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What are the ODDS/Probability?

Topic closed. 10 replies. Last post 12 years ago by WIN D.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
Member #828
November 2, 2002
10491 Posts
Offline
Posted: March 11, 2005, 8:50 pm - IP Logged



 What if I told you that I could make over 65% of the Pick 3 1000 number chartdisappear for over 2 weeks? Yes .....for over 2 weeks.  I could make654 numbers of the chart plus 3 triples disappear. If you were a professional Gambler you would certainly take that bet wouldn't you?    

       That's  65.7% of  all the possible numbers in the 1000 chart that would just go  ....POOF !   No hits from this group for over 2 weeks. What are the odds ....or Probability of this happening? Who cares right? Because thats just impossible right and will never  happen. .........NOt .....!  It's happening in Tenn. Pick 3 game as this post is being written. Impossible ? Check it out as of this day 3/11/05 

  Red numbers below are the missing group... including doubles.

  If anyone here is capable of computing the probability of this dvent please dive in. 

** If ,you are who I think you are......I will wait until you finish making all your bets in Tenn. ....then you can post the answer. LOL   

                  







012 013 014 015 016 017 018 019  023 024 025 026 027 028 029 034 035 036 037 038 039 045 046 047 048 049 056 057 058 059 067 068 069 078 079 089 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 134 135 136 137 138 139 145 146 147 148 149 156 157 158 159 167 168 169 178 179 189 234 235 236 237 238 239 245 246 247 248 249 256 257 258 259 267 268 269 278 279 289 345 346 347 348 349 356 357 358 359 367 368 369 378 379 389 456 457 458 459 467 468 469 478 479 489 567 568 569 578 579 589 678 679 689 789
 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 011 022 033 044 055 066 077 088 099 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 122 133 144 155 166 177 188 199 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 233 244 255 266 277 288 299 334 335 336 337 338 339 344 355 366 377 388 399 445 446 447 448 449 455 466 477 488 499 556 557 558 559 566 577 588 599 667 668 669 677 688 699 778 779 788 799 889 899

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

    LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
    Tennessee
    United States
    Member #7853
    October 15, 2004
    11338 Posts
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    Posted: March 11, 2005, 8:59 pm - IP Logged

    i don't keep up with the statistics side of this very much,i was wondering has this ever happened before??? 

      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
      Stone Mountain*Georgia
      United States
      Member #828
      November 2, 2002
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      Posted: March 11, 2005, 10:08 pm - IP Logged

       Well, Lottomike .....I have never seen it before and that covers several years of playing my own state.

        Think of it this way....  If we cut the game up into thirds and you and I keep 2 thirds to play ....and we give someone else only 1/3 rd. to play.

           Then they beat us every single day for 15 days in a row ! 

             2 to 1 odds ....... and we get killed for 15 days in a row..... and thats just so far.  Remember it hasn't stopped yet.

        Hell....it looked like a good bet to me over a week ago. LOL        

       

       

      The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                    Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                    Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                             Win d    

        LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
        Tennessee
        United States
        Member #7853
        October 15, 2004
        11338 Posts
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        Posted: March 11, 2005, 10:38 pm - IP Logged

        win d i hit on 568 tonight.....next i'm going for 584 and 596...hope this run ain't over yet..................

          WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
          Stone Mountain*Georgia
          United States
          Member #828
          November 2, 2002
          10491 Posts
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          Posted: March 11, 2005, 11:08 pm - IP Logged

           I wish ya Luck Lottomike but I can tell ya this........... its a whole lot closer to the end of this roll than the beginning ! LOL    I would throw at least couple of quarters the other way (just in case) tomorrow night... 

           I was in Vegas playing Craps one time and saw a young fella throw a lot of money down on the "field" bet section of the table. I didn't want to tell him that is what regular players call the "Suckers Bet" and before the days of Political Correctness ...they called it the "Ladies Bet" (ouch!)

            The reason being that although more numbers are in the section ...they have the absolute worst odds on the table.....other than the hard ways sections.

            Anyway, to make a long story short ...... the kid stayed on the that field bet for over 10 or 15 mins. After that he thanked me for the advice and help ......picked up his $10,000.00 profit in cash and left. LOL    

               

           

           

          The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                        Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                        Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                 Win d    

            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
            Stone Mountain*Georgia
            United States
            Member #828
            November 2, 2002
            10491 Posts
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            Posted: March 12, 2005, 8:27 am - IP Logged




            Chart - Hit Frequency and Rankfor 15 days....................


            Rank8882555133


            Expected
            Hit Times
            5
             


            0
             


            0
             


            0
             


            8
             


            5
             


            5
             


            5
             


            10
             


            6
             


            6
             
            Numbers0123456789


            Table - Numbers Sorted by Hit Frequency





            Numbers7389456012
            Rank1233555888
            Hit Times10866555000

              And Here is the chart of hits for the last 100 days...... I have never seen this before. This has virtually been the same for the entire `100 draws`

             Chart - Hit Frequency and Rank






            Rank9986753124


            Expected
            Hit Times
            30
             


            14
             


            14
             


            23
             


            31
             


            24
             


            32
             


            37
             


            52
             


            38
             


            35
             
            Numbers0123456789


            Table - Numbers Sorted by Hit Frequency





            Numbers7869534201
            Rank1234567899
            Hit Times52383735323124231414



             

             Here it is for the last 200 draws.

