I like Jag's probability analysis on the pick3 pairs, although not complete, still very intuitive. It's unfortunate in Canada we can't play pairs otherwise an excellent strategy could be employed here.
I'll have to look into it a bit or someone else may want to look into it further, but I would think that if you chose a set of pairs like Genius has in his post, say 16 pairs, 8 front and 8 back. Then wait until the Standard Deviation of skipped draws of those pairs hitting becomes equal to or greater than 3 Standard Deviations(99.7% chance). Then, and only then, start playing the pairs until a win. This is a similar strategy which I have played roulette to great success by using the Standard Deviation of a group of numbers before I start to lay bets. I'm definately gonna follow this up.
Anyway, thanks Jag for the idea. Great post bro.
Wow, this thread was at page 2 last time I checked, hehe!
Genius has definitely stirred and shaken things up in Pick-3-ville.
I'm new to Pick 3 so I don't know much about pair betting, etc....but here's my interpretation of Genius' numbers.
He had these as box:
620 - 6 combos
632 - 6
627 - 6
618 - 6
436 - 6
773 - 3
882 - 3
139 - 6
42 combinations listed above, out of 1,000, right? Any combo would make Genius a winner.
Does this mean that 071 could hit, or 607, and that "07" pair would be a winner?
So there would be 20 ways to hit with an '07' pair, not specifying front or back pair:
The same with the other 15 pairs listed above!
So that gives us 320 combinations, plus the 42 from above = 362
There are some duplicates, I'm not sure how to figure that out...although considering a third of the field is in play, I wouldn't expect more than 1/9 to be duplicates. 362 * 8/9 = 321.
Genius stands a 32.1% chance of hitting on any single draw with his picks. A 67.9% chance of not hitting. .679 * .679 (Genius hitting neither NY Evening 5/10 nor NY Midday 5/11) = 46%.
Genius stood a 54% chance of 'hitting' in at least one of the two draws.
I think the math should be real close to accurate. The point is...I don't know if his system works. He had a 1/3 shot of getting it right. Anything can happen on one draw, only a system repeated for months on end will reveal if you're beating the odds.