Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 19, 2017, 5:39 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Follow-up to reducing 90,000 combinations

Topic closed. 11 replies. Last post 12 years ago by SHTh.

Page 1 of 1
PrintE-mailLink
SHTh's avatar - baby

United States
Member #1959
August 1, 2003
42 Posts
Offline
Posted: June 24, 2005, 10:10 am - IP Logged

An update for those forum members kind enough to post suggestions.
 
Approx 3/4 weeks ago during continual experimentation, I realised I’d made a near fatal error, in my interpretation of statistical data for one of the UK 6/49 parameters. Which ultimately meant that to produce the same 7 jackpot wins each year I would have to generate a wheel with between 350,000- 500,000 combinations.
 
My original 90,000 combinations generated using the original filtering criteria including the erroneous criteria setting, would only have produced 4 Jackpot wins last year.
 
It immediately became pretty obvious that if I was to continue my pursuit of trying to reduce either wheel combinations to a reasonable playing budget, I would definitely have no shot at the jackpot prize and would waste my money in the process.
 
I nearly gave up there and then.
 
When I reassessed my situation, I saw that all was not lost. I could still use the same set of criteria & rules including the corrected setting, which generated 350,000- 500,000 combinations. But if I included more predictive systems for example to eliminate even more numbers in the original pool. I could drastically reduce the combinations down to 50,000-100,000.
 
So I’m back where I started but on much much dodgier ground.
 
(I can’t back test this new approach on the UK history, since the predictive elements of the wheel generator are subjective as opposed to following set rules. I still start with 7 wins last year, since fixed and date dependant filters are the same, but I have no way of knowing which draws I would have made bad predictions on.)
 
I have now restarted the drypaper runs. Results are still as promising but there is the increased risk of missing my jackpot because my predictions fail on the crucial draw. I’ve lost most of my original enthusiasm even with the purchase of a superfast number cruncher, mainly because I now have to rely to a greater extent on my predictive abilities, on a lottery that is truly random & independent and has virtually no biases.
 
I am now in the process of developing my predictive skills/strategies for the UK 6/49 so they will be reliable; and continue hypothesising and experimenting to reduce my wheel combinations down.
 
 
And finally……
 
In terms of your suggestions and my own ideas, I kicked around quite a few. But nearly all require sacrificing draws, this is not acceptable to me. I do hope that your suggestions are of some use to other forum members.
 
Lottoarchitect & ROJH’s theories on limiting/eliminating certain trebles seem promising. My earlier set-backs mean I still have to develop and test strategies for their idea.
 
A huge thanks to:
Lottoarchitect
JKing
RJOh
NewClub

And I hope I may call on your advice again in my hour of need.
 
 
 
 
 


 
 
 
Footnotes                  .
 I’ve tighten one filter pass so filtering criteria now produces approx 7 instead of 8 jackpot wins a year.
 Hint= not all 6/49 lotteries are equal despite what certain Lottery Gurus may claim.

    SHTh's avatar - baby

    United States
    Member #1959
    August 1, 2003
    42 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: June 29, 2005, 11:09 am - IP Logged

    >>>I’ve lost most of my original enthusiasm mainly because I now have to rely to a greater extent on my predictive abilities, on a lottery that is truly random & independent and has virtually no biases

    6 days later, and I am even more disheartened….
     
    An off-site discussion/thoughts about ‘unlikely combinations’ having as much chance as any other combination. In conjunction with accidentally coming across archive statements by peer recognized playing experts on the nature of the UK 6/49 in comparison to some other lotteries (confirming what I have always known). Has made me despair of even attempting to crack the UK lottery.
     
    I have some original thoughts about levels of independence (randomness). I wish to put forward a simple hypothesis.
     
    A truly random lottery with virtually no trending/bias/flaws/anomalies is very bad for prediction strategies, but great for filtering experts since parameters on a draw by draw basis are more likely to follow a normal population distribution.

    Could any long-time pick 6 players and//or gurus tell me if I am thinking along the right lines? My hypothesis if correct will spur me on, if incorrect I think I will give up on my quest to win the UK jackpot and invest in the hind leg of a racehorse.

      LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
      Tx
      United States
      Member #4570
      May 4, 2004
      5180 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: June 29, 2005, 12:04 pm - IP Logged

      A truly random lottery with virtually no trending/bias/flaws/anomalies is very bad for prediction strategies, but great for filtering experts since parameters on a draw by draw basis are more likely to follow a normal population distribution.

      I am not a jackpot game player myself yet and I am no expert at all, but from my brief studies of the history of jackpot games and from my pick 3 sudies, I think that you might be right, but no matter what, there is no such thing as unbiased or unpatterned random, by the very nature of random there will always be statistical patterns and statistical distributions of patterns, the game's structure and the nature of random events will make sure that there will be statistical patterns of some kind or other, as a matter of fact every particular statistic INSPECTED will show patterns and percent of patterns related of course to that particular statistic, there is no getting away from that at all, it's the nature of numbers to have statistics related to them and not just numbers, symbols or symbolic patterns also have stastistics, statistics means patterns and that means biases or statistics (same thing) according to random distribution.

      Anyhow, what do I know ? I have no idea of what I am talking about.

      Good luck.

      But if you ever find a good way of getting the winning number that is not too complicated for me to learn and use, I am all ears as they say.

      Fernando.

      BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

      "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

        SHTh's avatar - baby

        United States
        Member #1959
        August 1, 2003
        42 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: July 2, 2005, 11:28 am - IP Logged
        Thanks for everyone’s input so far. I hope with a lot of brainstorming and a little discussion we can all discover a little bit more. What I learnt since my last visit to this forum is that ‘Traditional filtering’ does not provide some magical recipe to the winning jackpot ticket. If you do select all the right parameters you still have to beat the probabilities within that subdivision of population.
         
        As to my hypothesis that brought me to the brink of despair. Well read on…..
         
        The following brilliant advice and explanation was originally a private correspondence from CDEX of Lottery Director Software. But the explanation is very educating, so I obtained permission from the author to post it here. I’m sure it will help and guide many lottery players out there. It’s a mini-tutorial in itself!!!
         

        Hi SHTH,

        In your message:

        >>>>
        A truly random lottery with virtually no trending/bias/flaws/anomalies is very bad for prediction strategies, but great for filtering experts since parameters on a draw by draw basis are more likely to follow a normal population distribution.
        <<<<

        You have it there, properly formed and well stated. There isn't any "prediction" value beyond normal expectation. It's just a hope (that's the proper word) to catch the game's next drawing inside some statistical category. A particular category (e.g. some range of Sums, Even/Odd split, etc) is likely to win only according to the size of the population of combinations which fit into that category -- no more, no less.

        In better words ... Some 6/49 combination having a Sum in the range of (say) 149-151 is more likely to win than one having a Sum in the range of (say) 29-31 simply ..and only.. because there are more combinations in that range. However any individual combination is just as likely to win as any other individual combination -- so the odds stay the same.

        Example:

        Take a simplistic game of 10 numbers, 1...10.

        Divide it into two parts: numbers 1 and 2, and numbers 3...10.

        (The first part has 2 numbers; the other part has 8 numbers.)

        The game will draw just one winning number.

        The chance that the winning number will come from the second group (8 numbers) is greater than the chance that it will come from the first group (2 numbers).

        The odds of getting the _right_ number, however, are exactly the same:

        (2 * 0.5) = (8 * 0.125)

        ... So, there is not any "better chance of winning" based on playing either group.

        One group wins more often, but there are more numbers in that group to choose from -- so when that happens, your chance of getting the actual number is less.

        The other group wins less often, but there are fewer numbers to choose from -- so when that happens, your chance of getting the actual number is greater.

        The only way to have "more winning chances" is to play more combinations, at the resulting higher cost.


        Filtering is not a "prediction" tool (there are not prediction tools). It is simply a way to focus your choice of combinations in such a way that, if you are lucky enough to be right, you will have concentrated your limited budget to cover as many combinations as possible in that category.

        CDEX of Lottery Director Software.
         

