Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 18, 2017, 3:03 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

SHTH dilemma 2: Poll- The Coin Tosser

Topic closed. 7 replies. Last post 11 years ago by CASH Only.

Page 1 of 1
PrintE-mailLink

See below for Poll question

stake $3000 on heads [ 2 ]  [25.00%]
stake $3000 on tails [ 2 ]  [25.00%]
decline the bet. [ 4 ]  [50.00%]
Total Valid Votes [ 8 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 0 ]  
SHTh's avatar - baby

United States
Member #1959
August 1, 2003
42 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 10, 2005, 10:53 am - IP Logged

Poll Question
A professional roulette dealer tosses the same coin 7 times in a clinical environment. All 7 times the coin has landed on heads. You are offered the opportunity to bet $3,000 on the outcome of the next toss where you will win 2 times your stake if you guess correctly ($6,000 net profit), but if you guess incorrectly you lose your stake. Since this experiment is taking place in a clinical environment, the coin tosser will receive no indication or signal that you will place a bet on the 8th throw.
 
Your 3 options
1) stake $3000 on heads
2)stake $3000 on tails
3)decline the bet.
 
 


PS. As always this dilemma is inspired while researching archives. Reading past newsgroup lottery articles there have been many great debates involving mathematicians who rightly or wrongly like to incorporate the tossing coin scenario to further their arguments. This poll was conceived of prior to the horrific events of Thursday 7th July 2005.

    SHTh's avatar - baby

    United States
    Member #1959
    August 1, 2003
    42 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: July 10, 2005, 10:54 am - IP Logged

    I’m hypothesising the first two options are a small indication of the type of lottery player you are, preferring to go with the trend or more mentally geared to playing the overdues.
     
    Option3 not sure what type of player that indicates. Doesn’t like seemingly freaky mathematical events? Timid/Bad decision maker? Religious reasons!?
     
    Would you have voted the same way if the coin tosser had been a mechanical device?

    9 years hunter, 17 weeks trapper. While the pursuits of hunting and trapping may be contiguous activities the ideology and actions involved are easily distinguishable.

      Avatar

      United States
      Member #3291
      January 8, 2004
      71 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: July 10, 2005, 11:27 am - IP Logged

      Poll Question
      A professional roulette dealer tosses the same coin 7 times in a clinical environment. All 7 times the coin has landed on heads. You are offered the opportunity to bet $3,000 on the outcome of the next toss where you will win 2 times your stake if you guess correctly ($6,000 net profit), but if you guess incorrectly you lose your stake. Since this experiment is taking place in a clinical environment, the coin tosser will receive no indication or signal that you will place a bet on the 8th throw.
       
      Your 3 options
      1) stake $3000 on heads
      2)stake $3000 on tails
      3)decline the bet.
       
       


      PS. As always this dilemma is inspired while researching archives. Reading past newsgroup lottery articles there have been many great debates involving mathematicians who rightly or wrongly like to incorporate the tossing coin scenario to further their arguments. This poll was conceived of prior to the horrific events of Thursday 7th July 2005.

      you know this is kind of funny because i was watching a show on  "sucker bets" on the history channel or the travel channel the other day and something similar like this was brought up.  I rarely go into casinos but i guess in many casinos now, by the roulette table they have a computer screen that shows what has come up in the past 15 or so turns.. 
      they called this "the greatest scheme because there is absolutely no correlation between the last toss and the next toss"
      and that what ever terminology someone uses to justify their reason for picking a certain number to come next would be wrong and that the screen causes sucker bets.
      but anyhow i'm sure people would disagree..  for my vote.. i'd choose 3 :)  because  i was always told only gamble what you can afford to lose, and i deffinately can't afford to lose $3000 :)

      <Shameless self promotion :)>. Want to get an Edge in Mega Millions ? Try Mega Lotto Assistant. Coded by yours truly. </Shameless self promotion>


        United States
        Member #17555
        June 22, 2005
        5582 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: July 10, 2005, 11:31 am - IP Logged

        The following is an excerpt from a mathematician concerning randomness:

        "Upon the first presentation of my discovery which we will refer to as "Random number

        displacement"...or...RND, for brevity, the old belief, which is still the accepted rule of

        random numbers by most students, was supposed to show that regardless of what

        happened in the past (results), it would have no bearing on the future. In other words

        ...if a coin was flipped 10 times and heads came up 10 times, then the odds of heads

        showing on the 11th toss were the same as the first toss. It was this accepted belief

        which I know is wrong, which caused me to question the other accepted belief

        regarding random numbers.

        The above law is not correct since even chances are so seldom one sided as to

        ten to one. If there is a 50/50 chance something will occur and after 10 occurences

        only one thing has occured. the odds are not still 50/50! The odds climb continuallly

        against the same occurence happening.

        But the accepted law is correct if you start the first time each time, but not if you toss

        the coin repeatedly. But since you do not do anything only once the accepted law is not

        right. You do not only play one hand of blackjack in your whole life. Or make only

        one bet on a horse or dog, or only bet once on keno or a football game.

        To wager means....to bet in a continuous fashion on a certain game or games.

        You never make one bet and then quit the rest of your life. It does not matter

        that you make your bets days or weeks apart or from weekend to weekend.

        or month to month. You bet continuously. To make more than one bet....is when

        the accepted law cannot be applied.

        Now consider this. If any game of chance which is played more than one time does

        not follow the rule of odds, like it is supposed to when only one bet is made.....how can

        subsequent results (bets) be also ruled by that one occurence rule? How can you say

        the odds of tossing a coin and catching heads 10 times in a row is the same as tossing

        that coin once and getting heads. You can't! Just try and see how hard it is to have

        one side of a coin come up even three or four times in a row....but yet we are told

        the odds are the same.

        All this leads us to only one conclusion...what has happened has as much influence

        on what will happen...and games of chance do not have series of events which are

        unconnected to what occured before and after any individual event.

        In other words a "random number" is not truly random unless there is no past

        results to define the event. This would mean only the very first occurence is the

        number or event truly "random"!

          four4me's avatar - gate1
          MD
          United States
          Member #1701
          June 18, 2003
          8392 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 10, 2005, 11:43 am - IP Logged

          I voted to decline the bet. In theroy i have 3 grand. There is a 50/50 chance on a coin toss of it being either heads or tails. Now if the bet was 1/2 the total amount ie 1,500 double or nothing i would take tails for the 8th toss.

          Now back to lottery.... the numbers favor hot and lukewarm with the longest number out being the most likley to appears at some point. hence the cold numbers have to be drawn at some point in time. Here in Maryland the number 9 hasen't been drawn in the first position in weeks. Like 107 draws out. So i might play various combinations of the numbers. Using the most frequently drawn pais with it. 

            fast eddie's avatar - lasvegas2
            Chicago,IL.
            United States
            Member #2902
            November 29, 2003
            1435 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: July 10, 2005, 11:43 am - IP Logged

            Always go with the trend.............Their might be an unfair advantage as to why the coin has come up heads 7 times in a row. In roulette you oculd have a basis wheel, so maybe you have a basis coin that is deformed or weighs slightly different on the head side. So always go with the trend till you see different atleast once.

            "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned"


              United States
              Member #379
              June 5, 2002
              11296 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: July 29, 2005, 4:12 pm - IP Logged

              If I flip a coin, it will end up on its edge.


                United States
                Member #379
                June 5, 2002
                11296 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: July 30, 2005, 12:45 pm - IP Logged

                Coffee