              Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
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              Posted: January 13, 2005, 1:45 pm - IP Logged

              Note on last post....last paragraph figures are based on repeats in the same draw, not the opposite draw....those numbers would definitely go up if you were counting cross-draw repeats.

              Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                chipp's avatar - starwars26
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                Posted: January 16, 2005, 11:22 am - IP Logged

                IL ev  708-1/2/05

                IL ev  708-1/15/05

                  Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
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                  Posted: January 16, 2005, 11:36 am - IP Logged

                  Right you are my friend, Chipp....that makes three repeats in the last 4 weeks of evening draws, so I'm avoiding them right now.  I think the borderline of 2 repeats being OK to play another repeat and 3 repeats to stop playing them is a sound filter for using repeats.

                  The funny thing is there were 4 repeats in the IL midday during the last 4 weeks of draws when I checked it about a week ago and now there haven't been any in the last 4 weeks.  I guess they come in bunches?

                   

                  Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                    chipp's avatar - starwars26
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                    Posted: January 16, 2005, 11:47 am - IP Logged

                    The 07 pair has favored Sundays draw this month. I guess it decided to show up early last night. I'll be watching out for 704 tonight but that would be a monster repeat. Good luck!

                      Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
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                      Posted: January 16, 2005, 12:16 pm - IP Logged

                      Well Chipp...we're in definite agreement on the 04 pair....I'm going with the 004, hoping the doubles, evens, lows trends continue in the IL eves.  (And you know how IL Sundays likes doubles).

                       

                      Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                        AngelEyes's avatar - eye storm.jpg
                        Lucky Town
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                        Posted: January 16, 2005, 2:35 pm - IP Logged

                        I lookin at the 880 or 800 in Ill Latenite(sunday)

                        AngelEyes

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                          Posted: January 16, 2005, 4:48 pm - IP Logged
                          Quote: Originally posted by Rick G on January 16, 2005



                          Right you are my friend, Chipp....that makes three repeats in the last 4 weeks of evening draws, so I'm avoiding them right now.  I think the borderline of 2 repeats being OK to play another repeat and 3 repeats to stop playing them is a sound filter for using repeats.

                          The funny thing is there were 4 repeats in the IL midday during the last 4 weeks of draws when I checked it about a week ago and now there haven't been any in the last 4 weeks.  I guess they come in bunches?

                           




                          I think they are like Schroedinger's Cat ; they only exist if you actually see them !  That seems to be in accord with a lot of this weirdness that is going on in the games so far this year.

                          ============

                          How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                          Answer: His lips are moving.

                            LAVERNE MALONEY's avatar - smallgirl

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                            Posted: January 16, 2005, 4:57 pm - IP Logged

                            Hello there, 008 boxed- travel track WI-11/16,  088 boxed- travel track MD-11/17. It should appear somewhere in the general area. 

                              chipp's avatar - starwars26
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                              Posted: January 20, 2005, 7:50 am - IP Logged

                              Illinois midday-128-107-071-128-