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Indiana, RNGs & Allegations: Time to Test

Topic closed. 28 replies. Last post 11 years ago by Todd.

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LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
Tennessee
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Posted: April 29, 2005, 5:17 am - IP Logged

i still think indiana is rigged.....

    LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
    Tennessee
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    Posted: April 29, 2005, 5:18 am - IP Logged

    i'm sure losingjeff would agree....

      Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
      FEMA Region V Camp #21
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      Posted: April 30, 2005, 11:00 am - IP Logged

      Aye',

      I don't think it can be proven to be illegitimate mathematically is my point.  The results and classification percentages are right in line with other states, whether they are computerized or not.

      I don't know much about RNG testing, but have used the inspector 3 tool extensively on many different states using many different histories.  The longer the history the more in line with normal expectations.  Indiana does not appear to be out of line statistically.

      I DO, however, have a problem with the same computer system used at the terminals being used to pick the winning numbers.  That just ain't right.  It has the appearance of being dishonest.

       

      Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


        LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
        Tennessee
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        Posted: May 14, 2005, 2:40 am - IP Logged

        this is one subject i've thought long and hard about and i still think its rigged somewhere,just my opinion.....

          LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
          Tennessee
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          Posted: June 1, 2005, 3:31 pm - IP Logged

          the only thing you have a descent shot at in indiana is powerball because that drawing is not computerized and they can't mess with it....

            time*treat's avatar - radar

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            Posted: June 4, 2005, 3:58 pm - IP Logged

            mathematical proof:

            without knowing how much is being played on each number, each day; as long as the overall number outcome is in line with expected stats, you can't prove rigging.

            If you can choose from A-to-Z, as long as I make sure each letter shows up NEARLY 1/26th of the time, I just pick from among the less popular (for a particular draw) choices.

            This sounds worse than it is. Imagine how many (VERY UNHAPPY) winners there would be if something like 1-2-3-4-5-6 ever came out in a lotto.

            Jackpot / winners = $10.00

            lottery officials --> Chair<--lottery "winners"

            In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
            Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

              LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
              Tennessee
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              Posted: June 4, 2005, 4:48 pm - IP Logged

              with computerized drawings you never know 1-2-3-4-5-6  is a real possibility.

                Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                Chief Bottle Washer
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                Posted: June 4, 2005, 4:49 pm - IP Logged

                with computerized drawings you never know 1-2-3-4-5-6  is a real possibility.

                I Agree!

                 

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                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: June 4, 2005, 10:02 pm - IP Logged

                  with computerized drawings you never know 1-2-3-4-5-6  is a real possibility.

                  It's almost possible with ball drawings too.

                  MEGAMILLIONS  -  09/20/02 -  01 02 04 05 46  +08

                  RJOh

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    MathWizard's avatar - moon
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                    Posted: June 17, 2005, 10:03 pm - IP Logged

                    To prove this one way or the other mathematically would require tens of thousands of draw results and that would only work if the draw corruption was extremely blatant.

                    Logically, however, the facts that triples result in large payouts, and that triples are appearing at an expected frequency, tends to discredit the concept that there is an algorithmic procedure manipulating the draw results.  Such a program, were it to be used, would have to be intelligent enough to know when high payout results are minimized and select the popular numbers at that time.  As a programmer, I know that I could do such a thing, but it would be a very complex process.

                    More to the point however, is that anyone in the Lottery requesting that such a program be written would likely end up fired.  If it did get past that, then the programmers, testers, QA staff and auditors would all have to be in on it.  This is not a branch of the CIA.  The people who work in lotteries are not required to keep those kinds of secrets as part of some greater good.  One of the people involved would blow the whistle, and again, the director involved would be fired.

                    For what it is worth, I discussed an RNG with the programmers at the Indiana Lottery many years ago, and they seemed like really nice people.  Of course, you never can tell, but they certainly never eluded to any interest in trying to build a program like this.

                      Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                      Chief Bottle Washer
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                      Posted: June 17, 2005, 10:11 pm - IP Logged
                      MathWizard,   
                       
                      Sometimes, like in the case of California's Daily Derby, an unintended problem exists that the lottery does not know about.  In that game, it made certain combinations of numbers impossible to win, while making it easier to win for others.  There was no one "fired" and no one "ordered it up" at the CA Lottery, but it existed all the same.  Denying that such a problem could exist in the Indiana Lottery would be denying that computer programs have bugs.
                       
                      As a computer programmer, you know that almost every program ever written has bugs, and most times programs sneak through without all the bugs being discovered.  Who's to say that the Indiana Lottery RNG isn't poorly written, and that it doesn't favor triples, even though they didn't explicitly ASK for that behavior?
                       
                      In addition, if you researched this topic you would understand that Indiana got their RNG by downloading it off an Internet web site.  Not exactly secure in my book.  They might have changed it since then, but I have no knowledge of that happening.  I believe they are still using the freeware download. 

                       

                      Check the State Lottery Report Card
                      What grade did your lottery earn?

                       

                      Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                      Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                        LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
                        Tennessee
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                        Posted: June 17, 2005, 10:21 pm - IP Logged

                        lol,thats pretty bad a million dollar corporation like indiana lottery using a free download off the internet just to save a few pennies.i don't understand why these people don't see that when you change from ball drawings to computers most of the time sales do suffer...........

                          MathWizard's avatar - moon
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                          Posted: June 17, 2005, 10:34 pm - IP Logged

                          I absolutely agree that there could be a programming bug.  And, a bug is unlikely to be discovered without a huge number of samples.  DIEHARD (a program for testing RNG algorithms) generally requires a minimum of 3 million data points to make a decision about the "randomness" of an algorithm.  Basic mathematical tests like chi-squared could show a tendency towards non-randomness with perhaps 25,000.  It would not be a proof, but if there is a problem in the sample, then further investigation would be warranted.  Unfortunately, there are just not that many draws.

                          What I was more addressing was the idea of the RNG program looking at the numbers that have been wagered and deciding from that data what number should be drawn.  That is not a bug ... that would require very sophisticated programming and an intention by someone to make the program work that way.  In order for the program to get access to the data, it would have to have cooperative communication with the ticket generating system as well.

                          While I did not know that Indiana downloaded their RNG from the net (thanks for that interesting fact ... I will try to find out more about it), I doubt that something downloaded would be able to integrate itself with the data without specific modification to do so.  As for researching the issue, I only heard about it for the first time when I read this thread.  I was primarily interested in the math involved in testing the hypothosis.  Still, the idea of downloading any software that is so integral to a Lottery's function seems bizzarre to me.  I can understand if someone got information from the web (there are many sites devoted to pure mathematical research in the area of random number generation), but I would certainly be leery of any code that was used "as is" from a website.

                            Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
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                            Posted: June 17, 2005, 10:39 pm - IP Logged

                            I know that robust testing of RNGs (or any complex data set for that matter) would require massive amounts of data, but since the lotteries do not give the public much information, that's the only thing we have to rely on.  Another reason to NOT use computers to conduct drawings.  With lottery balls, you just need to know that they have been carefully weighed and measured (which they do), and the randomness takes care of itself.  Any weirdness in the drawings can then be considered the "strangeness of random occurence", rather than a suspicion of a bad RNG.

                             

                            Check the State Lottery Report Card
                            What grade did your lottery earn?

                             

                            Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                            Help eliminate computerized drawings!