         

          LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
          Tx
          United States
          Member #4570
          May 4, 2004
          5180 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 2, 2005, 10:05 pm - IP Logged

          Well, that shows you that there are very few True filter experts, Not every lottery expert really knows filters, they might know about some filters, but they don't know filters.

          But as always don't take my word for anything, I might be wrong.

          Good luck.

          Also as I said before, you don't predict, you guess, it might be an acurate guess or not, but a guess just the same.

          BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

          "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

            LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
            Tx
            United States
            Member #4570
            May 4, 2004
            5180 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: July 2, 2005, 10:41 pm - IP Logged

            Also as I said before, some forms of math can sometimes be a handycap to some people.

            Their knowledge of random is restricted to their knowledge of math or of what math tells them about random.

            On the other hand, I think that is best to let the past winning draws teach you about random for that particular lottery game, but again many or most people for some reason are unable to SEE random and not so random patterns.

            Their loss, I think, to each his own.

            Good luck.

            BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

            "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

              JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

              United States
              Member #5599
              July 13, 2004
              1192 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: July 4, 2005, 8:09 am - IP Logged

              Everyone has their own opinion. But for me, straight numerical analysis is only going to get you part of the way. I use it to eliminate what I call dumb bets (possible, but highly improbable occurrences).  I would suggest you apply your math skills to the dynamics of the lotto...history, occurrences....etc.  Even though it is not exact, it should put you more in the ballpark.

              This is probably a bad analogy....Straight numerical analysis is like knowing what the average rainfall is going to be for the year. But not knowing when it's gong to fall. By tracking the the rainfall, you may not know the exact day, but you will be able to know the peak months it will fall in.

              You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

              Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

                solidsnake1626's avatar - abstract
                New Member
                los angeles
                United States
                Member #17879
                June 29, 2005
                3 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: July 4, 2005, 11:31 pm - IP Logged

                I am new to the lottery post, the past week i have been experimenting with the abbreviated and full wheels. It seems that when i use past drawing results to predict a certain drawing combination, i fail miserably because some weird combinations of numbers come up like 3 consecutive numbers, or decades, or 4 odd numbers, in my humble OPINION, i believe that the ppl who run the lottery gather all the numbers played for a certain day, and pick the combination that will generate the most profit for them, this is just my opinion, and it may be repetitive, i am new to the post once again..... , please respond to this, i am open to new thoughts    Lurking

                           

                  LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                  Tx
                  United States
                  Member #4570
                  May 4, 2004
                  5180 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: July 4, 2005, 11:53 pm - IP Logged

                  We have been thru this many times, nobody has yet proved that the state lotteries cheat. That does not mean that they don't, just that they haven't been caught yet.

                  BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                  "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                    SHTh's avatar - baby

                    United States
                    Member #1959
                    August 1, 2003
                    42 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: July 5, 2005, 11:48 am - IP Logged

                    LANTERN

                    I just want to counter just one thing you said. I think a player should really be aware of the odds if they want to take filtering seriously and not lose a lot of money in the process.

                    Probably another bad analogy but you can play poker for fun and amusement, but if you start playing seriously or competitively (however small the stakes) you need to be aware of the odds.
                      LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                      Tx
                      United States
                      Member #4570
                      May 4, 2004
                      5180 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: July 5, 2005, 1:30 pm - IP Logged
                      Fri, Jul 1, 2005  14-25-41-42-50, Mega Ball: 40
                      Tue, Jun 28, 2005  02-20-37-43-46, Mega Ball: 04
                      Fri, Jun 24, 2005  14-43-44-50-56, Mega Ball: 07
                      Tue, Jun 21, 2005  09-13-40-46-50, Mega Ball: 30
                      Fri, Jun 17, 2005  16-35-40-49-50, Mega Ball: 34
                      Tue, Jun 14, 2005  01-10-29-48-49, Mega Ball: 36
                      Fri, Jun 10, 2005  14-29-31-37-50, Mega Ball: 34
                      Tue, Jun 7, 2005  07-14-28-46-47, Mega Ball: 25
                      Fri, Jun 3, 2005  04-06-14-28-47, Mega Ball: 42
                      Tue, May 31, 2005   05-13-22-37-38, Mega Ball: 11

                       

                      Forget about math, let the past draws guide you.

