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Idea for pick3 strategy....

Topic closed. 7 replies. Last post 12 years ago by Paolon.

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Calgary
Canada
Member #9419
December 7, 2004
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Posted: May 11, 2005, 12:46 pm - IP Logged




I like Jag's probability analysis on the pick3 pairs, although not complete, still very intuitive.  It's unfortunate in Canada we can't play pairs otherwise an excellent strategy could be employed here. 

I'll have to look into it a bit or someone else may want to look into it further, but I would think that if you chose a set of pairs like Genius has in his post, say 16 pairs, 8 front and 8 back.  Then wait until the Standard Deviation of skipped draws of those pairs hitting becomes equal to or greater than 3 Standard Deviations(99.7% chance).  Then, and only then, start playing the pairs until a win.  This is a similar strategy which I have played roulette to great success by using the Standard Deviation of a group of numbers before I start to lay bets.  I'm definately gonna follow this up. 

Anyway, thanks Jag for the idea.  Great post bro.   

 

 

 

Wow, this thread was at page 2 last time I checked, hehe!

Genius has definitely stirred and shaken things up in Pick-3-ville.

I'm new to Pick 3 so I don't know much about pair betting, etc....but here's my interpretation of Genius' numbers.

He had these as box:   

620 - 6 combos

632 - 6

627 - 6

618 - 6

436 - 6

773 - 3

882 - 3

139 - 6

42 combinations listed above, out of 1,000, right?  Any combo would make Genius a winner.



Pairs



07, 70

18, 81

29, 92

37, 73

63, 36

67, 76

28, 82

80, 08

Does this mean that 071 could hit, or 607, and that "07" pair would be a winner?

So there would be 20 ways to hit with an '07' pair, not specifying front or back pair:

070,071,072,073,074,075,076,077,078,079,007,107,207,307,407,507,607,707,807,907

The same with the other 15 pairs listed above!

So that gives us 320 combinations, plus the 42 from above = 362

There are some duplicates, I'm not sure how to figure that out...although considering a third of the field is in play, I wouldn't expect more than 1/9 to be duplicates.  362 * 8/9 = 321.

Genius stands a 32.1% chance of hitting on any single draw with his picks.  A 67.9% chance of not hitting.  .679 * .679 (Genius hitting neither NY Evening 5/10 nor NY Midday 5/11) = 46%. 

Genius stood a 54% chance of 'hitting' in at least one of the two draws.

I think the math should be real close to accurate.  The point is...I don't know if his system works.  He had a 1/3 shot of getting it right.  Anything can happen on one draw, only a system repeated for months on end will reveal if you're beating the odds.






Hi everyone, I have an idea for a pick3 strategy/method.  Strangely enough it came from the recent Genius post and from a post Jag had made.  I've also been thinking a lot about using the Standard Deviation of random events to determine lottery results.  I really think that is from where the answer will come and I think I may have it now.......


I assume that the individual probability of any pair, front or back in the pick3 hitting for a given draw is the same, correct.   I don't know the probability of a pair hit?  How many front pairs possible in pick3 is there?  As well, the same is true for the probability of a box hit.  160-1 


Has anyone calculated the probability of a group of boxes to hit after they have not hit for a number of draws?  What I'm thinking is that if we can figure out or know the probability of each individual pair, we should also be able to come up with the standard deviation of when each pair hits in the drawings.  If we know the standard deviation of the skip of all the pairs, we should be able to come up with an excellent strategy based on 3 standard deviations of the skips using a group of pairs. 


Eg.


Let's say that we figured the following out(Just need some time to figure out the actual calculations.)  The following are definately not calculated values:


 Theoretically if all these pairs skipped 12 or more drawings, which was equal to 3 or more Standard Deviations then the chance of one of these pairs showing up in the next draw is very, very high.  3STD=99.7% probability.  If one doesn't show right away, just bet again next draw and the probability is even higher than 99.7%. 


08


65


12


44


97


46


66


33


If anybody would mind helping me out with the task of figuring this out I would defiantely appreciate it.  I think it is defianately worthwhile.  And if not.....does anyone know or have a piece of software that can analyse a set of drawings and be able to count the skips of each and  every front and back pair and box bets.  I can calculate the individual Standard Deviation off that easily enough and should be able to come up with a method of choosing the amount of pairs to play after so many skipped draws based on said Standard Deviations. 


Thanks in advance to anybody that is willing to help.  Really if somebody just has the software to do the counting of each pair and box, that would definately be enough for me to do it. 

Luck is good, but knowing your probability is better!

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    Poway CA (San Diego County)
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    Posted: May 11, 2005, 1:07 pm - IP Logged

    I haven't read all of your post, but I think most of us over time have found that chasing a particular number or statistic is not a smart thing to do.  Ask anyone that has been trying to hit the 49 pair in the California Evening draw!  It has missed like 7 months now!!  Or the 999 in Texas.  It has never hit.  There are a couple of numbers (not doubles or triples) that have never hit in California Day or Evening since they went to a twice a day draw a few years ago. 

    So, if you are going to chase something you have to decide when to start and when you stop.  Not an easy decision.  I have found that people will say they don't play doubles because they don't hit very often.  Well, that is because there are fewer of them.  Same holds true for pure (all odd or all even digits) numbers and all High digits or all Low digits.  The odds are the odds and they are hard to beat.  If there were a way to beat them, the states would not play lotto! 

    Just my 2 cents worth.

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      Calgary
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      Posted: May 11, 2005, 6:31 pm - IP Logged

      So, does anyone know of a piece of software that will analyse the past drawings and list out all the box numbers and their hit positions. That would be great if anybody knew of a program to do it. Otherwise it looks like I'll be doing some fancy Excel work. Thanks.

        BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
        Dump Water Florida
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        Posted: May 12, 2005, 12:59 am - IP Logged

        We are hunters who found food running down the paths to the watering hole and learned to lie in wait.  If you are using the same kind of pattern hunting for lottery numbers, you'll eventually learn they don't come to the watering hole every evening.  There is often a pattern, but is is never so simple you can make a profit at the amounts the lottery pays, they know it too and don't worry about anyone cracking the formula.  It isn't hard to win, numbers like 023, 456, 789 come up fairly regular in florida, but you only break even if you don't have it straight.  BobP



        http://www.lotto-logix.com/keypad.html







         

          LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
          Tx
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          Posted: May 12, 2005, 2:46 am - IP Logged

          Xavier

          On the pick 3 there are 100 possible front pairs, 100 possible back pairs and 100 possible side pairs.

          I myself like to call them, Lth, Rth and side pairs.

          The pairs are from 00 to 99.

          There are 10 decade pairs: 00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90.

          Every decade has one double pair:00 11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99, for a total of 10.

          Every decade has one straight consecutive pair:01 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 90.

          Every decade has one reversed consecutive pair:09 10 21 32 43 54 65 76 87 98.

          There are 90 singles pairs (Not doubles).

          There are all low pairs like: 42.

          All high pairs like 85.

          Mixed High-Low like 28 and 94.

          All even like 28.

          All odd like 91.

          Mixed Even-Odd like 47 and 36.

          ----------------------------------

          There are 45 boxed or any-order SINGLE pairs + the 10 double pairs which are both straight and boxed pairs at the same time.

          So there are 55 boxed or any-order pairs.

          ---------------------------

          So for straight numbers the chances of any one pair coming out on any one pair position is or should be I think 1/100 more or less and maybe about half that more or less for boxed or any-order combos.

          --------------------------------------

          Good luck.

          Fernando.

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            Calgary
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            Posted: May 12, 2005, 11:47 am - IP Logged



            So, does anyone know of a piece of software that will analyse the past drawings and list out all the box numbers and their hit positions. That would be great if anybody knew of a program to do it. Otherwise it looks like I'll be doing some fancy Excel work. Thanks.



            I really, really need the software to do this tedious task.  Plus a way to do the same for the the straight hits as well.  So essentially, I need to be able to get a list of all box combinations, a seperate list of all straight combinations and the skip of each for  every tiem they have hit in a data set.  Thanks in advance of anyone that can help. 

             

            PS - I can do the task of the straight combinations to a certain extent with Ion Salui's Pick3 reporting software but still need a way using software/excel to do it with the box combinations.  If anyone knows a way I can do it in Excel, please let me know.  Thanks.

              LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
              Tx
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              Posted: May 12, 2005, 11:58 am - IP Logged

              Xavier

              Why don't you download and try the Versabet 34, P34Lotto and the Crunch 2 softwares and see if you can use any of them or not, you might need more than just one piece of software.

              There are many of them on the Net, go crazy and download all of them and try them out.

              And or ask Todd, to make something like that for here on this site for online use for gold and or platinum members.

              BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

              "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

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                Greece
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                Posted: May 18, 2005, 8:32 am - IP Logged

                Hi Xavier,



                   

                 



                   

                Probability for a boxed with all the digits different: P3 = 6/1000 = 0.006



                   

                 



                   

                Probability for a boxed with only two digits equal: P2 = 3/1000 = 0.003



                   

                 



                   

                Probability for a boxed with all the digits equal: P1 = 1/1000 = 0.001



                   

                 



                   

                How do we calculate the standard deviations for the above boxed combinations?



                   

                Can you give us the formula for the standard deviation?