             Chart - Hit Frequency and Rank






            Rank10964873125


            Expected
            Hit Times
            60
             


            30
             


            44
             


            60
             


            63
             


            56
             


            59
             


            71
             


            82
             


            74
             


            61
             
            Numbers0123456789


            Table - Numbers Sorted by Hit Frequency





            Numbers7863925410
            Rank12345678910
            Hit Times82747163616059564430




              OK... here are the last 400 draws. Interesting who the leader is. Digit 2 ..

             Chart - Hit Frequency and Rank






            Rank10914685326


            Expected
            Hit Times
            113
             


            75
             


            79
             


            136
             


            122
             


            117
             


            103
             


            118
             


            130
             


            131
             


            117
             
            Numbers0123456789


            Table - Numbers Sorted by Hit Frequency





            Numbers2873649510
            Rank12345668910
            Hit Times1361311301221181171171037975


             

             

            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                   Win d    

              johnph77's avatar - avatar
              CA
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              December 10, 2003
              832 Posts
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              Posted: March 12, 2005, 10:09 am - IP Logged

              Win D -

              Possible glitch in 400-draw chart? Expected hits are 120? Total hits are 1200?

              gl

              j

              Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

              Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

               =^.^=

                WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                Stone Mountain*Georgia
                United States
                Member #828
                November 2, 2002
                10491 Posts
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                Posted: March 12, 2005, 11:25 am - IP Logged

                 Thanks johnph...... actually the Tenn. draw just started last year in march 04. The increment choices were only 300 and the only other next level was 400. 

                 Soooo..... I decided to go with the 400 level because it was closer. 365 + 12 =372   not 400 but hopefully the point still stood.  Expected hit rate should average around 30 per 100. ...or in this specific case 21 or 22  or 112 or 113 total.....even though the chart is for 400 instead of 372.  Ofcourse, you would be the only one to notice...LOL

                  By the way john...you were going to be one of the one's I would hope could calculate this probability. Yes?  What would be the odds of all three digits going on vacation at the same time for over 2 weeks?  Low....is my best answer right now...LOL  

                 

                 

                The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                       Win d    

                  WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                  Stone Mountain*Georgia
                  United States
                  Member #828
                  November 2, 2002
                  10491 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: March 12, 2005, 8:32 pm - IP Logged

                   This just can't be real. You mean the odds were as low as 1% after the first 4 draws? Amazing!

                                       I can't even read the 14th.occurance percentage





                  140.000000311973482284543



                                                                      ?

                    For the first time in my life I have to say...." Is this rigged ?" or are the drawing balls off balance?

                    Our thanks to johnph77 for his expert help on this very rare occurance and perhaps World Record p3 dvent. It actually went one more draw for a total of 15 skipped draws   It hit tonight as 164 ......

                   


                  012 013 014 015 016 017 018 019  023 024 025 026 027 028 029 034 035 036 037 038 039 045 046 047 048 049 056 057 058 059 067 068 069 078 079 089 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 134 135 136 137 138 139 145 146 147 148 149 156 157 158 159 167 168 169 178 179 189 234 235 236 237 238 239 245 246 247 248 249 256 257 258 259 267 268 269 278 279 289 345 346 347 348 349 356 357 358 359 367 368 369 378 379 389 456 457 458 459 467 468 469 478 479 489 567 568 569 578 579 589 678 679 689 789
                   


                   

                   

                  The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                         Win d    

                    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                    Stone Mountain*Georgia
                    United States
                    Member #828
                    November 2, 2002
                    10491 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: March 13, 2005, 10:40 am - IP Logged

                    Interesting.  Looks like the odds are about 3 to 1, with the exponent increasing by one each time (2x=9:1, 3x=27:1, etc.).  Good thing it didn't roll over again last night. If we think the odds of 9m:1 are really unbelievable, then 27m:1 is getting into astrophysics!!

                    You'd almost think this was worthy of a newspaper article in Tennessee!  Looks like this is truly a once-in-a-lifetime dvent.

                    27 million to 1 and it Caves in..LOL

                      Funny...there are Big dvents happening in little places all over the world, and most of the time they just go unnoticed.

                     

                     

                    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                           Win d    

                      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                      Stone Mountain*Georgia
                      United States
                      Member #828
                      November 2, 2002
                      10491 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: April 9, 2005, 3:09 pm - IP Logged

                       This was one of the biggest.. and most helpful break throughs in my span of tracking numbers !

                                  I can't believe no one noticed or even commented on this.  march

                       

                        I won't tell .....but there it is right in front of ya.  Saves tons money and bad odds plays.        

                       

                       

                      The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                    Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                    Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                             Win d