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Is this good or bad?

Topic closed. 8 replies. Last post 11 years ago by RJOh.

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paurths's avatar - underground
Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
Belgium
Member #19287
July 29, 2005
2254 Posts
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Posted: August 13, 2005, 4:32 pm - IP Logged

Hi,

i was wondering what you would think of a "system" (not really, i'll explain later on) that achieves the following "average":

For Lotto 6/42 (0, 1 and 2 is no win, 3, 4, 5 and 6 wins)
"Predicting" (not, as you will read later on) 8 to 10 numbers per draw.
Tested on 706 drawings;
0 numbers correct : 125 times
1 number correct : 267 times
2 numbers correct : 205 times
3 numbers correct : 91 times
4 numbers correct : 15 times
5 numbers correct : 2 times
All 6 correct : 1 time

Honestly?
To me they don't seem very good. 'tho Not so bad either, considering the jackpot-hit.
In the tests i did i used the friday-evening numbers and compared to the following drawings in Belgian lotto. (saturday & wednesday)

It gets better.

Further on in the test, i noticed that a lot of numbers in de Super7 just missed the actual balls in 6/42 with a value of one. (consecutive, sort to speek). So i "expanded" the test by adding for each # of the Super7 the proceeding and following (is this correct?) number to test on.
Sometimes this would mean i would be testing some 30 numbers, which would definitely not be good. So i put in a maximum reachable amount of 24 numbers. (In lots of cases the maximum amount of numbers did not go above 17, due to consecutive #'s in Super7 and also b/c their numbers go from 1 to 47, in Belgian lotto from 1 to 42)

These were the results:
"Not Predicting" 14 to 24 numbers per draw.
Tested on 706 drawings;
0 numbers correct : 4 times
1 number correct : 43 times
2 numbers correct : 84 times
3 numbers correct : 192 times
4 numbers correct : 178 times
5 numbers correct : 138 times
All 6 correct : 49 times
All 7 (with powerball) : 18 times.

(Since july 15th 2005, a good month, 2 times 6 came up and 2 times 7.)

Do you consider these bad / good / excellent averages?

lasas3

An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

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    Fergus
    Canada
    Member #5532
    July 9, 2004
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    Posted: August 13, 2005, 5:10 pm - IP Logged

     

     

    Went to the link Nothing there but the BC lottery site.

      paurths's avatar - underground
      Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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      Posted: August 13, 2005, 5:15 pm - IP Logged

       

       

      Went to the link Nothing there but the BC lottery site.

      That's correct.
      What do you think about the averages i posted?

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
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        Posted: August 13, 2005, 5:34 pm - IP Logged

        paurth wrote:

        Hi,
        i was wondering what you would think of a "system" (not really, i'll explain later on) that achieves the following "average":.........................

        Honestly?
        To me they don't seem very good. 'tho Not so bad either, considering the jackpot-hit.

        Hang in there, you'll find what you're looking for.
        RJOh

         

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          paurths's avatar - underground
          Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
          Belgium
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          Posted: August 13, 2005, 5:48 pm - IP Logged

          paurth wrote:

          Hi,
          i was wondering what you would think of a "system" (not really, i'll explain later on) that achieves the following "average":.........................

          Honestly?
          To me they don't seem very good. 'tho Not so bad either, considering the jackpot-hit.

          Hang in there, you'll find what you're looking for.
          RJOh

           

          Have you read the entire post? (the second test?)

            LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
            Tx
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            May 4, 2004
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            Posted: August 13, 2005, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

            Only way to know would be to compute total ammount won minus total cost of tickets.

            Is there a profit in the end ? How much ? And in what lenght of playing time ?

            Good luck.

              paurths's avatar - underground
              Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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              Posted: August 13, 2005, 7:43 pm - IP Logged

              Only way to know would be to compute total ammount won minus total cost of tickets.

              Is there a profit in the end ? How much ? And in what lenght of playing time ?

              Good luck.

              True, very true.

              But look at it this way;
              Let a person (or several persons) pick per drawing 14 to 24 numbers.
              This repeated for 706 drawings.

              The question is, will they match the averages i showed? Will they exceed them or will they stay below?

              Tested on 706 drawings;
              0 numbers correct : 4 times
              1 number correct : 43 times
              2 numbers correct : 84 times
              3 numbers correct : 192 times
              4 numbers correct : 178 times
              5 numbers correct : 138 times
              All 6 correct : 49 times
              All 7 (with powerball) : 18 times.

                lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

                Greece
                Member #2815
                November 18, 2003
                502 Posts
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                Posted: August 13, 2005, 10:58 pm - IP Logged

                Hi paurths, for reference, have a look here.

                Assume we pick 20 numbers each time. Based on this analysis, we have a=6, b=42, n=20

                bCa=42C6=5245786

                m=0 hits in 706 draws -> [ 20C0 * (42-20)C(6-0) / bCa ] * 706 = 10 times

                m=1 hits in 706 draws -> [ 20C1 * (42-20)C(6-1) / bCa ] * 706 = 70.8 times

                m=2 hits in 706 draws -> [ 20C2 * (42-20)C(6-2) / bCa ] * 706 = 187 times

                m=3 hits in 706 draws -> [ 20C3 * (42-20)C(6-3) / bCa ] * 706 = 236.27 times

                m=4 hits in 706 draws -> [ 20C4 * (42-20)C(6-4) / bCa ] * 706 = 150 times

                m=5 hits in 706 draws -> [ 20C5 * (42-20)C(6-5) / bCa ] * 706 = 46 times

                m=6 hits in 706 draws -> [ 20C6 * (42-20)C(6-6) / bCa ] * 706 = 5.2 times

                The above is the classic probability to hit in each category in 706 draws when selecting 20 numbers each time. Now, you say

                Tested on 706 drawings;
                0 numbers correct : 4 times (CProb: 10)
                1 number correct : 43 times (CProb: 70.8)
                2 numbers correct : 84 times (CProb: 187)
                3 numbers correct : 192 times (CProb: 236.27)
                4 numbers correct : 178 times (CProb: 150)
                5 numbers correct : 138 times (CProb: 46)
                All 6 correct : 49 times (CProb: 5.2)

                It does look a very good boost to me in higher divisions but to be directly comparable, you have to pick a constant amount of numbers (20 here). You can adapt the maths to suit your needs.

                regards

                lottoarchitect

                If you have something to do, at least do it well...

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
                  Member #9
                  March 24, 2001
                  19830 Posts
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                  Posted: August 14, 2005, 4:27 pm - IP Logged

                  I agree with LANTERN, if you're winning more than your tickets cost then it's a good thing.  If you're not buying any tickets then you're just having a good dream.

                  Good luck.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking