|Posted: February 22, 2005, 10:31 am - IP Logged|
Its just doing the math and looking for averages ...... there will always be Streakers that out pace everyone else......and the inevitable Stinker that hangs back for what seems like forever. It's just like what happens with the single digits that hit each day....most are normal and hit on average of every 3 days...... and ofcourse ...one of them will pick up an go on vacation for 20 days. One will hit every dad gum day for 7 days in a row! Thats just the way of it and sometimes it's just a big gamble....and some times a little one..... thats the name of the game.
The hoizontal lines have 10 six way numbers each.... so figure that's actually 60 numbers or a little over half of one of the 10 columns in the 1000 chart. Each one should average a hit about 6% of the time.
365 x .06 = 21.9 hits per year 365 divided by 21.9 = 16.66 days
So the average hit rate for the horizontal columns is every 16.66 days * If..... If..... you don't mix your Day and Night time draws.
To figure the vertical rows..... its now 12 six way numbers instead of the above 10 soooooo.....
12x 6 = 72 numbers and one of these should average a hit 7.2 % of the time or ....
365x 7.2 = 26.28 hits per yr. 365 divided by 26.28 = 13.88 days
The are only 120 six way numbers ...... and they only hit 72% of the time and sooooo we can expect that most will average hitting at least 2 times per year right? There are only 262 days a year that we will get a six way number on average.
262.8 divided by 120 (6 ways) =2.19 hits per yr. per number.
So each of the 120 chart should average about 2.2 hits per year.
If we get about half way through the year and you see one of these 6 ways has already hit hits average of 2 or 3 ....and maybe even a rare 4 times ..........you can pretty much forget these for the rest of the next 6 months.
Yes ....there will be numbers on that 120 chart that will hit 5 or 6 times a year ....maybe one or two of them but not enough to worry about. Consider them dead numbers......or at least way... way over the edge of reason. .... past histories..... and experience.
The only real failure .....is the failure to try.
Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much.
Odds never change .....but probability does.