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Smash the MM odds...it is easy!

Topic closed. 33 replies. Last post 11 years ago by Raven62.

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Think's avatar - lightbulb
Marquette, MI
United States
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August 20, 2005
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Posted: August 21, 2005, 11:44 am - IP Logged

 

Konformthismfs says

"One more thing, if you play the MM for the jackpot and you think you might have found an edge, why would you write the MM and let them know? lmao"

Easy, I dont want the big money players to have a true advantage.  I cant afford to spend that much money per draw!!!

RJOh says

"If you play to win the MegaMillions jackpot then your odds are 1:175,711,536 per ticket regardless of the number of tickets you buy. There are 175,711,536 possible combinations and 4,405,086 of them will win something from $2 to the jackpot so that leaves 171,306,450 combinations that will win nothing at all.  That's a little different than your figures."

Are you arguing just to argue?  Think about how many people win second prize on each draw and think what would have happened if they had spent $45 more and bought all 46 megaballs!  1 to 10 or more people would be winning the jackpot on almost every draw.  I believe there has been only one draw so far where nobody has won second prize!

The odds of winning second are 5 of 56 or 3,819,816 to 1 you multiply that by 46 megaballs and you have 175,711,536 to 1. If you buy all 46 megaballs with the same set of 5 numbers you get rid of the multiplier and you reduce your odds to that of winning second place or 3,819,816 to 1. That is a real simple lever!  I dont understand how you could not understand that.

This is a true flaw because it gives a true and large  edge to people who can spend $46, or multiples thereof, per draw!

 

I have not fully explored this site yet but I bet Todd has something on here that explains wheeling versus levering and what they both do.  I dont even want to open the Pandoras box of trying to explain to YOU levering x/xx (5/39, 6/49, etc.) games.  Besides I bet Todd already has something on here that explains it...I will have to fully check out the site before I post more.

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    Morrison, IL
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    May 13, 2004
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    Posted: August 21, 2005, 12:53 pm - IP Logged

      Think, out of what, 18 million tickets sold, there's normally only four or five second place winners.  I highly doubt that's a concern for "big spenders" having an edge in winning the jackpot.

      Bradly_60's avatar - disney37
      Atlantic Mine, Michigan
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      Posted: August 21, 2005, 1:21 pm - IP Logged

      Lotteries know that this game isn't has hard as it seems to win.  They should just make tickets $46 each and have the odds of winning the jackpot 1 in less than 4 million.  There are probably 4 million players out there in the MM states that could afford the $46....talk about a lottery pool there hey....haha...that seems like the logical way of playing the game.  But the lotteries know that peole are not going to spend that much money on tickets.  I don't think it is a lot but the "go to the store to grab a gallon of milk and buy a single ticket or two and win" are in very large numbers out there.  The most I heard anyone spend on one of the big Games was $6,000.  There was a news story in Wisconsin when the jackpot was really big.  Now just buy the 46 tickets and sometime in the next 4,000,000 draws I should win.  haha

      Brad

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        Blaine WA
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        Posted: August 21, 2005, 3:22 pm - IP Logged

        how much time would it take a player to purchase enough tickets to give them a chance at winning and how long would it take to check them.

        so if you formed a pool what would the timing numbers be then

        and then the verifying the honesty of the other pool members

        the odds do not mean much to those who win the jackpot


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          December 12, 2004
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          Posted: August 21, 2005, 3:29 pm - IP Logged

          you can possibly cut those odds down,like eliminate 12345,678910,etc.

          in powerball,you can play a pb #,and ask for whiteball qp's,but in megamillions in  massachuesetts,you can only ask for a qp,and it gives you the mb,and white balls,it doesn't give you a choice of either or,why? 

            Bradly_60's avatar - disney37
            Atlantic Mine, Michigan
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            Posted: August 21, 2005, 4:06 pm - IP Logged

            That would be up to the lottery.  In Michigan we can do that.  We can quick pick the white balls and use our own Mega Ball.  well i know we used to but I don't think they have changed anything like that.  You should be able to do it that way. 

            Brad

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              Sparta, NJ
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              July 9, 2005
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              Posted: August 21, 2005, 5:00 pm - IP Logged

              In NY, for MM, you can chose either and/or QP either. In NJ, for MM, it's all QP or all or selection. In PA, for PB, it is all QP or all selection.

