Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 19, 2017, 10:37 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Powerball numbers suspiciously repetitive

Topic closed. 23 replies. Last post 12 years ago by LOTTOMIKE.

Page 2 of 2
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
Lee's Summit, Mo.
United States
Member #6519
August 26, 2004
192 Posts
Offline
Posted: April 19, 2005, 7:29 pm - IP Logged

Someone please answer this.  If a player selects his own PB numbers, what are the odds of his or her hitting one of the white balls.  I figure the odds are slightly more than 10 to 1.  If that is correct, it seems the odds should be the same for having a white ball number repeat from the previous draw.  Is this correct?  I made a cursory count of the last 70 drawings and on 32 occasions there was at least one repeat number from the previous draw.  I'm not a mathematician but it seems to me that this is happening far to often to be random.

    Avatar
    Greenwich, CT
    United States
    Member #4793
    May 24, 2004
    1822 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 19, 2005, 8:19 pm - IP Logged

    Pigskin, you're halfway there!

    You're right, the odds of a specific number repeating are 10:1.

    Last draw: 11-38-44-45-51

    The odds of the #11 repeating are slightly worse than 10:1.  Same for each of the other four digits.  Now you have to consider that there are five numbers drawn, each of which has a 10:1 chance of repeating a number from the previous draw.  If any one of the five numbers drawn matches, we've met our goal.  Five chances at roughly 10:1 odds is comparable to one chance at 2:1 odds. 

    A number should repeat from the previous drawing slightly less than half the time.  32 times out of 70 is right on target with the probability.     

      ineed9million's avatar - scene sunovermountains.jpg
      Philadelphia, PA
      United States
      Member #11436
      February 13, 2005
      176 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 19, 2005, 8:25 pm - IP Logged

      jag, you cant have it both ways.  you say the rate at which the numbers are repeating is "right on target with the probability", but if that is the case then the numbers that have not come up in months are not right on with probability.  We aren't talking a span of 10-20 draws here, we are talking about dozens of draws in some cases. 

        ineed9million's avatar - scene sunovermountains.jpg
        Philadelphia, PA
        United States
        Member #11436
        February 13, 2005
        176 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: April 19, 2005, 8:34 pm - IP Logged

        In addition, # 17 has been drawn 39 times times in the past 3 years.  However, #3 has been drawn 15 times.  Now if each has the same probability of being drawn every WED and SAT for the past 3 years one would think there would not be such a disparity. 

        Another example of this disparity is evident in the red powerball number.  On one hand we have #31 which has been drawn 13 times, and then we have the # 24 which has been drawn just twice. 

          Avatar
          Greenwich, CT
          United States
          Member #4793
          May 24, 2004
          1822 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: April 19, 2005, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

          That post is about numbers repeating the very next draw.  It doesn't focus on individual numbers, like the hot 11 or cold 38.

          You're talking about how many times a certain number hits over 50-100 drawings, right?

            ineed9million's avatar - scene sunovermountains.jpg
            Philadelphia, PA
            United States
            Member #11436
            February 13, 2005
            176 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: April 19, 2005, 8:45 pm - IP Logged

            thats right...its not random.

              Avatar
              Greenwich, CT
              United States
              Member #4793
              May 24, 2004
              1822 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: April 19, 2005, 9:00 pm - IP Logged

              The Red Powerball.

              You've chosen the outliers.  Yes #31 has been drawn 13 times....but it's shown up 38 times in all test and real draws.  #24 has been drawn twice when it counts, but shown up 26 times overall.  The #14 has also shown up only twice....how many times total including test draws? 37.

              I did a quick excel calc of the standard deviation...it came up to 2.50.  On average a Powerball should've shown up 6.29 times since the matrix change on 10/9/02.  2/3 of all PB numbers should've been drawn between roughly 4 and 9 times (I haven't had time to verify that).  In other words, about 28 different PBs will have been drawn between 4 and 9 times.  The other fourteen PBs are acceptable to fall from 0 times to 14 or 15.  Having two numbers drawn only twice and another drawn thirteen is entirely probable, entirely random..and it happened.

              Statistics.

                Avatar
                Greenwich, CT
                United States
                Member #4793
                May 24, 2004
                1822 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: April 19, 2005, 9:37 pm - IP Logged

                33 Powerball numbers have hit between 4 and 9 times inclusive.  On average you should expect 68% of all numbers to fall within one standard deviation, or 29 numbers.  33 works since 4 and 9 are right on the cusp of 1 and 2 standard deviations and so you could count a few of the 4 and 9s as outside 1 standard dev.

                You should expect a few numbers to the low side: 10-14-24-26-27

                                                    and a few to the high side: 2-31-35-41

                If the numbers were always drawn the same number of times, I would highly doubt the randomness of Powerball.

                  LOTTOMIKE's avatar - Lottery-063.jpg
                  Tennessee
                  United States
                  Member #7853
                  October 15, 2004
                  11338 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: May 14, 2005, 4:29 am - IP Logged

                  its more than likely random......