                      From the above, use only combos that have from 3 to 4 different decades.

                      Use combos that have a given mix of low and high (be specific as to the mix more or less)(last single digit and also another such filter for the whole number ), but not all high only and not all low only.

                      Use combos that have a given mix of even and odd (be specific as to the mix more or less)(last single digit), but not all even only and not all odd only.

                      Use only combos that are between given upper and lower sum limits.

                      Don't use combos that have numbers where all of them are consecutives for the whole number and the same apply to combos that are consec for just the last single digit of the numbers.

                      These are just a few of the most maybe common filters, but there are more, as I said forget about math and use common sense and the past draws as your guides, just the few above filters, don't they eliminate already quite a few combos ? And there are more of them that can be used.

                      Will the above filters eliminate winning combos ? Take a look at the last few past draws, they tell you that the filters should work O.K. most or all of the time.

                      Who says that filters can't improve your odds? They can, if you know what to use, for what and when.

                      Good luck.

                      By the way some of the above filters can be maybe made more specific (I can't spell).

                      Those are only a few filters and of course they will not get rid of all the bad combos, but as I said there are many more of them and besides you should not use a full wheel with all the possible numbers in  it to filter out, but a wheel or wheels made of only a given percent of the total numbers or wheels made of relatively small groups of numbers and then use filters such as the above and more to filter them out some.

                      Take into account that so far I am not a jackpot game player myself, so I know relatively little about jackpot game filters and what little I know I am not about to tell you all about since you share prizes on those games.

                      I might know a little more about pick 3 and pick 4 filters, but I have told you all more than enough about that on other posts, but never will tell everything on that either.

                      Good luck to all.

                      By the way, I am aware of the odds on jackpot games. Why do you think that I don't play them very often so far? The odds are very bad, I said so many times before on other posts.

                       

                      BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                      "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                        SHTh's avatar - baby

                        United States
                        Member #1959
                        August 1, 2003
                        42 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: July 10, 2005, 11:19 am - IP Logged

                        Lantern,

                        Just a newbie opinion, but I believe a lottery player should be allowed to decide for themselves if knowing and/or use of the odds will be beneficial or a hindrance.

                        I’m sure the majority of lottery players who filter would agree that extensive analysis of the draw history provides crucial information that can be used to develop filtering criteria and strategy. But for me personally the additional knowledge of the probabilities has helped in i) Eliminating extremes of specific populations confidently.

                        ii) Eliminating patterns oddities that are difficult to determine when analysing the draw history because either the data is difficult to correlate, or is not evident during analysis of the history or the raw draw history is still too small to make reliable conclusions on certain patterns.

                        iii) Extras ideas, theories and tips for filtering criteria that even brainstorming and lateral thinking would not have thought of.

                        iv) To understand the 6/49 lottery, and why we get certain population distributions and statistics, and why patterns/events happen at different frequencies than others (knowledge is power).

                        v) To determine if a particular game is within the limits of expected performance statistically and potentially exploit this information.

                        I just believe the more knowledge the better. Anyway if maths is a handicap to some players, I’m presuming a lot of the sophisticated software nowadays does most of the calculations and comparisons (& thinking) for you ie. actual vs expected probabilities.

                        Lantern I’m so happy that you are aware of the odds of Jackpot games, so choose to concentrate your effects on pick3 & pick 4. Since some lottery players do not have the luxury of pick3, pick 4 games, we have no choice but to play the pick6 and Jackpot only games.

                        This is my final word on this ‘knowing the odds or not’ discusion, everyone should be allowed to develop their own methods and opinions, not be dictated to. Let’s not make this a diversory issue. I wish to concentrate my limited energies & resources on other aspects of the lottery game, that and the evolving threat of terrorist actions on mainland Britain…

                        9 years hunter, 17 weeks trapper. While the pursuits of hunting and trapping may be contiguous activities the ideology and actions involved are easily distinguishable.