              Cheers

              |||::> *'`*:-.,_,.-:*''*:--->>> Chewie  <<<---.*''*:-.,_,.-:*''* <:::|||

              I only trust myself - and that's a questionable choice

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
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                Posted: August 21, 2005, 6:27 pm - IP Logged

                Ohio MegaMillions card has  two QP slots, one for the five core numbers and one for the megaball.  Both have to be checked to QP both sets of numbers.  When I play PowerBall in Indiana, the instructions on the cards says if I check the QP slot the machine will pick any numbers not picked, thus I mark what I want and use QP to chose the rest.

                RJOh 

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

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                  New Mexico
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                  Posted: August 22, 2005, 10:17 pm - IP Logged

                  That's also how PB is in NM.  If you fill in 3 numbers and check QP the machine will take your picks and add the rest.

                  Jack

                  Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                  It's about number behavior.

                  Egos don't count.

                   

                  Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

                   

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                    Greenwich, CT
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                    May 24, 2004
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                    Posted: August 25, 2005, 11:49 am - IP Logged

                    That's also how PB is in NM.  If you fill in 3 numbers and check QP the machine will take your picks and add the rest.

                    Jack

                    It's a great way to play Key/Banker and Random numbers together.

                    Just ignore the quizzical look from the clerk when you ask to run the same playslip through five times!

                      Bradly_60's avatar - disney37
                      Atlantic Mine, Michigan
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                      Posted: August 25, 2005, 11:53 am - IP Logged

                      haha....i hear you on that one.  I have asked clerks to run slips through a couple times and they are always like huh? until I explain what I am doing.

                      Brad

                        bbjbb's avatar - stone face.jpg
                        Annapolis, MD
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                        Posted: August 25, 2005, 10:01 pm - IP Logged

                        Hey, as long as we're dreaming, why not say we have four whiteballs and the mega-ball...then all we'd need is that combination with the other 52 whiteballs...so for $52, we can reduce our odds to one in 689,065. So for a $52 ticket, you can win it all with the odds of 1 in 689,065!....not bad!

                        And believe me, if I thought we knew we had four regular numbers & the mega-ball, I'd play the 52 other combinations.

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                          Greenwich, CT
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                          Posted: August 26, 2005, 10:40 am - IP Logged

                          Hey, as long as we're dreaming, why not say we have four whiteballs and the mega-ball...then all we'd need is that combination with the other 52 whiteballs...so for $52, we can reduce our odds to one in 689,065. So for a $52 ticket, you can win it all with the odds of 1 in 689,065!....not bad!

                          And believe me, if I thought we knew we had four regular numbers & the mega-ball, I'd play the 52 other combinations.

                          I don't want to burst your bubble...but by buying 52 different tickets, your odds of winning are 1 in 3,379,068. 

                          I see how you figured the 1 in 689,065....but there's more than one way to match 4 + 1.  Say the winning white ball numbers are 1-2-3-4-5 and you've matched the MB.  You could do it 1-2-3-4 (plus the other 52 white balls)...1-2-3-5...1-2-4-5...1-3-4-5...2-3-4-5.  There are 260 ways to match at least 4+1...255 ways to match just 4+1 without hitting the jackpot.  175,711,536 divided by 255 gives you the odds of 1 in 689,065.

                          Sadly there is no magic bullet for bettering your chances...'cept buying more tickets.  Or picking the right numbers!!

                          Good luck!

                            Down's avatar - Sphere animated2.gif
                            Riverside, Ca
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                            Posted: September 23, 2005, 8:09 am - IP Logged

                            Think,

                            let me see if i understad this...you are saying play $46 in tickets and every play on the ticket has a differant mega number is that right? if you did that would only make your chance of hitting the jackpot like 46:170million the only thing you would get back for sure is $2 for matching the mega number, and another thing you have to think about if you pick your numbers and not QP you have to come up with 5 numbers that have never been drawn before. but i know of a really really good way to pick your 5 numbers, but im not going to tell you Smiley i bet i could get maybe 4+1 or even better if i had $46 to spend o tickets

                             

                            well goodluck with the jackpot, its not that hard to win

                              Bradly_60's avatar - disney37
                              Atlantic Mine, Michigan
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                              Posted: September 23, 2005, 8:42 pm - IP Logged

                              If you buy the 46 mega balls on 46 tickets you cut your odds down to the odds of matching the first 5 numbers (white balls).  Say the mega ball came up as 7.  You have the seven and what you need to win is the first five white balls.  The odds of hitting that are just shy of 4 million.  You gauarantee yourself a return (at least $2)  So really all you have to do is spend $44 to  lower your odds of hitting the jackpot to less then most states jackpot games.  I have started using this strategy when the jackpot is high.

                              Brad